1. Introduction
The Eagles have been a good model of consistency. Over the past 20 years, they have had just four losing seasons.
It wasn’t always pretty, but Philly managed to secure the NFC East title with a 9-7 record last year. They closed out the regular season with a four-game winning streak to edge the Cowboys atop the division.
Unfortunately, Carson Wentz exited the wildcard playoff game early and the team couldn’t overcome his absence in a 17-9 home loss to the Seahawks.
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
Carson Wentz needs to be applauded for his 2019 performance.
He had to deal with numerous injuries to his receiving corps and yet, he led the team to a playoff spot and he finished with a career-high in passing yards with 4,039. He threw 27 TD passes versus 7 interceptions, while playing all 16 games for the first time since his rookie season in 2016.
In the season finale, his top targets were Boston Scott, Dallas Goedert, Josh Perkins, Deontay Burnett and Greg Ward. Outside of Goedert, none is an established starter in the NFL. The Eagles still secured the NFC East title with a 34-17 road win in New York.
Philadelphia selected Jalen Hurts late in the second round of this year’s draft. He transferred from Alabama to Oklahoma for his senior year since Tua Tagovailoa was projected to be the starter. Hurst was actually replacing Kyler Murray who had just been taken as the number one overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft by the Cards.
Hurts did not disappoint in his lone season with the Sooners. He completed 237-of-340 passes (69.7%) with 3,851 passing yards, along with 32 TD passes and eight interceptions. He also rushed for 1,298 yards with 20 TDs on the ground!
His weaknesses are an average accuracy, inconsistent decision-making and a tendency to take off as a runner too often (sometimes when a receiver was open). He is likely to be used as a gadget player by Doug Pederson this year.
Nate Sudfeld will compete for the backup job. He missed the entire 2019 season due to a wrist injury he suffered during preseason. He was a sixth-round pick out of Indiana in the 2016 draft. He has attempted just 25 passes in the NFL in four years, so it’s hard to tell what to expect from him.
2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
Miles Sanders’ rookie season was a resounding success. He led all rookies with 1,327 yards from scrimmage.
He carried a heavier workload as the season went on. During the first eight games, he averaged 8.3 carries per game, as opposed to 14.1 over the last nine contests (including the playoff loss to the Seahawks).
Jordan Howard’s injury at midseason contributed to the increased usage of Sanders in the backfield. With Howard gone to Miami, the sky’s the limit for second-round pick out of Penn State.
Darren Sproles retired and Jay Ajayi was waived. That leaves the door wide open for third-year man Boston Scott. He flashed big time last year and unquestionably passed my eye test. The 5’6’’ back is very explosive.
Scott made a name for himself in Week #17 as he had to step in for Sanders who sprained an ankle in the first quarter against the Giants. Scott went on to rack up 138 total yards and three touchdowns.
2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
This unit was decimated by injuries last year. DeSean Jackson pretty much played just one game, while Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor missed six and five games, respectively.
Despite playing under his age-32 campaign, Jackson showed he still has field-stretching abilities in his lone meeting last year. He was spectacular with 8 catches for 154 yards and a couple of scores. He hasn’t played a full 16-game season very often in his career though.
Jeffery is another aging receiver coming off a significant injury. He underwent Lisfranc surgery, which requires a long rehab period. He’s questionable for the start of training camp.
Since two outstanding seasons in 2013 and 2014 with the Bears, Jeffery has missed four games per year on average, while showing signs of slowing down on the field as well. His 11.4 yards-per-catch average last year was a career low.
To be honest, I feel like Jeffery’s time in the league is coming to an end soon. Lisfranc injuries can be tricky for wide receivers, and full recovery is even more difficult for guys above 30 years of age.
Nelson Agholor was a younger WR who could have provided adequate depth, but he signed with the Raiders. The former first-rounder has not lived up to expectations, but he was still a decent pass catcher, albeit his drops were a big issue last year. Maybe a change of scenery will help rejuvenate his career.
Philly drafted Jalen Reagor with the #21 pick overall last April. He’s a smallish deep threat who is at his best on straight routes. He was good with contested catches, but will it still be the case in the NFL given his size? That’s a big question mark.
