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Note - Cashback often takes a while to payout, bear this in mind when completing offers as you may have to wait to cashout your earnings
When completing these offers don't chase any loses as the cashback will give you a profit with nerly every offer
A short review of each site and some referral links
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Minimum payout is £20
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How to Maximize Profit - IMPORTANT - READ THIS

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Note this is not the poker offer
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Quidco don't offer a sign up bonus, find my ref link at the top of the post if you want to help me out!
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Thanks for reading, hope this of use to some people, happy earning!
submitted by Leth96 to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

$1,100,000 PURPLE Mattress YOLO update

$1,100,000 PURPLE Mattress YOLO update
Alright ladies and Gents here is my 1.1M dollar position as well as my reasoning on why I think it is a safe bet.
TL:DR - Buy 2023 leaps, Sell 35 or 40.00 puts, buy shares. I recommend selling puts for safety.

https://preview.redd.it/wyr8vx2jvgf61.png?width=1698&format=png&auto=webp&s=665127a16e444f6da7b1977e63563bbd1a160dc6

MY Debit spreads

The Hypothesis

Many of you followed some previous posts on PRPL and have made a money, some of you partook in the great nrpling in the summer of 2020 and lost some money.
This update will be quick. I have reduced my total dollar exposure to PRPL but my exposure is now heavily leveraged with options.
Purple recently touched 41.00 per share and has since made a pull back into the 33-37 dollar range. I believe that the next leg up will require a catalyst and I believe there are 2-3 catalysts coming up. I believe 40 is going to be a short term support level and 50 is attainable by year end.

The Catalysts

  • PRPL is on the cusp of opening a new factory
    • Joe Megibow indicated it would open in February and 1-2 machines would come online almost immediately.
    • I expect a press release will occur when this happens
  • PRPL will release a business update
    • Purple didn't give guidance in their november Q3 call. I believe they will issue something soon and if they don't then their conference call will likely occur in the next 5-6 weeks.
  • New Partner announcement
    • I believe Purple is going to lean hard into wholesale this year as it has proven very profitable.
    • A nationwide partnership with Mattress firm would be a catalyst. Currently Purple is in about 800 of mattress firms ~3000 or so stores.
  • Analyst Upgrades
    • WE recently received big upgrades from Oppenheimer, B Riley and Merrill Lynch. I expect 3-4 upgrades in the coming weeks.

The professional price Target - 10 analysts, 10 buy ratings


https://preview.redd.it/6iq6qgxssgf61.png?width=2298&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f531658e3c61c1c77edd6ddf7b87563cb006cfa

The Growth Projections don't line up with the massive capacity expansion


Analysts are basing price targets on only 23% growth in 2021
  • Prpl ended 2020 with 7 Machines and Joe Megibow indicated 4 machines would come online in 2021 with the possibility of a 5th and 6th also coming online.
  • PRPL indicated they would be looking for their 3rd factory in 2021 as they would continue to expand.
  • I estimate that Purple will conservatively have ~9.5 machines worth of capacity for 2021 and optimistically 10.25 machines worth of capacity. This would lead me to believe purple will likely achieve 855-1.02B of potential revenue. For sake of projections I will assume they guide on the lower end and over deliver, like always.
  • Purple will likely end 2021 with 1.2B in capacity going into 2022.
  • Purple has grown from 5M in revenue in 2015 to nearly 700M in 2020...... Dear lord, if you don't understand how impressive this is for a damn mattress company then GTFO.
https://preview.redd.it/dznrpbgdvgf61.png?width=1340&format=png&auto=webp&s=828dd09b1b4567530611daca03b238618324d922

Total addressable Market and strong online presence

Purple continues to have strong web traffic growth.

https://preview.redd.it/5qy635xqwgf61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b028c74a8ddbe869146fd2af4e7f994c7510197

The Moat

  • Purple has ~100 patents on their products
  • Purple's biggest competitor licenses purple's tech.... Think about that.
  • Purple is digitally native and has vast digital presence and is continuing to improve Cost of acquisition.
  • PRPL sources most products domestically and they were less affected than most bed manufacturers when the spring shortage occurred in 2020.

Be safe out there. This isn't advice and not all of you can get behind a mattress company, so do your owns research. This is my position as I believe purple will continue to grow healthily even with macro trends being unfavorable.
submitted by dhsmatt2 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[$GME] Aprendizados sobre o caso: Shorts/Short Squeezes e "livre mercado" [2021]

[$GME] Aprendizados sobre o caso: Shorts/Short Squeezes e
DISCLAIMER (30/01/2021): O autor sabe que o que está acontecendo na $GME é uma bolha, que vai estourar. Não aposte seu dinheiro nela a menos que esteja TOTALMENTE PREPARADO para perder praticamente tudo.
Estão rolando casos de pessoas no WSB que estão apostando tudo nela e vão perder tudo. Acesse essa Thread pra você não ser uma delas: Clique Aqui!
Num mundo menos imperfeito, eu diria que boa parte da população é imune à esse tipo de cilada. Mas no nosso, já sabemos como é...
E ai tchurma, beleza?
Seguinte, eu acho que aqui percebemos várias lições que podem ser tiradas por essa porrada que o WSB ta dando nos Hedge Funds super shorteados. Proponho colocarmos aqui as lições que aprendemos disso para lembrarmos disso eventualmente (daqui uns anos) quando esse movimento de super shorteamento acontecer de novo (por que é cíclico).
Como eu sou historiador, a gente acaba perdendo esse tipo de conhecimento com o tempo (venhamos e convenhamos, quando boa parte do reddit aqui lembrou de 2008, a gente já estava SUPER atrasado pra entrar ali). Eu queria fazer dessa thread uma espécia de pequeno arquivo sobre o caso, que é emblemático, para futuras referências.
Sinto que isso é uma coisa que falta no fórum, estudos de caso desse tipo que sejam mais concisos e quem contextualizem e expliquem o que aconteceu com relação à esse problema. Isso é bom pra estudos e bom para nos deixar preparados para uma próxima (Nada impede da galera criar uma watchlist para o futuro).
Quero sugestões também sobre outros aprendizados que podemos colocar nesse tópico, pra ele tentar virar uma futura referência.
================================== Lições do caso $GME ================================
1. Aprendemos o que é o short (pode não parecer, mas eu aprendi MUITO mais durante esse evento do que lendo sobre o short e como funcionava). Como tem muita gente nova entrando, esse exemplo extremado mostrou o que é o short, como ele funciona e os extremos o que causam.
SHORT: Visa o lucro do curto prazo, através do aluguel de ações. Funciona da seguinte maneira: Você aluga uma ação de uma pessoa, visando, no curto prazo que essa ação se desvalorize. Assim que você pega a ação, você a vende, e espera o preço cair para recomprar a ação, devolver ao locatário e embolsar a diferença.
EXEMPLO: $GME = US$ 40. Quem tinha a ação alugou a ação, cobrando juros sobre isso. O locador então vende $GME a US$ 40. Como ele espera a ação cair, vamos imaginar que ele pretende comprar a ação à US$ 20, já que ele precisa devolver essa ação. Quando o preço-alvo é atingido, ele compra ação, devolve a ação, desconta os valores de juros pagos pela locação e embolsa o restante.
US$ 40 = valor de venda da ação
US$ 20 = Preço Alvo de recompra da ação
US$ 2 = valor hipotético de interesses de aluguel da ação (varia de acordo com o valor da ação. (by u/AdjustedSage: Sobre aluguel de ações: a comissão é paga em % que vaira de acordo com disponibilidade, liquidez e saúde do papel. Quanto maior o risco, maior a comissão).
US$ 40 - US$ 20 - US$ 2 = US$ 18 dólares de lucro que ficam para o locador da ação.
EDIT by u/-NVLL-: "O short é um mecanismo excelente para regulação do mercado, não há nada de intrinsecamente ruim nele. Essas idéias que os influenciadores do "Short Squeeze IRB" estão disseminando, que é uma prática nociva para quem tem ação, que abaixa o preço e portanto reduz os ganhos dos pobres detentores da ação... Bullshit.
Se a empresa vai bem, isso vai ser demonstrado nos múltiplos e os preços vão se ajustar. O que acontece é que geralmente os shorts são baseados em fundamentos, como no caso da IRB, em que o motivo da queda foram as fraudes, não a posição da Squadra. Os acionistas estão putos com a parte errada desse caso.
O short pode ser usado numa estratégia Long and Short, por exemplo, para ajustar as exposições de acordo com a estratégia do gestor, não só para alavancar ou ativismo.
Essas idéias que surgiram reforçam duas coisas que me deixam com bastante apreensão: (a) o descasamento das ações com a empresa real, o que importa é compra/venda, quem vendeu baixou o preço, não importa os resultados da empresa, fundamentos não importam; (b) a condenação da posição vendida, stonks only go up, mercado cada vez mais exuberante.
Como o Sven Carlin mencionou recentemente num vídeo, uma das certezas é que quanto maior o preço das ações, menor o retorno futuro. Então ações caras privilegiam quem já as têm, não quem está comprando agora (meu caso). Tem todo um conflito geracional e discussão sobre as políticas desde 2008 e de que está se deixando a conta pra ser paga pelas gerações futuras. Pra mim isso é muito mais importante do que um fundo estar vendido numa ação cujo plano de negócios é obsoleto."
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2. Aprendemos o que é o short squeeze e como ele acaba ocorrendo. Empresas super shorteadas são bons alvos para esse tipo de ação, porém aparecem de maneira inconstante (o último foi o da VW de 2008, durante a crise ou antes). Reforça os pontos que Warren Buffet fala sobre avareza e por que se tem que ter medo durante a avareza.
O caso da $GME é complicado por que foi uma conjuntura de fatores únicos que ocorrem raramente neste caso. $GME era uma empresa física de jogos que tinha receita boa, mas não estava gerando lucros e era prevista a sua falência por conta da COVID-19 em 2020.
Com isso, o Hedge Fund Melvin Capital, entre outros, decidiram shortear a empresa (conhecido no Brasil como venda descoberta, quando ele vende uma ação alugada sem ainda ter a reposição para cobrir). A grande diferença entre o Brasil e os EUA é que a CVM não permite que se shorteie mais do que o total de ações disponíveis da empresa, o que aconteceu na $GME.