Reagor opened a lot of eyes by scoring eight touchdowns as a freshman with TCU after being a high recruit out of high school. He followed up with a great 72-1061-9 receiving line as a sophomore.
Reagor’s numbers dropped quite a bit as a junior (43-611-5), but you can attribute that to having a freshman QB at the helm. He’s an electrifying player who can take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
The competition for the number three role is also likely to involve Greg Ward and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. These two guys have had completely different paths before making it to the NFL.
Ward went undrafted before joining the AAF. He eventually was added to the Eagles’ practice squad, and later on promoted to the 53-man roster until a depleted receiving corps forced him onto the field.
Meanwhile, Arcega-Whiteside had more of a “conventional” journey by being drafted in the second-round of the 2019 draft.
Such resumes would suggest Arcega-Whiteside would be the superior wideout, but that’s not what we saw on the field. He only caught 10-of-22 targets for a disappointing 45% catch rate. He was rarely targeted down the stretch, despite the numerous injuries at the position.
On the other hand, Ward filled in admirably late in the season. Over the final four meetings, including the playoff game, he caught 20-of-25 targets (an 80% catch rate). He clearly deserves a shot as a top reserve for the upcoming season.
2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
The Eagles have a nice duo at the tight end position with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
Ertz is a true warrior. He hasn’t missed more than two games in each of his first seven season in the league. Last year, he played with two rib fractures one week after lacerating his kidney. Talk about a tough guy.
His numbers are also staggering. His lowest figures in terms of receptions and receiving yards over the past five years are 74 and 816. That’s truly remarkable! Please note that he’ll be turning 30 years old during the season.
Just like Ertz, Goedert is also a former second-rounder. However, he is four years younger. He caught 58 passes for 607 yards and 5 TDs, all career-highs. He was targeted 4 times per game on average before the team’s bye week versus an average of 7.9 for the remainder of the year. Granted, injuries to other targets probably boosted his numbers, but he still developed nice chemistry with Wentz.
2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
The Eagles have a heck of an offensive line.
You cannot blame Jason Kelce for anything over the past five years. He hasn’t missed any start, while consistently being one of the top centers in the league. As a matter of fact, he was rated as the #1 center in the NFL according to PFF grades last year. He’s now 32 years old.
Left tackle Jason Peters has been just as good as Kelce. He was nominated to nine Pro Bowls in his career and he finished as the number 6 tackle in the league with his 83.4 PFF mark. Unfortunately, the team decided to let the 38-year old hit the free agency market.
EDIT: he was re-signed three days ago (this article was written several weeks ago). He is projected to play guard instead of tackle.
Peters will be replaced with 2019 first-round pick, Andre Dillard. Is he ready to take on the full-time job? It remains to be seen, but it will be difficult to fill Peters’ shoes.
As for Lane Johnson, the right tackle finished as the 3rd-best tackle in the league based on the PFF grading system. He’s been very good throughout his seven-year career; the former #4 overall pick has not disappointed at all!
Brandon Brooks also had a huge 2019 season! He ended the year as the top guard in the NFL with a jaw-dropping 92.9 PFF mark. Much like Lane Johnson, Brooks is another player above 30 years old who’s been reliable his entire career.
Left guard Isaac Seumalo started all 16 games for the first time of his career. He’s the one that received the lowest grades on this OL, but finishing 17th out of 81 guards is nothing to be ashamed of! The former third-round pick from the 2016 draft is not as talented as his colleagues, but you could do worse than having him as one of your starters.
The team lost good depth with the departure of Halapoulivaati Vaitai to Detroit. The 2019 season was clearly his best year; it would have been nice to retain him but he signed a huge contract with the Lions.
2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
When comparing the upcoming 2020 season with last year, there are some positives and some negatives.
Let’s discuss the negative stuff first. I do expect a downgrade on the offensive line. They played at an extremely high level last year with four guys finishing among the 6 players at their respective position (based on PFF rankings). That’s unlikely to happen again, especially with three linemen aged 30 years or above.
Also, second-year man Andre Dillard has good potential, but it will be difficult to match Jason Peters’ 2019 performance. I do expect a drop-off here.
At quarterback and tight end, the situation remains stable.
At the running back position, losing Jordan Howard to free agency won’t hurt too much with the emergence of electrifying Boston Scott. Also, Miles Sanders is expected to take a leap in his sophomore season.
Finally, how could you not expect better production from the WR group? They were hit by the injury bug a lot last year. Agholor’s departure is a moderate blow; getting DeSean Jackson back is a bonus! Hopefully, speedy rookie Jalen Reagor can provide a spark to an offense that sorely missed game breakers last year.
The Eagles offense scored the 12th-highest number of points last year. My final conclusion, based on the arguments above, is that I expect similar production in 2020.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
Fletcher Cox is an animal. Plain and simple.
Despite posting his second-lowest sack output of his illustrious eight-year career, he still graded as the 4th-best interior defenders in the NFL based on PFF rankings. On average, he has recorded 6 sacks per year (he only got 3.5 last year)
He has also been very durable; he’s missed just three games out 128. He still has good years to come at age 29.
Tim Jernigan was a decent starter next to Cox, but he clearly wasn’t needed on the team anymore after the Eagles signed stud DT Javon Hargrave. The former Steeler showed steady improvement in each of his first four years in the NFL. His 83.4 PFF mark last year put him in the 8th spot out of 114 DLs.
With Hargrave entering his prime years and Fletcher Cox being a perennial beast, good luck running the ball inside the tackles against the Eagles in 2020.
After playing three years in Indy, Hassan Ridgeway had a below-average season in his first year with the Eagles. He’s more of a rotational player, whom you hope won’t be needed as a starter.
3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
Brandon Graham is 32 years old, but he refuses to slow down. He led the team with 8.5 sacks last year, and he has averaged six sacks over an eight-year period!
The guy also finds a way to stay on the field. Can you believe he has missed a single game in eight years! He’s been consistently good and remains a force, both against the run and rushing the passer.
Derek Barnett is a former first-rounder coming off a career-high in sacks with 6.5. However, his 2019 PFF grade was the lowest of his three-year stint in the NFL and he finished as the number 83 edge defender out of 107 qualifiers. He’s an “okay” player.
Vinny Curry played 38% of the snaps last year, but it does not appear like he will be back with the team. At the time of writing, he was still a free agent. He did pick up five sacks last year, but teams seem reluctant to sign him because he’ll be playing his age-32 campaign. He actually played pretty well when called upon.
With Curry gone, the team must hope Josh Sweat will elevate his game. The 2018 fourth-round selection posted his first four sacks of his career last year, but his 62.5 overall PFF mark ranked him as the 76th-best edge defender out of 107 guys.
3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
After playing four years in Buffalo and four years in Philly, Nigel Bradham was cut by the Eagles, mainly for cap reasons. He provided average play at the LB position; he was good in coverage, but he was a liability defending the run.
The team also lost Kamu Grugier-Hill, who signed with the Dolphins. You could characterize him as a decent player, albeit far from being great.
That leaves the team pretty thin at the position.
Nathan Gerry is the lone 2019 starter that is still with the team. He ranked as the 34th-best linebacker out of 89 players. He does not offer much upside, though. It would be stunning to see him crack the top 25 someday.
Can Duke Riley and/or T.J Edwards crack the starting lineup? Neither seem to be an up-and-coming star. Riley was acquired for peanuts prior to last year and he played 35 snaps. As for Edwards, he was an undrafted rookie out of Wisconsin that did well in limited time last year. He proved to be stout against the run.
3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
Philly’s back end has been revamped for the upcoming 2020 season.
The Eagles signed one of the best slot corners in the league: Nickell Robey-Coleman. He has received consistently good grades from ProFootballFocus over the past four years. At 5’8’’ he is pretty small, but you couldn’t tell from the quality of his game. He’s a nice addition.
Philly also acquired Darius “Big Play” Slay, who played the first seven years of his career with the Lions. He had a down year in 2019, but I’m not worried he can rebound in a new environment. He’s been covering opponent’s top receivers for a while in this league, and he’s done a good job at it. He has 19 career interceptions.
Ronald Darby’s career has been plagued with injuries recently and he was let go during the offseason. His PFF grade took an enormous drop last year, all the way from a respectable 70.6 in 2018 down to an abysmal 44.8 last year. He signed a one-year deal with the Redskins.
Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox are still on the team, but neither has proven to be an impactful contributor. Both graded as very below-average corners in 2019.