EXEMPLO: A $GME tinha 69,75 milhões de ações (+/-) de ações totais da empresa. Disso, 27,33% estavam presos na tesouraria da empresa (Ações do conselho, ações do CEO, CFO, bônus para funcionários, etc), ou seja, em torno de 19,06 milhões de ações estavam na mão da empresa.
Outros fundos de long position (LONG: posições de longo prazo, de 5 anos para mais) detinham em torno de 38,94% do total de ações da $GME, ou seja, em torno 27,16 milhões de ações.
O que significa que 69,75 - 19,06 - 27,16 = 23,53 milhões de ações estão circulando livremente, sendo vendidas ou compradas por quem interessar (A gente chama de Free Float, mas ai a gente conta as ações totais menos as ações de tesouraria apenas).
Isso não seria um problema em si, porém a situação que torna a $GME única é que nos EUA, a SEC (Security and Exchange Commission, a CVM americana) permite que se possa ter mais opções de short do que o total de ações existentes de free float da empresa.
Pelo que constam os números, a $GME estava shorteada em 140%. Isso significa que o montante de ações que posição de short era da ordem 68,448 milhões. Entretanto, o número de ações disponíveis efetivamente para compra e venda era de apenas 1/3 do total de shorts.
Adicionamos a isso um problema, o volume de ações que circulam diariamente pela $GME. No melhor dos dias da memetização do $GME, o máximo de ações que fluiram na bolsa era entre 10-11 milhões de ações em um dia! Para efeito de comparação, a média dos últimos 90 dias era de pouco mais de 23 milhões de ações. Ou seja, em uma semana, se tornou uma ação praticamente sem liquidez, para uma ação extremamente líquida.
Por conta do WSB e do u/DeepFuckingValue, percebemos que o que aconteceu foi uma onda de compra de MILHÕES de ações, de uma hora para outra, por usuários que decidiram simplesmente segurar as ações, o que força o preço da ação para cima. Não vou estimar aqui, mas vamos dizer que nessa semana, praticamente 10 milhões de ações foram parar na mão de milhões de "retardados degenerados" (jeito que a galera do WSB se apelida carinhosamente).
Se isso foi constatado, a ação shorteada agora tem uma razão de 6 ações alugadas para 1 disponível para venda no mercado. Isso forçou os fundos a comprar agora ações consideravelmente caras, a fim de evitar que encaressesem mais.
Voltando a ideia do short apresentada anteriormente, SE o preço de saída deles era de US$ 20 dólares, gerando US$ 18 dólares de lucro, agora os fundos estão sendo forçados a comprar ações, a preços que variam de US$ 115 a US$ 460 dólares, tendo prejuízos que podem ir de US$ 97 até US$ 438. Por. ação. shorteada.
Adicionando MAIS UM problema aos Hedges, por conta da falta de liquidez dos mercados, é IMPOSSÍVEL O HEDGES SAÍREM DAS POSIÇÕES DE UMA HORA PARA A OUTRA, POIS NÃO HÁ AÇÕES DISPONÍVEIS O SUFICIENTE NO MERCADO! Por conta do volume transacionado de APENAS 11 milhões de ações por dia, os hedges hipoteticamente levariam 6 dias inteiros comprando ações para sair da posição, que só tende a aumentar de valor a cada dia que passa!
Estamos falando de bilhões de dólares em prejuízo para esses fundos abutres, que tem mais é que tomar no cu mesmo.
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3. Mostrou que os sardinhas, motivados e relativamente bem organizados, podem causar estragos importantes num sistema como esses, que claramente se demonstra voltado para os hedge funds.
Não tenham pena pelas perdas bilionárias desses fundos abutres. Essa galera é especuladora de um nível que o WSB não consegue bater. O que o WSB fez hoje não é nada em comparação com as crises que fundos desse tipo trouxeram (especificamente a crise do subprime americano de 2008 que ocorreu ao vender ativos pobres como se fossem ativos bons).
A única coisa que o WSB fez foi o que fundos desses fazem com outros fundos em apostas contrárias. O grande problema é de quem esses fundos arrecadam verbas para fazer essas jogadas shorteadas de altíssimo risco, porém com grandes chances de lucrar horrores, enquanto auxiliam a afundar empresas com problemas financeiros.
Temos que lembrar, apesar dos seus problemas, a $GME empresa 50.000 pessoas ao redor do mundo, e com as ações sendo derrubadas propositadamente pelos hedges shorteadores, isso implica em dificuldades para a empresa shorteada de adquirir empréstimos, ter revisões de notas para aumentar o preço da ação, que poderia servir para aumentar a arrecadação de verba por parte da empresa através da colocação de mais ações no mercado.
Overshorting (acima de 100% do total de ações) NÃO é uma prática considerada ilegal pela SEC. Não sabemos ainda as ramificações com relação à isso após esse episódio.
EDIT by u/marcos_souza: "[...] O mecanismo de se operar vendido é importante para evitar bolhas e manter o equilíbrio do mercado. Foi utilizado de forma abusiva nesse caso por essa possibilidade de overshort que existe no mercado americano.
A crise de 2008 foi muito além dos Hedge Funds também, a SEC que deveria regular o mercado foi omissa, as agências de rating tinha interesses e incentivos conflitantes com a atividades deles e continuaram dando rates triple A pros bonds mesmo sem avaliar o conteúdo dos CFOs entre outras coisas. Resumidamente empresas mal administradas podem vir a falir e isso não é culpa de investidores ou algo necessariamente ruim."
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4. Demonstrou com clareza que, quando há fundos de investimentos shorteados, eles mexerão mundos e fundos para diminuir a volatilidade para impedir a implosão do fundo bilionário altamente especulativo.
A posição que os caras tinham em relação à $GME é considerada praticamente ilegal dentro das perspectivas da SEC. Entretanto, essa não seria a pior prática que esses hedge funds fizeram nessa situação toda.
Diversos usuários reportaram na quinta-feira dia 28/01/2021 que diversas corretoras (TD Ameritrade, Avenues Security, Robinhood, entre outras) impediram que os compradores pudessem comprar MAIS ações, alegando volatilidade e segurança para os usuários da plataforma.
A Robinhood, inclusive, começou a fechar posições alavancadas pelos usuários, nos pontos mais baixos da cotação de preço, com o intuito de "proteger os usuários". Além de fechar nas menores cotações do dia, vimos também que ela não permitia a compra, somente a venda, diferentemente de outras, que pararam o trading completamente da ação.
O Detalhe sórdido de tudo isso: A plataforma Robinhood parece que é detida em quase 40% pela Melvin Capital, uma das empresas que estavam shorteando fortemente a $GME, o que configura em clara manipulação de mercado caso isso seja considerado real. Se isso vai render uma multa ou uma punição real, ninguém sabe ainda.
EDIT by u/marcos_souza: "A Robinhood não cobra taxas pra quem opera na plataforma, ou seja eles ganham dinheiro de alguma outra forma. Que forma é essa? Vendendo o fluxo de ordens dos clientes para market makers como o Citadel (Esse sim é responsável por cerca de 40% da receita do RH). Os MM ganham dinheiro no spread das ordens e pagam uma parte disso pra RH.
O bloqueio do trade de algumas ações " do wsb" GME,AMC,BB etc foi, segundo os executivos do RH, por uma questão de liquidez. Quando alguém compra uma ação o dinheiro é debitado da conta 2 dias depois da compra. Alguém precisa garantir que esse dinheiro vai estar lá no D+2 para cobrir essa ordem.
Devido essa natureza descasada da criação das ordens e efetiva liquidação financeira, as entidades que fazem essa liquidação (equivalentes a CETIP no Brasil), DTCC no caso dos EUA, exigem que as corretoras tenham uma certa % do volume negociado de um ativo para cobrir possíveis problemas financeiros dessas ordens.
Esse % aumenta com a volatilidade do ativo devido a regulação do mercado, dessa forma como esses papeis estão tradando com uma vol absurdamente alta essa "margem" exigida cresceu até um ponto que o RH precisou pegar 1BI em empréstimo pra ter liquidez e voltar a liberar o trade desses papeis. (Quanto a liquidação de posições alavancadas não vou discutir pq n tem como saber se o RH já tinha feito chamada de margem antes e os caras não tinha coberto, o que justificaria 100% eles encerrarem a posição)."
Aqui vemos exatamente o que muitos, desde libertários até comunistas imaginavam mas nunca tinham as provas concretas: O mercado é manipulado, com o intuito claro que gerar uma transferência de renda dos mais pobres para os mais ricos, na melhor das hipóteses (crise de 2008 e o grande Bailout), ou com o intuito de MINIMIZAR as perdas de bilionários donos de fundos, com a quebra geral das famigeradas "regras de mercado livre", na pior das hipóteses ($GME 2021).
Esse é um exemplo que tem que ser guardado na memória de todos com relação à essa falácia. Na era da informação, a manipulação ficou escancarada, já que todos agora podem acessar as informações e ingerências em tempo real.
Se informação é o melhor investimento, estarmos munidos desse pedaço da história para nos precavermos posteriormente ou até tirarmos um lucro sacaneando os sacaneadores, veremos o que o futuro nos aguarda.

https://twitter.com/CitronResearch/status/1355152873487798274?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3Acitronresearch%7Ctwcon%5Etimelinechrome&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcitronresearch.com%2F
Isso aqui não significa que eles vão parar de shortear o mercado na melhor oportunidade. Significa que NÓS NÃO VAMOS FICAR SABENDO QUANDO ESSES FDP vão fazer algo do gênero. Essa é a mensagem de tudo isso aqui.
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5. Criou-se toda um drama de "plebeu" x bilionário (revolução), o que aprendemos com isso? Que plebeu dos estados unidos tem $5k sobrando pra brinca de aposta, quero ser plebeu lá tbm, como q faz ? Tem que nascer de novo? (by u/golfinhosardinha)
A grande questão de todo esse problema remete 2008, uma memória do tempo presente, em que banqueiros bilionários brincaram com as poupanças de muitos americanos com o intuito de ganhar as taxas administrativas e bônus por metas que os mercados financeiros estabeleciam.
As pessoas que usam a bolsa hoje em dia tratam-na como cassino e ela tem uma lógica. Só que a grande mentira que é contada para todos os "plebeus" é que se você errar, você perde tudo, que é dado como máxima do sistema capitalista.
Essa situação toda só abriu as portas de um problemas endêmico dos mercados financeiros que já se suspeitava (com direito a teóricos como Marx, Piket e muitos outros economistas de corrente marxista ou neo-marxistas comentavam: o sistema financeiro busca privilegiar os burgueses (nesse caso, burguesia no sentido do século XX) em detrimento do proletário.
Ninguém aqui deve se enganar achando que as massas são adoradoras de Karl Marx. Essas massas são a favor do capitalismo sim, mas até quem é comunista que nem eu entende a questão das regras do jogo que é imposto nesse sistema. E essas regras, suspeitava-se sem provas concretas que eram um jogo jogado pelos ricos para transferir renda para si, ou no mínimo se proteger.
2008 afetou forte o mundo, mas os alívios de 800 bilhões de dólares para banqueiros que usavam a bolsa como um cassino enquanto americanos aos milhões perdiam suas casas marcaram uma geração.
No caso brasileiro, sentimos os efeitos e consequencias em menor escala no consciente coletivo. Além disso, o poder de compra do americano é super potencializado por estar nos EUA e receber em dólar, além dos salários semanais, ALÉM AGORA DE 2020 E 2021 A entrega de dinheiro estímulos de graça para a população, que faz essas apostas do WSB possíveis.
Achar que o brasileiro consegue imitar um potencial igual ao americano (IRBR3) é desconsiderar quão sui generis essa questão toda da $GME foi. Não se pode nem comparar com 2008, mas as raízes do $GME está intrinsecamente ligada às respostas dadas em 2008 pela administração Bush e, posteriormente, Obama, além de como a pandemia foi lidada pelas administrações Trump e, agora, Biden, com super estímulos trilionários econômicos
EDIT: Após reler os comentários, há um ponto extra a ser colocado. Quem ta no Wall Street Bets tem internet de alguma forma, tem dinheiro de alguma forma, e está apostando querendo ver a grana crescer mais (muitos apostaram economias ali). Não sinto que podemos dizer que são a "plebe" de verdade (pobres e miseráveis da sociedade americana), mas a narrativa é cativante, por isso, é necessário cuidado.
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6. Testemunhamos que a raiva é um fator mais forte do que o medo ou a ganância quando se trata de sentimentos humanos e o mercado. (by u/arretadodapeste)
Temos sempre que levar em consideração sempre que economia é uma ciência humana, que tem a peça mais imprevisível de estudo, que é o homem. Quem não entende essa problemática, dificilmente entende por que seres humanos tomaram determinadas decisões em determinadas épocas.
Podemos usar a revolução francesa como exemplo, mesmo que político, porém com uma grande pitada econômica (escassez de trigo na França feudal gerando uma crise de fome, conjuntamente com um governo que preferia manter as aparências e potências do que resolver a crise em si "Se não tem pão, que comam brioches!" Maria Antonieta, degolada depois na revolução francesa).
A raiva e a violência se mostraram grandes impulsionadores da humanidade. Sem ambos, não teríamos tido as revoluções do século XIX, ou os processos de descolonização da América, África e Ásia.
Novamente, 2008 foi um baque muito grande no psicológico americano, ao meu ver (de estrangeiro, morador do Brasil, que não vive a realidade americana). A crença no capitalismo como grande motor propulsor da humanidade e do progresso parece que foi quebrado ali, e o que muita gente mais voltada para a esquerda suspeitava só se confirmou ali (bancos e Wall Street fazendo a transferência de renda do pobre para o rico, só ver os índices de desigualdade social no mundo que tenderam a aumentar).
Num sistema meritocrático, como se acredita o capitalismo, quem fracassa tem somente a si mesmo para culpar, e se essa fosse verdadeiramente a regra PARA TODOS, aceitaríamos mais facilmente os nossos destinos.
Porém esse episódio só reafirma o que muitos do espectro da esquerda falam e até quem sabe verdadeiramente como funciona o jogo: Que os caras de cima jogam pesado e sujo, dependendo da situação, para permanecerem onde estão. Pior, vimos crimes sendo cometidos nesse episódio do $GME que deveria fazer a SEC cair matando nos caras, e até agora nem uma nota mais forte.
ISSO, na minha opinião, que deixa todo mundo desgostoso com isso tudo. Todo mundo finge que o sistema vale para todos, MUITOS sabem que não é assim, mas parece que nos revoltamos apenas quando a ilusão é quebrada (meio que tentando nós mesmos mantermos a ilusão como um todo).
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7. Livre mercado na bolsa nunca existiu. A maior parte é fachada pra transferir riquezas. by u/BebadoDemais
Infelizmente essa é a constatação que muitos americanos crentes no mercado estão realizando de maneira facilitada agora. Após ver um vídeo no youtube, de um reparador de produtos apple, mencionando um fato, temos que levar em consideração o seguinte: 2008 foi foda, mas explicar derivativos e opções é uma coisa consideravelmente complicada, já que a galera que sabe como funciona não sabe explicar sem tecnicismos.
Se a turma que sabe o que acontece tem dificuldade de explicar em termos leigos, imagina que não sabe de nada de economia. (Mark Bloch, um historiador da escola de annales da França, corrente da história usada bastante no Brasil atualmente, disse que o historiador tem que saber explicar e falar com Doutos e Leigos). Até você entender como essa porra toda funciona, você sente que é uma fachada para transferir riquezas.
O que fizeram NESTE episódio provou que, para muitos fundos grandes, é isso mesmo. JP Morgan não está muito interessada no que os plebeus aqui tem a dizer em relação ao quão injusto o mercado é, desde que eles não sejam injustiçados. 2008 traz esse sentimento de volta: Os grandes bancos receberam um bailout. Deveriam ter vindo com cláusulas para devolver integralmente o dinheiro para os correntistas a partir de X data.
Entretanto, essa seria uma solução praticamente impossível de fazer, por que ia exigir tantos trilhões que quebraria os EUA (e entrariamos ai em problemas de geopolitica, estratégia externa e diplomacia que não vale entrar para a discussão).
Essa é a maior lição que se tem que tirar daqui: A Bolsa PODE ser manipulada, assim como você é um otário que acha que sabe como as coisas funcionam e tem que se precaver. Estudar e entender como os mecanismos funcionam te ajuda a não morrer afogado quando sacanagens assim ocorrem.
Você não precisa ser fã de bolsa, nem gostar do capitalismo, mas saber como não morrer afogado no sistema que você vive te ajuda muito.
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8. Ninguém resiste a um esquema de get rich quick**. Em janeiro do ano passado o wsb tinha 800k membros. Um mês atrás era 1,5M. Hoje são mais de 6 milhões.** by u/Pharaohs_Serpent
Percebemos que não é somente o BR que ta desesperado procurar pelo pote de ouro. Sabemos que a gigantesca maioria que ta dentro do WSB ta segurando esperando lucrar ainda mais (a avareza vai comer muita gente).
Get Rich quick schemes são a panacéia pros desesperados. E levando em consideração Brasil e Estados Unidos, devido às más escolhas políticas do povo (sim, não podemos dizer que o povo não tem culpa, político não nasce no cargo, é votado lá), temos muitos desesperados, e lá também.
As ilusões de que o dinheiro resolveria todos os problemas e tornaria as pessoas felizes também é uma busca maluca em torno de algo que não vai necessariamente te satisfazer, seja espiritualmente, seja psicologicamente.
Quem não tem dinheiro e péssimos hábitos, quando tem, só potencializa esses péssimos hábitos. Esses esquemas são um mal de uma sociedade em que nunca o que você tem é suficiente, que o vizinho sempre é melhor que você, que você é um merda e você vai ser um bosta pra vida inteira. Sim, essa crise é também de identificação da sociedade com o que ela quer ser, o que ela prioriza de fato.
A gente vê anúncio de trazer o dia inteiro no youtube, e se você acha que você vai ser o espertão que vai quebrar a banca, você já vai dar dar dinheiro pra outro. Se você entende que você não é a batata mais esperta dentro do saquinho, você já é cético o suficiente para talvez se proteger.
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A ideia é que se mais gente tiver aprendizados que pegaram desse episódio todo, posta ai que eu junto no tópico, por que são nos detalhes que eles nos matam.
submitted by Dkafamus to investimentos [link] [comments]

We Forgot About Trey

Trey Lance has been placed on the back burner of QB prospects. COVID ruined the 2020 NDSU season, preventing it from going more than one game. In that game Trey Lance was labeled as inaccurate, one read, and too raw to be a top pick in the NFL. Shit man, it was a bad game. No need to lie. But we completely removed his amazing 2019 from our minds and decided one game from our most recent memory would dictate any future conversation around him. We took 30 passing attempts after a non-existent offseason training program and decided “Welp, Lance is decidedly behind Fields and Wilson.” I resent that notion. After perusing some of his highlights I became intrigued by this mystery man. Small school, big arm, crazy athleticism, a bit raw, a bit of an accuracy issue. Reminds me of someone who recently had 50 total touchdowns and led a perennial loser to the AFC Championship game. Of course, that’s a weak and simplistic comparison that doesn’t really paint a picture as to what Lance can do and his status as an NFL prospect. I do think it shows that drafting for tools can be beneficial if you believe in your staff and GM. That’s something Lance has in spades. You want to talk about arm talent, mobility/athleticism, throwing power, and pocket presence and Lance needs to be mentioned as having top of the class ability in all these areas. I have combed through the tape and saw who I think we should take and 2nd overall (if we stay there). Obviously I'm a layman, this is for discussion. But I will be annoying over the next few months as I pound the table for Lance and I will be referencing this post pretty often. If you dont like Lance, let's talk, I'm not a stuck up asshole. I'll hear you out. Now, let's watch some videos.
CONS--
I am high on Lance. Though it would be dishonest if we didn’t discuss the issues he has in his game. Despite the red flags, they weren’t something I saw as impossible to fix. His accuracy problems stem from a reliance on his arm, wonky mechanics, and sometimes trying to operate too quickly. Things that can be hidden by scheme or completely fixed with practice. He also had a tendency to throw from an off-angle or not be set when he makes a throw. Inexperience may have a lot to do with it. I only have a couple clips here to display what I’m talking about but this is really the crux of his issues and simply showing plays that look exactly the same for the same reason seems like a waste of time. I’m not saying these are his only bad plays. Absolutely not. But if you look at a Trey Lance lowlight reel, they’ll all look like this. I would bet on that.
Let's start with a missed a deep pass here vs UCA. The pressure is in his face but the guy is wide open. Hitting this would have been a TD. If we really want to be nitpicky, the WR could have adjusted to the ball in the air a bit better but Lance still needs to be more accurate. The ball can sail on him. It’s a problem every single strong arm QB has at times. One Lance has more often than I would like. Now, UCA was probably his worst game. All of these clips are from UCA and Montana State. Those were the games where I could find clear examples of his faults. This one is a simple screen that he misses because he rushes and doesn’t set his feet. Here is another example of him failing to hit a WR because he isn’t set despite being able to. The WR should have caught it but it also should have been a better throw. I think he rushed this and immediately decided to take the tough throw instead of running with the ball or looking elsewhere. I blame throws like this on the limited practice time and training camp. He hit these throws in 2019. A little too much is better than not enough, but still a wide open guy who should have a TD. Too much oomf. Goes back to the original issue I mentioned above. I’m including this highlight because someone would inevitably bring up his first INT in 300+ pass attempts and only one of his college career. I feel like a INT% of 0.3% is pretty damn good but what do I know. Anyway, it is an example of poor decision making but it’s not one you often see in his film. Let me reiterate this. Trey Lance does not make poor decisions. His arm also gets him into trouble sometimes. He relies on it too much here. Almost throws it like a pitcher. It’s caught but it’s not placed well. His deep ball issues are best illustrated here and here. He just misses a 60+ yard bomb in the first clip. A hair less and it's a spectacular TD. I mean just missed him. Then there’s the second one. Just a poor throw with too much oomf and not down the sideline enough. The WR had a step and a play could have been made but Lance made a bad throw. However, he followed these up with a perfect toss that is shown in the deep bombs section. I actually like this miss because I see this being a play that works. He’s just off. He’s not missing these guys by a country mile. They’re a little behind or just a bit to the wrong side. That’s why I think it’s simply him using too much arm and a coach working with him on using his lower body and hips will make him dangerous. This is where he displays poor accuracy, unfortunately, and why he has the reputation. These are still issues and they need to be fixed. Take a look at our final play in this section. He hurries, uses his arm exclusively, throws off balance, and delivers a poor ball into the ground. These are his accuracy problems. This is THE red flag about Lance. What I see is someone who needs some ironing out and coaching. I think LaFleur’s offense will be perfect for Lance to use his strengths and hide his weaknesses. The only other issue I often see is that he doesn’t have the volume. That’s fair as well. He quite literally has 318 passing attempts. That being said, he would likely have been closer to 600 if NDSU wasn’t forced to cancel the season and I disagree with the notion we should be holding the volume against him. Was Wilson considered a potential top QB before his 336 attempts this season? Not an apples to apples comparison, no. I’m just saying that using something outside the control of the player to evaluate them as a prospect is weak. It should be considered; like the supporting cast of Mac Jones, the opponents of Zach WIlson, or the significant coaching/player difference between the programs at Clemson and OSU compared to other prospects. What we should be focusing on is what they can control and Lance’s biggest issue is his accuracy, tendency to throw off balance when he doesn't have to, and mechanics. Now… lets have some fun.
ELITE ATHLETICISM AND RUNNING ABILITY
The most obvious of Lance’s strengths is his incredible athletic ability. On designed runs like this one and this one vs UCA he displays excellent vision, balance, and strength. No one will bring him down with just an arm. He’s slippery. Watch how he breaks 4 tackles on his way to a long rushing TD. I understand he’s not going against Alabama or Clemson or whoever but he’s breaking these tackles like nothing. His 6’4” 230 pound frame allows him to shrug off most hits. He’s speedy enough to escape the CB and strong enough to break a DT tackle attempt. Another example right here vs Butler. Hits the hole, breaks a tackle and zooms away. The speed he has is amazing too. On this play vs UND he’s outside before anyone notices, makes a hesitation move, has the pack catch up, and then puts on the jets for an extra 15+ yards. Here vs JMU he is able to break outside against a corner and outrun him for 10 yards despite the defender having the angle. Lance is also excellent at using his quickness to avoid pressure and he makes good decisions to run. He isn’t breaking down vs the pressure and running scared. He runs when it’s smart to run. On this play vs JMU he has eyes in the back of his head, senses the pressure and avoids the sack. He doesn’t just give up on the play. He still looks downfield before realizing it’s time to get the hell out. His speed allows him to get 10 yards on the play. From 2020 vs UCA doing the same thing. This is a great display of everything I’m talking about. Avoids the defender, breaks tackles, picks up speed and will not be denied. Finally, my favorite running play he had. This is a 3rd & 23. Why is it in here? Because Lance makes it a 45 yard TD run. He is capable of a big play at any time. Legs or arm. Which is exactly why you’re here. You wanna see some BOMBS!!!! Well, we’ll get there. Calm the fuck down spaz.
LET’S DISPEL ONCE AND FOR ALL THE FICTION THAT TREY LANCE DOESN’T READ THE FIELD. TREY LANCE READS THE FIELD.
Anyone who says Lance is a one read QB or can’t read the field is naive. Please note that word choice. There are moments where he gets “lost” or sticks on one read too long but I don’t think these matter all that much. It's something every single QB prospect will do at times. He doesn’t make poor decisions and can get out of the jam with his legs (see above). Let’s start here vs Butler. He looks at his first read, covered. Second read, covered. Third read, close enough. Fits the ball into a tight window for the TD. Here vs WIU he quickly comes off his first read because the safety up top was bearing down, throws a rope to his second option in stride for a long TD. You could hang laundry on that toss. Against UD he displays an ability to make a quick decision as he doesn’t wait for this primary read to come open, he moves on to the next one and makes a decision. More? Sure! This play vs WIU he doesn’t force something that’s not there. He sees the defense dropping back to cover the deep pass so he hits his safety blanket and takes the positive play. There’s a reason he only had 1 INT in his college career. Same game, just a bit later here. He scans the field and again sees that the entire defense appears to drop back while keeping a spy from the DL on Lance. He corks a nice toss on the run as soon as the man comes open. Speaking of a throw on the run, this play was excellent in slow motion, watch it at .25 or .5 speed. He escapes the pocket, keeps his eyes up, and then goes through the progressions to find the open man. Beautiful. Not enough? OK! This play vs ISU is another display of Lance’s quick decision making and ability to find the open man. This displays what I really love about him. No hesitation. Quick decisions. Gets the ball out and fast. He keeps his eyes downfield so damn well. Even when he evades pressure, he is looking upfield and trying to find an open WR. Another good example of this is on this play vs UND. He can freeze a defense with his legs and he has the presence of mind to make the right throw. This next one isn’t really in line with the rest of the section but I want to show how much strength he displays by breaking the tackle in the backfield, staying composed, and finding the open man for a TD.
He can also fit the ball into some tight windows. He has such an amazing arm that he can zip the ball past defenders and puts it exactly where he needs it to be. He isn’t doing this 100% of the time but he shows the ability. Here against UD he gets out of the pocket and makes a good read before putting the ball right on the receiver. Earlier in the game he makes this nice toss that should have been caught. Back shoulder and only in a spot where his guy can get it. On this throw vs JMU he does look stiff but it’s a nice display of the arm talent he has. He gets it just above the first defender and gets it to his guy in between the two others downfield. He hits this pass on the sideline with speed. It’s not a showcase of reading the field but he does put this ball on a rope to a perfect spot. The sideline creates a moment of opportunity that’s only a yard or two wide. Beautiful placement. For my final trick, I’ll leave this excellent toss with no additional comment. Italian style hand kiss for emphasis.
ARMS LIKE THIS CAUSED THE COLD WAR
These last two bits will be pure fun. These are his known strengths. This is where I think he separates himself from Wilson and Fields. Trey lance has a cannon. Now, Justin Fields has a cannon too. Like this bad Larry. Zach Wilson also has a cannon. Like this motherfucker. But Lance… Lance is otherworldly. When we’re talking about arm talent, what exactly do we mean? When I think of an amazing arm, I think of a guy who can just sling it with speed and accuracy from all angles and places on the field. Like this dime from 30 yards out on the run. An absolute laser. A very similar example is on this play vs WIU that was unfortunately called back due to penalty. Senses the pressure and delivers a howitzer on the run to the end zone from 25 yards out. I watched a lot of these in slow motion and it’s crazy how good they look at 1x. I was also impressed at this throw vs UD where he’s falling backwards and still lasers it to the back of the endzone to the correct side of the crossing receiver. With the hit the receiver absorbs, it’s fair to assume this is falling on the ground if it’s thrown to the other side. The ability to get that kind of strength on a throw like that is unique. Another back foot toss vs ISU in this video. I know it’s only a screen but the zip he can get on a pass like this when he’s moving away from the play is just something. It’s a joy to watch. The ability of his arm is best displayed on the run. Here vs UD we get the best of both his arm and his ability to fit it into tight windows. Against the sideline he gets it to the perfect spot with THUNDER. Lets stay on UD for a bit, shall we? Here he rifles it between a triangle of defenders in a perfect spot. I honestly cannot get over this kid’s arm and how powerful it is. I also picked up a sneak peak at another under the radar prospect in this game. Now, they’re probably some years away and could use some training but look at them get this ball and quickly rocket it to the sideline. Back to Trey. Our last two plays for this part are just wonderful. This one is pure arm. The fact he relies on it so much isn’t always a bad thing. He’s rolling out left and making this throw leaning backwards. Still able to get it to his man with velocity. Finally, the play that led me down this rabbit hole. The improv. The pocket presence. The eyes downfield. The reads. The beautiful deep ball to the open man. He’s a freak.
GO WAY FUCKIN LONG
Yeah, the moment you’ve all been waiting for. This is for shits and gigs now. We’re having fun in this section. Deep balls galore. If you don’t want to watch straight up porn, avoid these last plays. Let's start a little shorter with this beaut over the top against ISU. Corner of the end zone from the pocket with a beautiful arc. Yes, I timestamped this at one second. Yes, it’s a highlight video. But oh my God look at this wonderful toss into the receiver’s bread basket.From under center nonetheless! It came down at almost a 90 degree angle. Against ISU he puts this pass in the perfect spot on a guy who beat his man. Yeah, he misses these sometimes. But this is a beauty for a TD and something I believe he can do consistently. Plus look how easy he makes a 45 yard pass look. This incompletion was a beauty as well. He put it right on the guy’s hands on a perfect throw from the pocket. An NFL player will likely bring this in. A… Chris Godwin, maybe? Maybe an Allen Robinson? How about a Denzel Mims? Anywho… he probably could have placed this pass in a better spot. The pessimist would say it’s underthrown. The optimist would say that if he puts it too far inside and the ball ricochets off the defender’s helmet. Either way, it’s a 50 yard completion and the team has the ball at the 3 yard line. That’s a positive. I love watching him tool on UD. A solid highlight reel could be made from his tape in this game alone. Watch the angle on this deep ball. Another beautiful angle over the defender and hitting the WR in his hands. Once again, an NFL caliber WR would catch this in stride and take it to the house. That’s something to keep in mind when watching Wilson as well. These guys are accentuated by their competition but also held back by their team. Now for something completely different. This incompletion is so, so, so impressive. The ball never leaves the screen. Like, what!?!? This is Josh Allen and Patty Mahomes level arm strength. Think I’m exaggerating? Watch that clip again. He let’s it go from his own 27 and the ball is on a line to the opponents 15 fucking yard line. The damn camera struggles to catch up to the speed of the pass. No other prospect can do this, not even Lawrence. That’s a 65+ yard toss on a rope. Jesus. Anyway, wipe off and let’s move on. I wanted to include this play because it shows a big weakness in his tape combined with his biggest strength. He doesn’t come off his first read but his arm bails him out. If the WR can beat his man, Lance can make the throw. I tell you what, I could watch Trey Lance drop dimes over DBs all day, I don’t give a fuck about yer DBs. He makes 50 yard throws look easy. Any semblance of consistency in his game and he’s the best QB in this class, bar none. Yes, this guy is open. But the ease of which he makes this throw is why I’m excited for him. This is routine. Easy. Another easy toss? Sure, why not? It’s so smooth. He lets it go deep and you are almost certain the WR will be able to make a play. Ladies and gents, we have reached the conclusion of our dive into Trey Lance. For our final play, let’s watch him throw the ball from his own 25 to the opponents 23 for a touchdown.
So that’s all folks. I will be absolutely annoying the next three months pushing Lance down your throats. I will apologize now but never again. This man has it all. He is in the mold of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Just pure tools and raw talent. Lofty comparisons, sure. But ones I feel confident making. Decry his competition. Point out his faults as if they can’t be fixed and other prospects have zero red flags. I don’t care. I know what I’ve seen with my own two eyes. If Lance had the opportunity in 2020 to build off his 2019 season, we wouldn’t even be discussing who to take at 2nd overall. Not a fan of the tape, why not look at the box score stats and hype about his 65% completion percentage, 30 Pass TDs (9.4 TD%), 1 INT (0.3 INT%), 6 total fumbles (2 lost, remarkable given his 192 rush attempts), 8.1 Rush YPA, and 18 rushing TDs. Not mind blowing but very good numbers considering he only had 318 attempts through the air and 192 on the ground. We have 510 plays from Trey Lance and a majority of them are excellent.
Be with me, be against me. Just don’t be stupid. Become a member of the Round Table and join Trey Lancelot and the_fuzzy_stoner.
submitted by the_fuzzy_stoner to nyjets [link] [comments]