3.5 Safeties (S)
Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod both played the entire 2019 season. They ranked as the 32nd- and 52nd-best out of a bunch of 87 safeties.
The organization and Jenkins couldn’t agree on a deal, so the Eagles had to let him go after six very successful seasons. He picked off 11 passes during his six-year stint in Philly. He signed with the Saints, with which he spent the first five seasons of his career. Even though he wasn’t getting any younger, his present will be missed.
McLeod’s 2019 PFF grade was the lowest he had obtained over the past five years, but he still did a decent job.
Jalen Mills will be one piece of the puzzle in replacing Jenkins. But let’s face the reality: he has been pretty awful throughout his four-year career, except 2017 where he did better.
Another option will be newly acquired Will Parks, who is coming over from Denver. However, he’s clearly not a long-term solution either. He’s pretty versatile, but he’s a below-average player.
2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
This unit was upgraded quite a bit during the offseason at two positions, but it also suffered a severe downgrade at a couple others.
First, acquiring Javon Hargrave to team up with Fletcher Cox on the interior of the line was big! At CB, getting Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman will provide much needed help at a position that has caused headaches for years in Philly.
Unfortunately, the defense lost its best safety when Malcolm Jenkins signed with the Saints. Also, even though none of them was a true difference maker, losing linebackers Nigel Bradham and Kamu Grugier-Hill creates a hole.
Since the team acquired some big time players while losing good/average players, I envision a small improvement. In 2019, the Eagles finished in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed per game (15th out of 32 teams). I envision Philly finishing around the #10-#13 spot this year.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small upgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Eagles are expected to win 9.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
- Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
- Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
- Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
- Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
- Count the proportion of seasons where the Eagles won more or less than 9.5 games.
Here are the results:
| Estimated Probability | Sportsbook | Odds | ROI |
| OVER 9.5 WINS | 42.3% | FanDuel | -105 | -17.4% |
| UNDER 9.5 WINS | 57.7% | Pinnacle | -103 | +13.7% |
Tip: Bet UNDER 9.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +13.7%
Rank: 19th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -136
Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Eagles’ 16 regular season games:
- HOME: +2 vs BAL, -10 vs CIN, -2.5 vs DAL, -4 vs LAR, 0 vs NO, -5 vs NYG, -2 vs SEA, -10.5 vs WAS.
- ROAD: +1.5 @ ARI, 0 @ CLE, +2 @ DAL, +2.5 @ GB, -3.5 @ NYG, +1.5 @ PIT, +5.5 @ SF, -6 @ WAS.
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
I invite you to take a look at my other 31 NFL team previews! Good information if you are involved in fantasy football and/or if you want to be up-to-date on player movement and teams' strengths and weaknesses (for betting purposes)!
Cheers,
Professor MJ There was some conversations going around NBA twitter, about two months ago now, about the liklihood of current stars passing the current perceived legends (one I remember specifically was, what's more likely, Harden>Kobe, Steph>Magic, or Durant>Bird). That conversation piqued my interest a ton, I don't think we do a great job of contextualizing non-Lebron stars and so I thought I'd try my hand at just that. To make it something I could tangibly work towards, I narrowed down the idea to "How Many Top 25 Players are in the League", and producing at a high level.
To do that, needed to establish something resembling a consensus All-Time ranking, and I used Simmons Pyramid and top 50 lists from
CBS and
SI. The point of doing that instead of making my own list from scratch was that the focus of this analysis was contextualizing current players and I was hoping it would save time and prevent people from yelling at me. Ultimately, I basically used those as a framework to get a consensus group of 25 players, and then I put them in tiers (GOATs, Generational Talents, and Greats) from there based on the consulted works and criteria I thought made some sense. All the stats are pulled from Basketball Reference, so shout out to them. There's also pre-80s tiers from Greats and GOATs, just because the stats from that era are so weird and it would make any threshold basically pointless. The descriptions/reqs for each tier aren't supposed to be end all be alls, just a general idea, though I'm sure Kobe being in Tier 3 instead of Tier 2 will bother some people (the cutoff line basically became three titles as The Guy vs two, because I feel like the two title guys are closer to Malone than they are to Duncan). Anyway, another housekeeping note, I listed Wade and Dirk among the established All-Time Top 25 because they're role players at this point, and I wanted to focus on guys still playing at a star level.After the list of 'consensus' top 25 are four sections looking at current players, all focused on different career points and viability. And that's pretty much it, this is long as hell, but covered a lot of ground.