Ultimate Casino Cashback Guide - Earn over £500 - UK ONLY

This guide aims to outline all of the best gambling cashback offers available over a range of sites, following this guide you should be able to make over £500 in cashback
Note - Cashback often takes a while to payout, bear this in mind when completing offers as you may have to wait to cashout your earnings
When completing these offers don't chase any loses as the cashback will give you a profit with nerly every offer
A short review of each site and some referral links
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Quidco don't offer a sign up bonus, find my ref link at the top of the post if you want to help me out!
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Thanks for reading, hope this of use to some people, happy earning!
submitted by Leth96 to beermoneyglobal [link] [comments]

Robinhood Banning GameStop demuestra que el mercado libre es una mentira

Robinhood es una aplicación de negociación de acciones que existe para "democratizar las finanzas", pero también, en ocasiones, le prohibirá comprar acciones porque expertos democráticamente irresponsables las han declarado sobrevaloradas.
Este fue el mensaje desconcertante que Robinhood envió a sus lectores el jueves por la mañana, cuando la locura por las acciones más desconcertante en la memoria moderna empujó el precio de una acción de GameStop por encima de $ 440.
Al momento de escribir este artículo, el rally de GameStop parece estar desvaneciéndose . Pero las preguntas que el fenómeno ha planteado - sobre la ética de aplicaciones-stock de comercio gamified, las desigualdades entre los inversores grandes y pequeños, cómo se determinan en realidad precios de las acciones, y lo que el mercado de valores es para - parecen crecer más numerosos e irritantes por la hora.
Afortunadamente, Chris Arnade puede tener algunas respuestas. El ex comerciante de bonos pasó dos décadas en Wall Street antes de desilusionarse con la cultura de cinismo y codicia de su profesión. En los últimos años, ha invertido la mayor parte de su tiempo en fotografía y escritura, por lo general sobre la clase social y la pobreza en los EE. UU. Pero ha protegido estas actividades productivas con no poca cantidad de ocio al acecho en Reddit. Lo que hace que su cerebro sea más apto para picar.
Intelligencer habló con Arnade el jueves sobre cómo la prohibición de GameStop por parte de Robinhood destaca la fraudulencia del "mercado libre", por qué los toros de GameStop de Reddit serían aclamados como genios en Wall Street (si solo tuvieran las credenciales adecuadas), y qué "el goteo la corrupción de los ricos ”le está haciendo a la cultura estadounidense, entre otras cosas.
Usted escribió en Twitter el miércoles “La horda Reddit través de la acción colectiva está haciendo a los fondos de cobertura lo hacen los fondos de cobertura a los inversores normales todo el tiempo.” ¿Qué quieres decir con eso?
Los fondos de cobertura pueden operar de diferentes formas. Pero uno clásico es tomar una posición y luego "hablar bien". Entonces, vas a Davos, vas a cenar a conferencias de inversión y usas todo el conocimiento que obtienes de estas conversaciones con funcionarios gubernamentales y otros inversionistas para realizar un intercambio. Y ejecuta esa operación de una manera que le permite aprovechar al máximo su inversión mediante la explotación de productos financieros complejos y lo que llamamos "tecnicismos" en el mercado: la forma en que otras personas están posicionadas, las posiciones que tienen las personas. Luego ingresa a CNBC, envía boletines matutinos, envía mensajes directos a través de Bloomberg a sus amigos y vende a todos en su comercio.
Ese es un comportamiento aplaudido en Wall Street. Estás burlando a la sala y le estás diciendo a la gente que estás burlando a la sala. En muchos sentidos, eso es lo que sucedió en Reddit durante los últimos seis meses. Pero no lo hizo una sola empresa; lo hicieron 2,3 millones de autodenominados degenerados.
Y realmente hicieron ambas cosas: ¡tomaron una posición y hablaron su libro! De hecho, alguien hizo una presentación bastante buena sobre por qué se infravaloraba GameStop, una presentación que habría tenido bastante éxito en los círculos de los fondos de cobertura hace un tiempo. Y luego construyeron sobre eso y todos se apilaron. Lo hicieron de una manera muy inteligente para aprovechar el posicionamiento de Wall Street.
¿Es posible resumir brevemente lo que hizo que su oficio fuera inteligente (de una manera que un lector lego entendería)?
Lo hicieron a través de "opciones de compra". Que es cuando compra el derecho a comprar una acción a un precio fijo dentro de un período de tiempo específico. Digamos que GameStop cotizaba a 20 dólares la acción. Los Redditors comprarían una opción de compra que les da derecho a comprar una acción de GameStop por $ 50 en algún momento en el futuro cercano. Y puede comprarlo muy barato porque nadie cree que el precio de una acción de GameStop supere los 50 dólares. Los agentes de bolsa venderán las opciones de compra a un precio bajo porque creen que es un evento de baja probabilidad. Pero los Redditors saben que no es un evento de baja probabilidad porque van a hacer subir las acciones.
Ahora, los corredores de bolsa no quieren correr riesgos, al contrario de lo que mucha gente parece pensar. No quieren apostar a que las acciones de GameStop no superen los 50 dólares. Entonces, cuando venden las opciones de compra, cubren su riesgo. Y lo hacen comprando sus propias acciones de GameStop, por lo que obtienen algún beneficio si las acciones de alguna manera superan los $ 50. Pero parece un pequeño riesgo. Entonces, si vendieron una opción de compra por 100 acciones, solo comprarán cinco o diez.
Entonces los Redditors comienzan a subir el precio. De repente, los corredores de bolsa tienen que comprar más acciones de GameStop para cubrir su riesgo. Pero cuando hacen eso, el precio de las acciones sube aún más. Se convierte en lo que se llama una "compresión gamma". Y los Redditors también saben, como escribiste en tu artículo , que muchos jugadores importantes estaban acortando GameStop. Entonces sabían que podían hacer un pequeño apretón , lo que desencadenó compras adicionales en todo el espectro por parte de los fondos de cobertura que estaban cortos y luego de los banqueros que se quedaron atrapados en un apretón gamma y tuvieron que proteger sus coberturas. Así que se dirige a la luna.
Todo eso se considera un juego limpio en Wall Street. Esa inteligencia se ve recompensada. Es por eso que a la gente de los fondos de cobertura se les paga mucho.
¿Crees que los inversores de Reddit sabían lo que estaban haciendo?
Eso no me queda claro. Creo que acaban de darse cuenta de que podrían sacar mucho provecho de su inversión comprando opciones de compra. Y luego creo que algunos notaron: "Oye, a medida que subimos el precio, esto hará que tengan que comprar más y luego se convertirá en una profecía autocumplida". Sin embargo, sucedió, lo que la multitud de Reddit hizo colectivamente fue un intercambio inteligente. Es el tipo de cosa que le haría ganar la admiración de Wall Street.
Para jugar al defensor del diablo (es decir, de los fondos de cobertura): cuando los fondos de cobertura ejecutan ingeniosas hazañas de manipulación del mercado, los perdedores son generalmente otras personas ricas. Por el contrario, cuando los carismáticos carteles de Reddit (que entraron en el comercio de GameStop temprano) intentan la misma maniobra, lo hacen alentando a un grupo de inversores aficionados no adinerados a que se amontonen en un comercio que muchos probablemente no entienden. De modo que los perdedores están potencialmente menos protegidos contra las luchas financieras. Ese al menos parece ser el tipo de distinción que los WallStreetBets de CNBC quieren hacer. ¿Hay algo en ese argumento paternalista?
Creo que eso llega al meollo de la cuestión: o crees en el libre mercado o no. Para ser claro, no lo hago. No estoy sugiriendo que lo que hacen los fondos de cobertura sea legítimo y, por lo tanto, lo que hace Reddit sea legítimo. Estoy diciendo que tienes que aplicar tus estándares por igual. Personalmente, no estoy particularmente feliz de que Reddit esté copiando los fondos de cobertura. Ojalá los fondos de cobertura dejaran de hacer lo que están haciendo. Pero si es legal para los fondos de cobertura, puede comprender por qué las personas en Reddit se indignarían cuando las personas actuaran como si no fuera legal para ellos hacer lo mismo.
La ideología de Wall Street es el libertarismo. Es que las personas tienen albedrío y se les debe permitir ejercerlo. Es una cosmovisión no paternalista. Es "Todo el mundo sale por sí mismo, y la razón por la que ganamos dinero no es porque seamos más egoístas, sino porque somos más inteligentes". Si esa es tu actitud, está bien. Esa no es mi actitud. Creo que el espíritu de Wall Street - "Beneficios a toda costa, todo es un mercado, el mundo es un casino, solo quiero ganar dinero para poder comprar mis pepitas" - es realmente negativo. No me gusta que la actitud corrupta de los ricos se haya filtrado. Pero si los ricos van a poder jugar a este juego, ¿por qué te sorprende que los menos ricos empiecen a jugar?
Sospecho que sé tu respuesta, pero: ¿Estuvo mal que Robinhood prohibiera a sus usuarios comprar acciones de GameStop (aparentemente para evitar que su base de usuarios aficionados perdiera mucho dinero comprando cerca del pico de una burbuja)?
Si. Yo pienso que fue. Mira, no creo que todo esto vaya a terminar bien. Creo que cuando se aclare el polvo, probablemente verá que no hubo una transferencia neta de riqueza de Wall Street a los inversores minoristas, sino una transferencia de riqueza de Wall Street a Wall Street, de algunas empresas a otras empresas. Pero tienes dos opciones aquí en mi mente. El primero, que preferiría, es regular todo Wall Street, de modo que el engaño intelectual que está legitimado por la clase acreditada se reduzca un poco y los Redditors también se regulen. O puede desregular y dejar que la multitud de Reddit haga lo que está haciendo: admitir que es un jugador nuevo y tan legítimo como usted. Es la hipocresía lo que frustra.
¿Cuál es el costo de la hipocresía paternalista en su opinión? ¿Que sirve para deslegitimar el sistema y alimenta la reacción populista? ¿O se trata solo del principio?
En última instancia, es contraproducente porque todo lo que haga para tratar de detener a estas personas, solo los hará más cínicos y más convencidos de que el sistema está manipulado y, en consecuencia, más propensos a hacer cosas que son simplemente divertidas . Cosas que las élites consideran disruptivas. Cuando el sistema es tan descaradamente injusto, la gente se va a enojar cada vez más. Me enoja más y lo entendí bastante bien. No debería estar sentado aquí enojándome por esto, pero me están haciendo querer apoyar más a la multitud de Reddit. Deja de hacer esto. Sea justo, hombre.
Creo que lo que la "clase acreditada", en su frase, encuentra escandaloso sobre el comercio de los Redditors no es solo que las personas que lo hacen son extraños groseros, sino también que el "pequeño apretón" específico que están ejecutando es casi satírico: se burla de la noción de que el precio de las acciones de una empresa está determinado por sus "fundamentos", por estimaciones racionales de su potencial de ganancias basadas en sus ingresos netos y la salud de su industria. Las acciones de GameStop no se dispararon porque la venta minorista de videojuegos de ladrillo y mortero se convirtió en una mejor propuesta comercial. Se dispararon porque GameStop se convirtió en un "meme". Y una vez que demuestre que esto puede suceder, surge la posibilidad de que las meras narrativas y el pensamiento grupal estén impulsando las valoraciones en el mercado de valores, aunque de manera menos atroz.¿Crees que WallStreetBets está socavando la racionalidad de los mercados financieros, o haciendo más visible su irracionalidad, de la misma manera que una caricatura ilumina los defectos de un rostro humano?
Creo que lo dijiste perfectamente. Es una caricatura. Uno de los secretos sucios de invertir en Wall Street es que solo tienes que conseguir que la gente compre tu historia. La mayoría de los precios están en gran parte libres de "valor", en mi opinión. Valor es una palabra difícil de definir de todos modos. Pero la clase acreditada, los profesionales, las personas legítimas, han definido la forma legítima de valorar GameStop, o la forma legítima de valorar a Nike. Y vamos a jugar el juego según esas reglas. Y vamos a CNBC, y vamos a Davos, y vamos a conferencias de inversores y vamos a conferencias del FMI para construir esa historia, para construir esa narrativa de valoración.
Y nosotros, los inversores, salimos todos a cenar, y todos llegamos a la conclusión de que así se debe valorar. Y todos saltamos. Es muy parecido a una cosa de Reddit. Todos acordamos hacer esto. Eso es lo que creo que falta en muchas historias. Mucha gente en Wall Street tiene las mismas operaciones. Todos llegan a la misma conclusión. Hay dinero moviéndose mientras la gente pelea por esto y aquello, pero en general, por lo que hice, con el macro comercio, casi todos tienen las mismas posiciones. Entonces, cuando la administración de capital a largo plazo explotó en 1998, todos perdieron porque todos tenían la misma posición. Lo mismo en el 2007 con la crisis financiera. Todo el mundo explotó, porque todos tenían los mismos intercambios; porque todos habían llegado a la misma conclusión; porque básicamente todos habían hecho el equivalente a lo que hicieron los Redditors.
Pero dónde somos diferentes de los Redditors: creemos que realmente hay algo subyacente llamado valor y que podemos saberlo. Una de las cosas asombrosas de este rally de GameStop es que expusieron nuestra noción de valor como un fraude. Así que mucha gente miró a GameStop cuando costaba $ 20 y dijo: “No hay absolutamente ninguna manera de que vaya a $ 40. Pero realmente, realmente no hay manera de que vaya a $ 120. La idea de que esté a 120 dólares es simplemente absurda. Según nuestro modelo de valoración, eso haría que GameStop fuera tan valioso como Ford o GM. No hay forma de que las acciones puedan hacer eso ".
Y los Redditors dijeron: “¿A quién le importa? No me importan tus ecuaciones. No me importan sus modelos de valoración. Voy a hacer que el precio suba porque lo único que tengo para mí es un número en la pantalla ". Así que simplemente quitaron toda la pretensión de Wall Street y lo usaron para exponerlo y arruinarlo. Creo que eso va a tener consecuencias a largo plazo. Cuando todo esto se calme, la gente tendrá que ser mucho más cautelosa acerca de dónde pueden ir las cosas, mucho más cautelosa al decir "Esto no puede ir a X porque eso no se ajusta a mi modelo". Porque una vez que simplemente no te importa el valor, o una vez que dejas de fingir que te preocupas por el valor, una vez que lo ves por el fraude que es, el precio puede ir a donde quiera.
Usted fue comerciante en Wall Street durante 20 años antes de salir de la industria, después de haber estado tan desilusionado con su vocación que ahora se identifica como socialista. ¿Esa desilusión reflejó cambios en la cultura o las prácticas de la industria financiera, o simplemente su propio agotamiento con la forma en que siempre fueron las cosas?
Fue un poco de ambos. Definitivamente hubo cambios en la cultura. Creo que a la gente le cuesta creer que en los años 80, Wall Street realmente tenía un sentido de responsabilidad fiduciaria hacia sus clientes. Pero lo hizo por el localismo. Había más conexión entre las empresas, los productos financieros que ofrecían y la comunidad inmediata a la que servían.
Ahora, hay una seguridad respaldada por activos. Puede negociar un valor respaldado por activos y, literalmente, no saber a quién se otorgaron esos préstamos. No sabes quién es la persona afectada. Hay 30 capas entre tú y el resultado final. Entonces simplemente se convierte en un juego. Realmente es solo este juego. Estás cambiando números en la pantalla.
Creo que eso es lo que me fascina de todo esto. La multitud de Reddit abrazó el cinismo de Wall Street, que trata todo como un juego, y lo tomaron y dijeron: “Está bien, esto es un juego. Y encontré un error en el juego ". Les están diciendo a todos sus amigos que hay un juego con un jefe débil. Y van a atacar a ese jefe. Porque son jugadores. Y los jugadores juegan.
submitted by Invirtiendo to u/Invirtiendo [link] [comments]

Guide to Offers for This Weekend, Premier League and Ascot

Football is back on in the UK. There's been a drought in the betting industry for the past 3 months and now that sporting fixtures are coming back, You can quite literally make £100s of pounds.
The reason for this is that The bookmakers are now all competing with eachother to get the most customers, which means they will be giving a lot of free bets and offering a whole range of promotions. This is great if you are completely new to Match betting, because on top of the welcome offers, you will also get the additional offers every day. These offers are of course also available to existing customers.

The Offers:
Premier League:
Coral - Get a £50 free bet if your team is leading at half time but goes on to lose the match- Available on every premier League Match. ( I did this last night on Tottenham, got the £50 free bet because they were leading at half time but went on not to win the match)
Bet365 - Bet £50 Get £50 Inplay (Everton v Liverpool)
Betfair Sportsbook - Bet £20 Get £20, Availble until June 22nd
Coral- £10 Refund if your team loses
Paddy Power - £5 Free Bet (Sun June 21 19:00 (Everton v Liverpool). You just have to log in and claim this bet, It's in your account right now.
Paddy Power - Money Back As Cash If Bournemouth win (up to £10)
888sport - Bet £10, Get £5 Free Bet If Win
Paddypower - Bet £20 on sports Get 20 Free Spins
Coral - Bet £15 Get £5 (Inplay)
Skybet: Saturday Boosts

Ascot (Last day today):
William Hill - Money Back As Cash If 2nd (All races in Ascot)
Paddy Power: £5 Free Bet ( 13:50 Race Ascot). You just have to log in and claim this bet, It's in your account right now.
Skybet - Money Back As Cash if 2nd, 3rd or 4th (13:15 Ascot)
Genting - Money Back If Lose and Admiral Nelson Wins (13:50 Ascot)
Bwin- Money Back as a free bet if 2nd ( 12:40 Ascot)

I posted a guide on Matched betting on Tuesday which got a very good response, If anyone wants to learn how to Match bet quickly, You can take a look at it Here
Hope this is of help to some people, If you have any questions feel free to ask.
submitted by IvyRoney to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

I’m not allowed to buy here...

I work in a private preschool. I wear a green badge on a lanyard and since COVID I usually wear scrubs to work that I can throw off when I get home. (Homemade yay, sewing!)
Anyway today I had to swing by “Smallfart” on my way home to pick up some groceries but mostly to visit the pharmacy and get my MIL some insulin.
It’s summer...and hot. Today I had chosen not to wear a shirt under my scrubs because of the heat so I wasn’t able to change like usual. Still my crayon and rainbow patterned top and bright turquoise pants look nothing like “Smallfart”’s blue vest and khaki pants uniform, and I’m headed straight home after so I thought NBD.
I hit the pharm first because they close earlier than the rest of the store and there’s always a line. I’m up after one elderly gent and I’m just kinda people watching, going over my list in my mind.
Suddenly I feel a tug on my shirt. This is uncomfortable for two reasons. 1...social distancing is still a thing(right?!) and 2...did I mention it was hot? I’m sweaty as hell.
I turn and see this octogenarian Karen (an octogekarian?😂) poking her meaty finger at me. (At least she had a mask on)
“You’re in line?”
I look down at the floor, where there is an actual line painted. “Yes”.
She clicks somehow(like an insect). “That’s great. You know you employees should let us paying customers go first. We have more important places to be.”
M: “I don’t work here, ma’am.”
K: “don’t you ma’am me! Stupid teenager”(I’m pushing 40)
I’m not in that much of a hurry, so I try to kill her with kindness. M: “im sorry. I really don’t work here. But if you’re in a hurry you can go ahead of me.”
K:”you bet I can” she practically pushes me out of the way and I scoot back to the next dot that’s 6 ft away. The lady behind her(who is now behind me) gives me a “what can you do?” shrug.
So I wait and she goes up to the pharmacist and immediately starts badmouthing me to the woman, who obviously doesnt give a flying fig. She just glances up at me and apologizes to the woman for the wait. The karen gets her drugs and starts to leave but suddenly stops. I’m ready for another tirade, but it’s my turn so I kind of step around her. As I do she starts walking again and leaves. I do what I came to do (the pharmacist doesn’t even mention the incident so neither do I) and then go get my food and also leave.
I don’t know if she was pausing to maybe apologize to me, or if she had more to say, or just wanted another look and realized she had been wrong.
I guess dealing with toddlers all day has made me Karen-proof? She was pretty mild though.
submitted by Sharkqween to IDontWorkHereLady [link] [comments]

I’m not allowed to buy here...