Last note on the formatting, the career profiles are sequenced like:
Player Name
- career stats
- peak season
- awards/accolades
with notations for any top ten ranking within major categories. There are a couple exceptions, Dirk and Havlicek have a line for
peak season as well as an extra for
playoff peaks just below it, because they had unreal playoff runs that didn't conicide with their regular season peaks that I felt were relevant; and Harden's
peak season is a consecutive two years, because I thought it was impressive mostly.
The projections for current players are based on 538s CARMELO model, it projects BPM and RPM (translated into wins), so players on good teams are rewarded and the more games you play in, assuming you're a plus player, the more you're rewarded. The stat doesn't trace production though, it's a plus/minus metric, I'm using it as a baseline for like, for how long and how good is each guy expected to be.
Link here to CARMELO Oh also, I actually ended up with 26, not 25 All-Timers, but I thought that would make the title even more nonsensical than it is and that's why I'm telling you here. On with it forreal now >
TL ; DR
Current Consensus All-Time Rankings
Tier 1: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain Tier 2: Shaquille O’ Neal, Tim Duncan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson Tier 3: Kobe Bryant, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwayne Wade, John Stockton, Kevin Garnett, David Robinson, Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Moses Malone, Julius Erving, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bob Pettit Current Stars With All-Time Careers
Part 1, Already In: Lebron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant Part 2, All-Time Peak but Short on GP: Stephen Curry, James Harden 3 and 4 aren't defintive , but are notable Part 3, Toss Up: Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook Part 4, Too Soon to Tell: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, Karl Anthony-Towns, Ben Simmons From my research I'd say there's at least 5 of the 25 best players ever in the league now, playing at a high level, and possibly as many as 11. Safe bet seems like 8 seems, it's hard to imagine at least one of BookeRuss/KAT/Simmons as well as Davis and Giannis busting hard enough to knock them off the path they've set for themselves and once the Lebron era finishes up the standard will be raised a good amount. This lil paragraph is gonna be posted at the end if you stick around till then. And for the people who like to read lots of stats and some words, enjoy ~
Pre-80s Tier 1 - GOATs
Bill Russell
- 963 GP: 14k Points ⋄ 21k Rebounds 2nd All-Time ⋄ 4k Assists ⋄ 163 Win Shares ⋄
- 18.9 ppg/23.6 rpg: 60-20 Record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄
- 5x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 1x All-Defense ⋄ 4x Rebound Leader ⋄ 11x Champion ⋄
Wilt Chamberlain
- 1045 GP: 31k Points 5th All-Time ⋄ 24k Rebounds All-Time Leader ⋄ 4.6k Assists ⋄ 247 Win Shares 2nd All-Time ⋄
- 50.4 ppg/25.7 rpg: 59-21 Record ⋄ NBA Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 4x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 2x All-Defense ⋄ 7x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄ 2x Champion ⋄
Tier 1 - GOATs 1000+ GP, 10x+ All-NBA, 6x+ combined MVP and FMVP, top 5 all-time points and win shares
Michael Jordan
- 1072 GP: 32k Points 4th All-Time ⋄ 6.7k Rebounds ⋄ 5.6k Assists ⋄ 2.5k Steals 3rd All-Time ⋄ 214 Win Shares 5th All-Time ⋄