I work in a private preschool. I wear a green badge on a lanyard and since COVID I usually wear scrubs to work that I can throw off when I get home. (Homemade yay, sewing!)
Anyway today I had to swing by “Smallfart” on my way home to pick up some groceries but mostly to visit the pharmacy and get my MIL some insulin.
It’s summer...and hot. Today I had chosen not to wear a shirt under my scrubs because of the heat so I wasn’t able to change like usual. Still my crayon and rainbow patterned top and bright turquoise pants look nothing like “Smallfart”’s blue vest and khaki pants uniform, and I’m headed straight home after so I thought NBD.
I hit the pharm first because they close earlier than the rest of the store and there’s always a line. I’m up after one elderly gent and I’m just kinda people watching, going over my list in my mind.
Suddenly I feel a tug on my shirt. This is uncomfortable for two reasons. 1...social distancing is still a thing(right?!) and 2...did I mention it was hot? I’m sweaty as hell.
I turn and see this octogenarian Karen (an octogekarian?) poking her meaty finger at me. (At least she had a mask on)
“You’re in line?”
I look down at the floor, where there is an actual line painted. “Yes”.
She clicks somehow(like an insect). “That’s great. You know you employees should let us paying customers go first. We have more important places to be.”
M: “I don’t work here, ma’am.”
K: “don’t you ma’am me! Stupid teenager”(I’m pushing 40)
I’m not in that much of a hurry, so I try to kill her with kindness. M: “im sorry. I really don’t work here. But if you’re in a hurry you can go ahead of me.”
K:”you bet I can” she practically pushes me out of the way and I scoot back to the next dot that’s 6 ft away. The lady behind her(who is now behind me) gives me a “what can you do?” shrug.
So I wait and she goes up to the pharmacist and immediately starts badmouthing me to the woman, who obviously doesnt give a flying fig. She just glances up at me and apologizes to the woman for the wait. The karen gets her drugs and starts to leave but suddenly stops.
I’m ready for another tirade, but it’s my turn so I kind of step around her. As I do she starts walking again and leaves. I do what I came to do (the pharmacist doesn’t even mention the incident so neither do I) and then go get my food and also leave.
I don’t know if she was pausing to maybe apologize to me, or if she had more to say, or just wanted another look and realized she had been wrong.
I guess dealing with toddlers all day has made me Karen-proof? She was pretty mild though.
submitted by linkdeez_ to u/linkdeez_ [link] [comments]

Fuck Wells Fucking Fargo

hey gents, i just wanted to apologize to all of you who went balls deep with me and bought the WFC 45 and 50 calls for January 2021. I was confident wells fargo couldn't go tits up, that it was too big to fail. IF you bought when i posted you'll be down about 60% right now.
i wish it was a steady climb up to the 40's or someshit but things are looking grim my friends i picked a bad lame horse and somehow convinced some of you to bet with me. and for that i apologize.
I will however in the typical retard fashion, go down with this ship. only 6 months left for wells fargo to somehow get over 40 dollars for me to start seeing any tendies. i wish i listened to the Bears on this one.
maybe 'ill double down if it dips again. idk WFC 40C JAN2021
thanks for the award, really. But it now means I must triple down
submitted by lolgreglol to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DFS 5/1 43P Insider Trading

DISCLAIMER: This is a very high risk trade. DO NOT ENTER IF YOU'RE NOT WILLING TO LOSE MONEY. We're talking about an option expiring tomorrow, literally the FDist of FDs
TL,DR; read the damn title you retard

Here it is ladies and gents, the holy grail of UOA, textbook insider trading
COMPANY
DFS, or Discover Financial Services, has no earnings and no foreseeable catalysts in the near future. We know that they're considered a predatory lender, and we know that many Americans are unable to pay off their debts.

OPTION ACTION
Today, the algo detected an institution methodically buying puts on DFS, specifically the 43P with expiration tomorrow. Big block trades ranging from 500-1500 split into three lots spread across three exchanges. These purchases happened throughout the day, much like BA and GILD two weeks ago, in an effort to conceal their purchases. A number of smaller sells also preceded, but the latest purchases were large buying to orders. Volume is over 9000 and OI was at 30 yesterday.
The stock didn't move enough today for this to be an algorithmic momentum trade, this was methodical and calculated.
One concern is large amount of sweep sells, all occurring at the same time with large deviations in size. The worst case scenario for us is if this is an algo bait and switch for people following the UOA strategy. As of right now though, I'm cautiously optimistic that this trade will work out.

As of right now I'm still monitoring the order flow to see if the institution is going to bait and switch us and sell at the last moment. I will update at 12:55 PST on whether or not this has happened or not.

HBI EXPLANATIOIN
Some of you may be suspect after my admittedly premature HBI DD. I apologize for any losses incurred on that trade. However, I have seen some significant differences between this and HBI.
First of all, HBI was a huge block bet, very obvious to see. DFS is a little more sneaky, all these blocks are disguised and mixed with smaller sell orders. They're traded on different exchanges, at different times, much like BA and GILD. This institution doesn't want people to know that it's trading DFS. That's what makes this trade so compelling.

UPDATE: 12:39: Institution has just doubled down with 800 more puts
12:43: Instution bought 1800 more

12:55: institutions have now well over 2 million in exposure on this, no selling

My positions are 30 41p, 35 42p, and 20 43p. If we lose, we lose together. Godspeed gentlemen

UPDATE: 1:04, 750k shares sold AH

https://imgur.com/a/33JFKFT here's my positions. more than 2k in

UPDATE 3:40: Seems like many institutions are dumping shares. Price action at 41.5. Hoping it stays overnight

UPDATE: 6:37: I'm outtie boys, enjoy your tendies
submitted by qwertyrayz to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Free £142.99+ with TopCashback/Quidco no loss gambling offers

Free £142.99+ with TopCashback/Quidco no loss gambling offers

Both TopCashback and Quidco offer cashback for signing up gambling websites, then depositing and wagering a minimum amount. All the ones listed below are 'no loss' in that the amount of cashback offered is at least the same amount as the minimum deposit and wager.
If you sign up with my referral links and complete all the offers in the table below then you can get £142.99 back in cashback, plus whatever winnings you make on any of the sites.
Blackjack is quite popular for these offers as there are ways of playing to minimise your losses, but I normally go for roulette, pick a number and go for that every time until my initial deposit is spent. Worked well for me and I've walked away with extra money from all places roulette is elegible for the offer.
I don't want to say this is guaranteed money as cashback never is, but I've done all these offers and have only ever had to dispute one as it didn't track, and is currently being resolved.

Steps

  1. Sign up to TopCashback with my referral link / non ref
  2. Sign up to Quidco with my referral link (£12.50 bonus) / non ref (no bonus)
  3. Complete the offers in the table below.

Offers

# Retailer Deposit/Wager Bonus Profit
1 Lottoland £10.01 £20 £9.99
2 Betfair Poker £10 £50 £40
3 Coral Casino £10 £31.50 £21.50
4 Paddy Power Games £10 £25 £15
5 Mecca Bingo £10 £12.11 £2.11
6 BingoPort - £3.15 £3.15
7 Football Index £20 £23.10 £3.10
8 Ladbrokes Casino £10 £31.50 £21.50
9 Genting Casino £25 £26.25 £1.25
10 Pokerstars Poker £25 £26.25 £1.25
11 Lotto Social - £0.63 £0.63
12 William Hill Casino £25 £26.25 £1.25
13 LottoGo £1 £3.84 £2.84
14 Lottomart £2 £8.92 £6.92
15 Tombola £10 £10 -

Notes

  1. Read the terms of each offer before depositing and wagering, as for example no sports bets are accepted for the Genting Casino offer, you must deposit the minimum amount in one go for the William Hill offer, etc.
  2. Cashback offers don't pay out immediately, but there is an average payment speed listed in the RetaileTracking Stats section on each page.
  3. Make sure you make any ad/tracking blockers disabled whilst clicking through and completing the offers, as the retailers must track new registrations and purchases in order to pay cashback. Having these enabled in the most common reason for cashback not tracking.
  4. If you sign up with my TopCashback referral link, I'll get £7.50 when you get £10 in payable cashback.
  5. If you sign up with my Quidco referral link, I'll also get £12.50 when you get £5 in confirmed cashback.
Let me know if you have any questions, as I've done all of these offers already and happy to help :)
submitted by pKYmlCo70Iyn9D0q38L1 to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Geek PSA: Why Labyrinth of Touhou is a phenomenal landmark of game design and why right now is the best time to get into it.