- 30.4 ppg/6.6 rpg/4.3 apg/2.2 spg: 72-10 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 5x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 9x All-Defense ⋄ 10x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x DPOY ⋄ ROY ⋄ 6x NBA Champion ⋄ 6x FMVP ⋄
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
- 1560 GP 2nd All-Time: 38k Points All Time Leader ⋄ 17k Rebounds 3rd All-Time ⋄ 5.6k Assists ⋄ 3.2k Blocks 3rd All-Time ⋄ 273 Win Shares All Time Leader ⋄
- 31.7 ppg/16.0 rpg/3.3 apg: 66-16 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 6x MVP ⋄ 15x All-NBA ⋄ 11x All-Defense ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 4x Block Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 6x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Tier 2: Generational Talents 900x+ GP, 4x combined FMVP and MVP, 10x All-NBA
Tim Duncan
- 1392 GP: 26.5k Points ⋄ 15k Rebounds 6th All-Time ⋄ 4.2k Assists ⋄ 3k Blocks 5th All-Time ⋄ 1k Steals ⋄ 206 Win Shares 7th All-Time ⋄
- 22.2 ppg/12.9 rpg/3.9 apg/2.9 bpg: 60-22 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 15x All-NBA ⋄ 15x All-Defense ⋄ ROY ⋄ 5x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Magic Johnson
- 906 GP: 17k Points ⋄ 6.6k Rebounds ⋄ 10k Assists 5th All-Time ⋄ 1.7k Steals ⋄ 156 Win Shares ⋄
- 23.9 ppg/6.3 rpg/11.2 apg/1.7 spg: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 3x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 4x Assist Leader ⋄ 5x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Larry Bird
- 897 GP: 21.8k Points ⋄ 9k Rebounds ⋄ 5.7k Assists ⋄ 1.5k Steals ⋄ 146 Win Shares ⋄
- 25.8 pgg/9.8 rpg/6.8 apg/2.0 spg: 67-15 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 3x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ ROY ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Shaquille O’Neal
- 1207 GP: 28.6k Points 8th All Time ⋄ 13k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 2.7k Blocks 8th All-Time ⋄ 182 Win Shares ⋄
- 29.7 ppg/13.6 rpg/3.8 apg/3.0 bpg: 67-15 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 14x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 4x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Pre-80s Tier 3:Greats
Oscar Robertson
- 1040 GP: 26.7k Points ⋄ 9.9k Assists 6th All Time ⋄ 7.8k Rebounds ⋄ 189 Win Shares ⋄
- 31.4 ppg/11.0 apg/9.9 rpg: 55-25 record ⋄ MVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 6x Assist Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Jerry West
- 932 GP: 25.2k Points ⋄ 6.2k Assists ⋄ 5.4k Rebounds ⋄ 162 Win Shares ⋄
- 30.8 ppg/5.4 apg/7.9 rpg: 54-26 record ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 12x All-NBA ⋄ 5x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄ 1x FMVP only FMVP in a losing series-37.9 ppg/7.4 apg/4.7 rpg ⋄
John Havlicek
- 1270 GP: 26.4k Points ⋄ 8k Rebounds ⋄ 6k Assists ⋄ 132 Win Shares ⋄
- 28.9 ppg/9.0 rpg/7.5 apg: 44-38 record ⋄
- 18 GP/27.1 ppg/6.4 rpg/6.0 apg: 12-6 record ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 11x All-NBA ⋄ 8x All-Defense ⋄ 8x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
Elgin Baylor
- 846 GP: 23k Points ⋄ 11.5k Rebounds ⋄ 3.6k Assists ⋄ 104 Win Shares ⋄
- 34.0 ppg/14.3 rpg/4.8 apg: 54-26 record ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 10x All-NBA ⋄ ROY ⋄
Bob Pettit
- 792 GP: 20.9k Points ⋄ 12.8k Rebounds ⋄ 2.4k Assists ⋄ 136 Win Shares ⋄
- 29.2ppg/16.4 rpg/3.1 apg: 49-23 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Tier 3: Greats Any of 1x MVP/double digit All-NBA/top ten in any major category gets at least a look here. Hakeem and Kobe could be up a tier, I just think they're closer to Malone than they are to Duncan, for example.
Kobe Bryant
- 1346 GP: 33.6k Points 3rd All-Time ⋄ 7k Rebounds ⋄ 6.3k Assists ⋄ 172 Win Shares ⋄
- 26.8 ppg/5.2 rpg/4.9 apg: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 15x All-NBA ⋄ 12x All-Defense ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 5x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Karl Malone
- 1476 GP 4th All-Time:36.9k Points 2nd All-Time ⋄ 15k Rebounds 7th All-Time ⋄ 5.3k Assists ⋄ 2k Steals 10th All-Time ⋄ 1k Blocks ⋄ 234 Win Shares 3rd All-Time ⋄
- 27.4 ppg/9.9 rpg/4.5 apg/1.4 spg: 64-18 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 14x All-NBA ⋄ 4x All-Defense ⋄
Hakeem Olajuwon
- 1238 GP: 26.9k Points ⋄ 13.7k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 3.8k Blocks All-Time Leader ⋄ 2k Steals 8th All-Time ⋄ 163 Win Shares ⋄
- 27.3 ppg/11.9 rpg/3.6 apg/3.7 bpg/1.6 spg: 58-24 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ DPOY ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 12x All-NBA ⋄ 9x All-Defense ⋄ 2x DPOY ⋄ 2x Rebound Leader ⋄ 4x Block Leader ⋄ 2x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Moses Malone
- 1455 GP 7th All-Time: 29.6k Points 9th All-Time ⋄ 17.8k Rebounds 5th All-Time ⋄ 1.9k Assists ⋄ 1.9k Blocks ⋄ 179 Win Shares ⋄
- 24.5 ppg/15.3 rpg/2.0 bpg/1.1spg: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 3x MVP ⋄ 8x All-NBA ⋄ 2x All-Defense ⋄ 4x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
John Stockton
- 1504 GP 3rd All-Time:19.7k Points ⋄ 15.8k Assists All-Time Leader ⋄ 4k Rebounds ⋄ 3.2k Steals All-Time Leader ⋄ 208 Win Shares 6th All-Time ⋄
- 14.7 ppg/12.3 apg/3.1 rpg/2.4 spg: 60-22 record ⋄
- 11x All-NBA ⋄ 5x All-Defense ⋄ 9x Assist Leader ⋄
Charles Barkley
- 1073 GP: 23.8k Points ⋄ 12.5k Rebounds ⋄ 4.2k Assists ⋄ 177 Win Shares ⋄
- 25.6ppg/12.2 rpg/5.1 apg/1.6 spg/1.0 bpg: 62-20 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 11x All-NBA ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄
Dirk Nowitzki - Active
- 1471 GP 5th All-Time :31k Points 6th All-Time ⋄ 11k Rebounds ⋄ 3.6k Assists ⋄ 206 Win Shares 8th All-Time ⋄
- 24.6 ppg/8.9 rpg/3.4 apg/50-40-90 splits: 65-17 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄
- 21 GP/27.7 ppg/8.1 rpg/2.6 apg ⋄ 16-5 record ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 12x All-NBA ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
Scottie Pippen
- 1178 GP: 18.9k Points ⋄ 7.5k Rebounds ⋄ 6k Assists ⋄ 2.3k Steals 6th All-Time ⋄ 125 Win Shares ⋄
- 20.2 ppg/6.5 rpg/5.7 apg/1.9 spg: 69-13 record ⋄ 1st seed ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄
- 7x All-NBA ⋄ 10x All-Defense ⋄ 6x NBA Champion ⋄
Kevin Garnett
- 1462 GP 6th All-Time: 26k Points ⋄ 14.6k Rebounds⋄ 5.4k Assists ⋄ 2k Blocks ⋄ 1.8k Steals ⋄ 191 Win Shares 9th All-Time ⋄
- 24.2 ppg/13.9 rpg/5.0 apg (!)/1.5 spg/2.2 bpg: MVP ⋄ 58-24 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 9x All-NBA ⋄ 12x All-Defense ⋄ 1x DPOY ⋄ 4x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Julius Erving - no ABA
- 836 GP: 18k Points ⋄ 5.6k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 1.5k Steals ⋄ 1.3k Blocks ⋄ 106 Win Shares ⋄
- 24.6 ppg/8.0 rpg/4.4 apg/2.1 spg/1.8 bpg: 62-20 record ⋄ MVP ⋄ ECF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 1x NBA Champion ⋄
Dwyane Wade - Active
- 980 GP: 22k Points ⋄ 4.6k Rebounds ⋄ 5.4k Assists ⋄ 1.6k Steals ⋄ 118 Win Shares ⋄
- 27.2 ppg/5.7 rpg/6.7 apg/1.9 spg: 52-30 record ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 8x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄ 1x FMVP ⋄
Steve Nash
- 1217 GP: 17.4k Points ⋄ 10k Assists 3rd All-Time ⋄ 3.6k Rebounds ⋄ 130 Win Shares ⋄
- 18.8 ppg/10.5 apg/4.2 rpg/50-40-90 splits: 54-28 record ⋄ MVP ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 5x Assist Leader ⋄
David Robinson
- 987 GP: 20.8k Points ⋄ 10.5k Rebounds ⋄ 2.4k Assists ⋄ 3k Blocks 6th All-Time ⋄ 1.4k Steals ⋄ 179 Win Shares ⋄
- 27.6 ppg/10.8 rpg/2.9 apg/3.2 bpg/1.7spg: 62-20 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 10x All-NBA ⋄ 8x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Rebounding Leader ⋄ 1x Blocks Leader ⋄ 1x DPOY ⋄ ROY ⋄ 2x NBA Champion ⋄
Recap
Tier 1: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain
Tier 2: Shaquille O’ Neal, Tim Duncan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson
Tier 3: Kobe Bryant, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, John Stockton, Kevin Garnett, Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Moses Malone, Julius Erving, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bob Pettit, David Robinson
Part 1: Already In Self explantory, players who have already put in strong enough careers to be listed among the top 25 ever while still in their relative prime.