Preface
If you've ever played an RPG in your life, you've certainly noticed that they tend to carry very similar flaws. Whether it be cheap boss fights with too much HP, overly slow pacing and/or combat, the fact that you need a painstakingly detailed walkthrough just to be able to figure out where to go, unnecessary padding in the story department, excessive grinding, you name it. And if I had a nickel for every time I heard someone complain about encounter rates being obnoxiously high in an RPG, I could purchase enough money to swim in a pool of Embodiment of Scarlet Devil CD-ROMS.
Point is, as awesome as RPGs absolutely are, many of their worst design aspects are repeated time and time again. A self-fulfilling prophecy of repeating history; the same design choices that didn't work decades ago are still bothering players to this day.
But what if there existed a game that had none of these flaws? A game that had a monolithic amount of content, customization, and player choice. A game with the perfect encounter rate system, incredibly quick and snappy combat, phenomenal artwork, a stellar soundtrack that captures many different themes, is easy to understand yet difficult to master, and guess what? It just so happens to star Touhou characters...
It was a match made in Heaven. And guess what, Tom? It doesn't light on fire either.
Basic Overview
Labyrinth of Touhou is the original creation of a talented Nise-Eikoku-Shinshidan Studio. The primary focus of the games are the dungeon exploration; you control a chibi Reimu as you search for treasure, fight enemies, and make your way through many floors, each with their own distinct level themes, enemies, and music. You control up to four characters in battle, but you can actually have up to 12 party members total at any given time and switch between them in-battle if you'd like.
Compounding this is the complex and engaging battle system, which revolves entirely around the Action Time Bar, or ATB for short. The ATB is what dictates who moves first; it goes down to a minimum of zero and maximum of 10,000 - barring a few exceptions. All enemy and ally ATB bars will rise until one reaches 10,000, which will allow that charactemonster to take their turn. The ATB system is entirely turn-based, yet it manages to be far more complex than a simple Speed stat dictating who moves first. And though the Speed stat is fundamental for increasing the rate at which your ATB rises, there are many factors at play which never make it that simple.
Take some of the status effects, for instance; of course you have your debuffs, which Speed can be affected by. There's Paralysis, which completely stops one's ATB from going up and thus halts the character from being able to take their turn. Terror can lower all stats by 8% and remove MP each turn. There's also Shock, which instantly slashes one's ATB in half upon activation. These status effects alone greatly change how you go about every single fight, and changes who moves first into a game of priority, threat management, removal of ailments, and more.
Additionally, all actions (Attack, Spell Card, Form Change, Concentrate) have a specific delay to them that sets back the ATB a certain amount. This varies wildly depending on what moves you are using, most notably with the Spell Cards, of which there are an innumerable amount of.
For the sake of expedition I'll switch tangents for now, but if you're interested to learn more about the game's in-depth battle mechanics, Touhou Wiki is the godsend for you.
That's cool and all, but what about the common RPG trappings?
If my melodramatic intro wasn't enough of an indicator regarding how well designed LoT is, then allow me to dive into some of the best aspects of the game's design. And in few areas does the incredible design shine brighter than with how this game handles encounter rates.
In a grand majority of flawed RPGs, the encounter rate system almost always ends up being the Achilles' heel of the game's design. They tend to be obnoxiously high and constantly interrupt from the flow of the game, bringing the pacing to a screeching halt - almost as if Sakuya stopped time on random occasions just to fuck with your Mind - basically this game's Special Defense stat for any Pokemon fans out there.
However, LoT handles this long-abused system in such a way that skyrockets the overall flow of the game, allows for the player to explore much more, and still get plenty of random encounters. Ladies and gents, it's...IT'S...actually a nameless system, but work with me here.
Your encounter rate starts at 0%. Every time you take a step, however, the encounter rate for the next step goes up very slightly, usually only about 0.5-1.1% more if I had to guesstimate. You'll actually end up fighting enemies around once the encounter rate meter reaches around 40-60%, which completely eliminates one of RPGs most obnoxious creations known to man - abusively high encounter rates.
"But LemonadeFanatic!" I can hear you say, "What if I'm trying to fight enemy mobs quickly to level up faster and get more cash?" And I'm glad you asked that, ReimuHakureiIsMyWaifu42.
One of this game's defining innovations to the encounter rate formula is a fix so simple yet effective, I'm baffled it took humanity this long to figure it out. There's a specific button you press (M on keyboards, varies for controller users) that instantly sets the encounter rate to 200%, making the next step you take a guaranteed enemy encounter.
I cannot possibly emphasize enough how ingenious of a system this is. By letting the player control the encounter rate, you can freely move and explore while getting some encounters along the way, or activate them instantly any time you want.
This freedom of choice and - let's be real - absolute fucking brilliance carries over to most of the game's other areas of design as well. The entire game is incredibly snappy, for one, and especially so for an RPG. Battle animations are flashy and lightning-fast, menu navigation is incredibly quick, dialogue is highly enjoyable and fits the characters well but can be easily skipped if one desires, the list goes on. Additionally, an overwhelming majority of the game can be conquered without any sort of grinding, and even if you choose to do so, grinding goes by so quickly thanks to the game's speed that it doesn't even feel like grinding.
Fair enough, but what's an RPG without good boss fights? I bet those are cheap beyond all recognition, yeah?
Actually, not at all. And to illustrate my point, we're going to take one of my favorite fights in the game as an example.
MINOR SPOILERS FOR LABYRINTH OF TOUHOU 2 - SCROLL DOWN IF YOU WOULD LIKE TO AVOID.
Around the mid-game portion of LoT2, you are pit up against none other than Tenshi Hinanawi. And though this fight can be quickly dismissed as a cheap boss with a cheap trick, the more you dissect it the more interesting it becomes.
Her main gimmick is the Sword of Hisou - this fucking thing will activate whenever one of your party members reaches the maximum of 100% buffs on any of your stats, and will do enough damage to likely one-shot any party member you have. The theme of the boss is to teach players not to overrely on stat buffs to succeed, and I think it was geniously implemented.
This is a very bulky boss fight as well. At the start of the fight, she'll buff her Defense and Mind to 100%, making dealing damage to her extremely difficult. However, one could approach this fight in many different ways and still succeed; certain attacks in the game have very high damage values and don't consider the opponent's defensive capabilities that much. Status effects are as reliable as ever, with reliable chip damage in poison, valuable slow-down ailments in Shock/Paralysis/Heavy, and debuffs can be the name of the game here.
MINOR SPOILERS END
Point is, unlike Final Fantasy 3, you don't have to run any specific characters or party combinations to win. And while you're never forced to use a very specific strategy in order to prevail, the game will test how much you rely on your strategies and attempt to counter them at every opportunity.
Every single boss in the game is designed like this. And it's just as engaging as it sounds - adjusting your strategies, changing your equipment appropriately, and frantically scrambling to get back up on your feet when the boss does something that you didn't expect. It is an unbelievable amount of fun and one of the game's strongest points. Even the Death ailment which literally causes instant death can be strategized and worked around to the point where it's not as bad as one may think.
Sounds good! But why right now?
This game has been exploding in exciting, relevant news as recently as the past few months. A Steam release has been long confirmed to be in the works, the second game (best one available atm) has been released to the Nintendo Switch and PS4 featuring a variety of QoL enhancements and improvements (PC version also got a patch for them), and as if all that wasn't enough, the developers have confirmed a third game to be in the works! If you're ever going to get into Labyrinth of Touhou, now is the perfect opportunity to pick it up and see if you like it.
Furthermore, Labyrinth of Touhou isn't just a celebration of Touhou, but gaming in general. There is a monolithic plethora of references to other works, games, doujin creations, and obscure media for you to sink your teeth into and enjoy. I can almost guarantee that you'll get at least one of them, because I know I did...
Alright, alright, you got me! So...where do I begin?
First thing's first, start with the second game. Specifically, its Plus Disk enhancement, which adds more content and QoL changes to the original game. LoT2 will give you an even better experience as it is more modern and refined than LoT1.
LoT2 on DLsite, though you will need to patch the game with the latest update and the English Translation if you want the best experience.
Plus Disk enhancement for LoT2 - this is an add-on, so you have to buy the base game as well for this to work.
If you're interested in the first game, LoT1 has a Special Disk which is the definitive version of the game. Unlike LoT2 Plus Disk, this is the entire package and doesn't need the base game or Plus Disk to work properly.
Additionally, though you could theoretically buy the game on Switch or PS4 right now, not being able to read or understand anything in Japanese might deter newer players, so this really isn't recommend unless you're a veteran of the game already. Let's all hope for an eventual English localization, haha.
I wouldn't recommend piracy, but if it is truly your only avenue at the moment, then you know where to look already.
Important Notes for Installation
Happy gaming everybody! Don't just take my word for it, take this guy's word too. Labyrinth of Touhou is far too good for how obscure it is, and I think you should give a shot as well.
~Sincerely, some wacko from the West Coast.
submitted by LemonadeFanatic604 to touhou [link] [comments]

Removed comments/submissions for /u/laramite

Hi laramite, you're not shadowbanned, but 75 of your most recent 134 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).

Comments:

gevnbi3 in ravens on 06 Dec 20 (1pts):
Even if we make the playoffs I am not sure we'd make it far. We are not figuring out the Chiefs conundrum this year. If we finish 11-5 or 10-6 to finish out of playoffs, you could still say it was a...
gevm4by in ravens on 06 Dec 20 (1pts):
Indy, Cleveland, Las Vegas, Miami won. Patriots looking strong so far in the game. I bet Steelers sit most of their starters against the Browns in the last week. I don't think we're going to catch...
gejqnld in ravens on 04 Dec 20 (1pts):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penn_State_Nittany_Lions_football_statistical_leaders - Trace is #1 in...
gehrijj in ravens on 03 Dec 20 (1pts):
A lot of heart. The Defense went way above and beyond. Let's get into the dance and anything can happen. They can beat any team in the league with all the Covid starters in play. Even the Chiefs.
geflmbj in ravens on 03 Dec 20 (1pts):
It was a bit uninspiring wasn't it?
gefljca in ravens on 03 Dec 20 (1pts):
If they get into the dance, the Ravens are a battle-tested scary team.
gefleo6 in ravens on 03 Dec 20 (1pts):
A Harbaugh coached team has too much pride to get blown out by the Steelers. I think this will be the turning point of the season. The B team held strong. That kind of thing really gets the regular...
gefl5c2 in ravens on 03 Dec 20 (1pts):
Too small sample size of plays to make that judgement.
gedan5h in ravens on 02 Dec 20 (1pts):
Not only will be a loss, it will be an big loss comparable to the Denver game from Sunday. Sucks to have it that way -- but we're all ready for it and let's just get on with it.
ge5ns9y in ravens on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
Forfeit == players on both teams don't get paid for that game & NFL loses money. I don't want to speak for the Steelers players and they may feel differently, but my guess is they like money. So......
ge3lrgt in ravens on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
Raiders lost big. They still have 2 games against decent teams. We're still in the playoff hunt baby...with like 10 people.
ge26n20 in ravens on 29 Nov 20 (1pts):
I am thinking Ravens are losing draft picks. Along with Broncos. Saints got docked 7th rounder for celebrating maskless. I wouldn't be surprised if we lose MULTIPLE draft picks. The nightmare season...
ge1fewu in ravens on 29 Nov 20 (1pts):
Let's just take the beating like grown couch potato fans we all are and move on to the Cowboys game. I am predicting 40+ point differential and I am ok with it. It is what it is. At least an AFC...
ge1e8lw in ravens on 29 Nov 20 (1pts):
The way I see it, Steelers will go up 4 TDs in the first half and then their main starters will all sit. The backups will play the Ravens from there onwards. Then they'll let off the gas and kind of...
gdtrz4x in ravens on 28 Nov 20 (1pts):
If RG3 pulls the win off with half the roster down against a fully stacked Steelers team, he should start remainder of season. RG3 is the best passing QB on the team.
gdssilu in ravens on 27 Nov 20 (1pts):
Lamar can play Tuesday if he tested positive by Wednesday (or is it Thursday?), is asymptomatic, and he he tests negative at least 24 hours apart in the 5 days to Tuesday. This scenario would...
gdq94c6 in ravens on 27 Nov 20 (1pts):
RG3 is a capable QB who has played as a starter against the Steelers as a Brown and a Raven. Y'all are underestimating him.
gdpzzuk in ravens on 27 Nov 20 (1pts):
2020 has been a trip. Time for 2021.
gdpzh17 in ravens on 27 Nov 20 (1pts):
Whether a forfeit or we play RG3, we lose against the Steelers. Cowboys are putrid right now. We should still be able to win that game with RG3. We come out 1-1 w/o Lamar and still go 11-5. After...
gdl40ou in ravens on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
"to talk about what exactly? how they keep F**in us. we had a week 4 bye cause of this, now the only time we look forward to some rest was after one of the biggest PRIMETIME games we no longer...
gdl2na6 in ravens on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
I'd be ok with no more prime time games for Ravens. Really need to fly under the radar.
gdinvou in ravens on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
They will be going into Thursday's game with NO live practice this week. It could be an ugly loss.
gdfscla in ravens on 24 Nov 20 (1pts):
Dez Bryant is back on the practice squad. Now can be signed by any team now that he has returned to the practice squad. The Ravens make the oddest decisions when it comes to WRs. Show some signs of...
gde2szz in ravens on 24 Nov 20 (1pts):
Brandon Williams is in quarantine as well. At least we have the best kicker in the league healthy. That should count for something.
gdc3z7e in ravens on 23 Nov 20 (1pts):
Most of the plays I saw with Dez was him getting the ball behind line of scrimmage and he plows through one or two defenders to get the extra 5 yards. I think Dez will save our season and we will go...
gd8zpd4 in ravens on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):
Dobbins is so money today.
gd8yxe3 in ravens on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):
Just run Dobbins all downs. Screw it.
gd50zuq in ravens on 22 Nov 20 (1pts):
Best part of this new make shift offense: no game tape!
gd054lj in ravens on 21 Nov 20 (1pts):
0-6 when we're behind by at least 10 points in Lamar's tenure with and without a good offensive line and all 3 TEs. He still has a ton of growing to do as QB. BTW - the Ravens have to inform Lamar...
gcwfdy4 in ravens on 20 Nov 20 (1pts):
No one curious what the new identity could be? Can't wait to see it live this weekend!
gcpxd3e in ravens on 18 Nov 20 (1pts):
Proche, Duvernay, Brown, Snead, Andrews. Empty backfield, 5 WR set (4 WR + 1 TE) spread out the line of scrimmage. 3 WRs on far left side, one slot on right (Brown) and one WR on far right...
gcm6y4c in ravens on 17 Nov 20 (1pts):
Traitor.
gchr7me in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
  1. Rain
  2. Lack of practice
  3. They had an axe to grind after last year's loss
  4. Missing some key players to injuries
  5. Any given Sunday
  6. We, at least as fans, got too cocky going into this...
gcgif6x in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
cuz of 4th and 3 at Steelers game. Twice.
gcgi5ov in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Fuck this. I am out. One bad nightmare of a game.
gcghy26 in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Lamar Jackson is 0-5 as starting QB when trailing by 10+ points at any point in the game . This is how I know we're going to lose.
gcghpy7 in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
defense has no answers. we're done.
gcggqcs in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Time to push the panic button for this game gents.
gcggn7v in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
I told you guys - we can't expect a 2nd half miracle. They're gonna keep running down out throats. bad news.
gcggghj in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Patriots gonna run that ball down our throats with Williams gone. Hope that ankle heals fast for Williams.
gcgg84z in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Then we could fall behind the Browns in standings.
gcgfzde in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Browns are 6-3. We'll have the same record as the Browns if we lose this game....
gcgftkt in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Cuz his boy has been bitching on twitter that he wants the ball.
gcgfool in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Hey look - I know ya'll are like "hey we came back fine in the 2nd half." Just have a bad feeling about this one as our defense is getting gashed.
gcgfgi9 in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Why can't both sides of the ball play good for one game?
gcgf7t6 in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
Easily go to 10 in second half. Patriots are getting their rhythm.
gcgey44 in ravens on 16 Nov 20 (1pts):
I have a feeling a loss is coming up in a ugly, rainy game.
gcesq6e in ravens on 15 Nov 20 (1pts):
You think Lamar is trolling all of us? Fake concern thrown out to the media to get them all worked up. Now opposing defenses start yapping a lot more instead of focusing on the play at hand. Maybe...
gcefj0v in ravens on 15 Nov 20 (1pts):
Pollard was a huge liability in coverage.
gc47cy6 in ravens on 13 Nov 20 (1pts):
Ouch. Orlovsky just lit up Greg Roman. Kiss that Head Coaching opportunity bye bye.
gc43vzq in ravens on 13 Nov 20 (1pts):
Baltimore is Defense first. Now and forever.
gc3umkd in ravens on 13 Nov 20 (1pts):
Yea but can he hurdle a man? Roll the Syracuse tape cuz Jackson can.
gbw3j2f in ravens on 11 Nov 20 (1pts):
Solid Pass Rush, Secondary, and Run stuffers. Why aren't people talking about how great this D is? #1 in the league.
gbv8foj in ravens on 10 Nov 20 (1pts):
NFL pimping him out while he's still a hot commodity because of his running ability. If he becomes a 100% passer, guarantee Ravens wouldn't get 4 games in a row in primetime.
gbsjrxl in ravens on 10 Nov 20 (1pts):
Ravens B team really going for it tonight.
gbn6p03 in ravens on 08 Nov 20 (1pts):
Dan Orlovsky was saying this. EDC basically ignoring the offense like he thinks this is the 2000 team.
gbn6c72 in ravens on 08 Nov 20 (1pts):
I'm going to watch the latest Mandalorian episode now. Be back later to smash something as we'll probably be down 17.
gbn5viu in ravens on 08 Nov 20 (1pts):
We should have traded for offense instead we get another defensive player. Eric Decosta the "genius."
submitted by MarkdownShadowBot to CommentRemovalChecker [link] [comments]

A final analysis on 2020 first round draft targets

Ladies and gents, Wild fans alike, now that we know we are officially a lottery team, here are my thoughts on players that could fall to us at 9th overall. Let’s dive in.
 
Alexander Holtz RW (Right shot, 6'0" 183 lbs) #27 in Sweden uni’s, #88 in SHL uni’s
Holtz is basically everything you want in a goal scoring wing, especially for our club considering he’s a right shot. Holtz is all around a solid skater, I think he’s slightly better east-west than north-south, but I don’t see any major issues with his skating even if I do wish he were faster. He has soft hands, and although he doesn’t flash them as much as others on this list he can deke guys out of their skates. Let’s not kid ourselves, goal scoring is Holtz’s bread and butter but he does have playmaking instincts in him. I was a bit surprised with his playmaking, and that should keep goalies guessing in the NHL. Of course, you can’t talk about Holtz without the goal scoring. Holtz’s shot is ridiculous. He has a nasty, accurate wrister with a quick release that he can rip in tight spaces. I was also surprised at how often he identified soft spots and often before they developed, which speaks to how good his scoring instincts are. When you combine the scoring instincts and ability with his underrated playmaking you get a very dangerous offensive player. Overall I think Holtz is a pretty safe bet to be at least 20 goal scorer in the NHL, but at his ceiling he could be near that 35-40 goal mark. I know we need a center, but we always could really use a right shot scoring wing and Holtz fills that need in spades.
 
Lucas Raymond RW (Right shot, 5'10" 183 lbs) #18 in videos
The savvy Raymond is a much different player (and prospect) than Holtz. With Raymond, it’s all about the skill. He’s a better skater than Holtz, but he’s still not necessarily a burner. His edge work/agility is actually very good, but he just lacks that top gear you especially like to see in a smaller player. What Raymond does not lack are incredible hands. Raymond can make defenders look silly with the dekes he’s able to pull off, and I think he has some of the best hands in the draft. With Raymond, his sensational playmaking and creativity are the names of the game. His vision on the ice and ability to create plays out of nothing is incredible. One thing to note about Raymond that gives me some concern is how much different he looked in international tournaments compared to his SHL games. Among peers, he stands out as easily the most talented player on the ice. Among grown adults, this was not the case and I worry about whether or not he can translate his game against the best players in the world. To tie it up, Raymond is a very high ceiling prospect but may have one of the lower floors of the players on this list. Maybe a high-risk high-reward prospect is what we need and I wouldn’t hesitate if he’s available at 9.
 
Cole Perfetti LW/C (Left shot, 5’10”, 18lbs) #91 in videos
Cole Perfetti is an offensive juggernaut. Do you want a guy who can score goals in bunches? Perfetti is your man. Do you want a guy that can run a PP and thread passes? Perfetti is your man. I don’t know if there’s anything he can’t do offensively. His skating isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either. His speed is fine, but he isn’t necessarily blowing by guys every shift. As you probably saw in that last clip Perfetti’s hands, however, are silky. Like Raymond, I’d say his hands are among the best in the draft. But as I alluded to earlier, the thing that makes Perfettis so special is his offensive ability and more specifically his sky-high hockey IQ. Perfetti has the rare ability to anticipate plays before they happen. He sees the ice in ways that few others do and can accurately predict the flow of the game to manipulate it to his desire. And even better, he has the passing ability to pull it off more often than not. Not to mention his scoring ability is fantastic. This particular sequence is extremely impressive with the way he tells his teammate to pass to his other teammate in the other faceoff circle, which leaves Perfetti wide open for a slap shot. It’s worth mentioning that Perfetti looks like he’ll be a LW in the NHL but he does have some experience at center. I don’t think he’ll be there for us at 9, but his offensive ability should be too good to pass up if he is.
 
Marco Rossi C (Left shot, 5’9”, 179lbs) #23 in videos
Rossi is a slick, competitive center whose size can fool you. He does not play like he’s only 5’9” and part of that is because of his very strong lower body. Notice how at the end of this clip Rossi gets shoved by a defenseman from behind who is clearly 3-4” taller than him and he shakes it off like nothing. That’s why I think he won’t have a problem with his size at center in the NHL. Like all of the previous players I’ve talked about, he isn’t going to burn you every shift, but he has some speed in him. He also combines good edge work with good hands to evade checks (yes, he just skated through three opponents without being touched). I know I’ve said this a lot already, but his hands are among the best in this class. He’s a very smart player and can thread needles and should run a first unit PP at the next level. And if you need Rossi to snipe some goals, he can do that too. I know this is a cliche, but Rossi is fearless and isn’t afraid to get to the dirty areas to score. In general, his competitiveness is something that really stood out to me, he’s feisty in his own zone and on the PK which is something I love to see in center prospects. If you haven’t noticed by now, Rossi is who I’m hoping falls to us at 9th overall. I have him as my 4th ranked prospect in this draft but as we all saw last year with Caufield, some teams are scared by shorter players so there’s a chance he’s available for us.
 
So we all know that the Oilers, Penguins, Rangers, or Leafs if they lose tonight are going to win 1st overall (semi-joking but also half serious) but just for fun I wanted to talk about who I feel are the best three prospects in this draft. Everyone who pays attention to the draft knows Lafreniere is the top player of this class, but I wanted to at least make a case for Byfield and Stutzle. This is mainly because we’ve seen how hard it is to have a franchise center and both of these guys could fill that need. In a way, it’s almost ironic that the draft we have the best chance of winning first overall is for a freaking LW. It would be really hard passing up someone as talented as Lafreniere, but it would also be really hard passing up a franchise center.
 
Quinton Byfield, C (Left shot, 6’4”, 214lbs) #55 in videos
The towering goal-scoring Byfield is seen by many as having the best toolkit in the draft. Byfield is an excellent skater. He can fly past guys which makes him a threat every time he steps onto the ice. This is especially impressive when you consider how huge he is. Byfield has some very soft hands. He isn’t flashy with them, rather he’s very efficient but they are buttery. One unique thing about Byfield is that I wouldn’t call him an excellent playmaker, but he’s a very good passer. Not that he’s a bad playmaker, because that’s far from the truth, but compared to others on this list he pales in comparison. That being said, Byfield more than makes up for that with his booming, accurate shot. He can get a ton of power behind his shot and he often snipes goals far from the net. Another unique thing about Byfield is how patient he is with the puck. Having this trait is something that’s very valuable in the NHL and Byfield seems to have mastered it. I’d like Byfield to be better defensively because he isn’t great in his own zone, but with his reach and skating he should have a pretty high ceiling when it comes to developing this area of his game. Byfield is a rare player. Guys with his size, skating, hands, and offensive ability truly are unicorns in this league. Oh yeah, and did I mention he’s one of the youngest players in the draft with an August 18th birthday (I can’t believe he’s still just 17)? When you combine everything, you can see why scouts gush over Byfield. His ceiling as a franchise goal-scoring center is astronomically high which should put him into the conversation at 1 overall, at least for a center-starved franchise like us.
 
Tim Stutzle C/LW (Left shot, 6’0”, 187lbs) #8 in videos
Before I get into why Stutzle is my favorite prospect in this entire draft, it’s important to keep in mind as you’re watching these clips that Stutzle is playing against grown men in Germany and absolutely embarrasses some of them. His skating ability is sensational. He can change directions in the blink of an eye and has incredible agility/edge work. I could go on, and on, and on about Stutzle’s skating because I think he’s the best skater in the entire draft, but I’ll end it with my favorite clip. Not only is he a great skater, but he also has some incredible hands to go along with his feet. But what makes Stutzle even more impressive is the fact that he's another player that owns the rare ability to create something out of nothing by using his phenomenal playmaking instincts. He can thread a tight pass and should rack up a ton of assists in the NHL. Like his skating, I could go on, and on, and on about his playmaking, but similar to his skating it’s because I think he’s the second best playmaker in the entire draft (you can probably guess who’s number 1). I also want to point out that while Germany has a big ice sheet, Stutzle excels in tight areas which is extremely translatable to the NHL where space is hard to find. Stutzle played most of this year on the left wing in the DEL, but he played a lot at center in Germany’s junior league. I think when you have someone with experience at center and combine that with the skating and playmaking ability that Stutzle has, I have a hard time believing he couldn’t be a center in the NHL. Like Byfield, Stutzle is a unique prospect but in very different ways. We’ve been spoiled recently with the Hughes brothers and Makar, but guys who can skate like Stutzle can with his creativity and playmaking are extremely rare. Not to mention he showed he can compete with grown men which is more than most players in the draft can say they’ve done. Stutzle is a very exciting player, especially for a franchise needing a superbly skilled center, and I could see Stutzle in consideration at fist overall for that reason.
 
Alexis Lafreinere LW (6’1”, 191 lbs) #11 in videos
And now the prize of the draft, Alexis Lafreniere, finally gets his spotlight on my list. Look, Lafreniere is the most talented player in this class. He can take over games and shift the momentum for his team. I think Stutzle and Byfield can do that, but to a lesser extent than Lafreniere. It’s almost maddening that he’s not a center, and I wouldn’t be surprised if whoever drafts him doesn’t at least try him there to see how he does. Anyways, if there’s one thing to not like about Lafreniere, it’s his skating. It’s not necessarily bad, but I’m left wanting more out of a consensus number one overall pick. It’s hard to fault him because everything else about him is unbelievably good. Lafreniere is a ridiculous playmaker. He knows that teams have to respect him, and he sometimes uses this to his advantage. This is how Lafreniere makes his teammates better. He can create space for them by drawing attention to himself, and then he makes magic and passes for an easy goal. Here’s another example of this unique ability. Another thing I love about his game is his deceptiveness. Notice how he looks at the net and lets off a quick pass to Rossi. Lafreniere can snipe as well, but most of his goals come from driving hard to the net hard. This is somewhat of a theme to his game as Lafreniere is a fiery player, he is not afraid to play the body. Here’s another [big hit](https://youtu.be/Q3SSY6_MvaA?t=3530. When you mix all of things together, you find yourself looking at yet another very unique player. He can beat you with his incredible skill, his deceptive vision, or his intense compete level. He’s dangerous in so many different ways that you can see how easy it is for him to tilt the ice, and when the going gets tough is when he shines the most. That’s why he’s the consensus first overall pick and that’s why it would be incredibly challenging to pass on a player like him.
 
This got a lot longer than I was expecting, but hopefully you have a better idea of some of the top players in this draft. Outside of these last three players, there’s a chance that one of the previous four fall to us at 9th overall, or maybe Guerin gets bold and moves up a few spots to take one. I discussed Lundell, Sanderson, and Quinn in my previous post this year, so they are not included here. But to briefly touch on all of them, I hold the unpopular opinion of not being high on Lundell. I talked about this in my last post, but I just didn’t see much in his offensive game that stood out even though he scored a lot for his age and I worry that his upside might not be more than a 3rd line checking/defensive center. You don't have to agree, and probably don't, but I just think his offensive game is too big of a risk to take at 9. I did (and still do) like Sanderson a lot, and with Suter not playing in our last game I would definitely consider him at 9. Quinn looks like a top scorer in this class and if any of the guys on this last are not available he's also worth considering at 9. Of course, just like last year with Boldy, I did not talk about Drysdale this year so he’s probably who we’re taking at 9 if he falls, but I’m hoping Guerin grabs an impact forward that we can count on to be a star player for us for a very long time.
submitted by TanSor to wildhockey [link] [comments]

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