Lebron James
- 1143 GP: 31k Points 7th All-Time ⋄ 8k Assists ⋄ 8k Rebounds ⋄ 1.9k Steals ⋄ 219.4 Win Shares 4th All-Time ⋄
- 26.8 ppg/8.0 rpg/7.3 apg/1.7 spg/0.9 bpg: 62-20 record ⋄ 1st Seed ⋄ MVP ⋄ NBA Champion ⋄ FMVP ⋄
- 4x MVP ⋄ 14x All-NBA ⋄ 6x All-Defense ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄ 3x FMVP ⋄
Best Career Comps: Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Shaq (?)
Current Ranking: Borderline Tier 1/2
Projected Career: There’s been a ton of ink already spilled on Lebron’s GOAT candidacy and all-time significance, so won’t spend much time here. Two more seasons at roughly his current production and that’s a consensus top 3 all time career, where he’d only be 36 with a chance to get into truly unprecedented levels of sustained dominance.
Read Zach Kram’s piece if you want analysis here, it’s basically what I’m doing but more well defined and uniform in every way. Here’s roughly the range of numbers given there (Win Shares estimated):
40k Points All-Time Leader ⋄ 11k Assists 3rd All-Time ⋄ 11k Rebounds ⋄ 260 Win Shares 2nd All-Time ⋄ Projected Ranking: Tier 1 Kevin Durant
- 771 GP: 20.9k Points ⋄ 5.5k Rebounds ⋄ 3k Assists ⋄ 130.2 Win Shares ⋄
- 32.0 ppg/7.4 rpg/5.5 apg/1.3 spg: 59-23 record ⋄ MVP ⋄ WCF ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 4x Scoring Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄ 2x NBA Champion ⋄ 2x FMVP ⋄
Best Career Comps: Dwanye Wade, Bob Pettit, Larry Bird
Current Ranking: Low Tier 3
Projected Career: There have been 29 individual seasons of 30/5/5 averages, move that to 30/7/5.5 and it’s cut to 11 seasons, include a 60%TS qualifier to the search and you’ll find two seasons, Michael Jordan’s ‘88-’89 season and Kevin Durant’s ‘13-’14 season, increase the parameters to Durant’s actual averages of 32.0ppg/7.4rpg/5.5apg/1.3spg on 50/39/87 splits or 63%TS/56%eFG and he stands alone. That is a Tier 1 level peak, one of the 20 or so best seasons ever (maybe that’ll be my next project), but his candidacy is going to have some holes. This year has really strengthened the idea that even if Durant is better that Curry is more important to the Warriors, Durant got that FMVP (two now) and was fantastic in that (those) series, but to date only one (two) title (s) total and only one Finals appearance as “the guy”. I think that matters to an extent, looking at positional rankings he’s chasing Bird, who got three titles and two FMVP, but was no question the guy on all three of those teams. Durant’s career is going to be longer, so he’ll pass Bird statistically at some point within the next three years probably, with the metrics are pretty neck and neck. Once he gets to 900-1100 GP, he’ll be near or at the top of Tier 3 and once he closes in on 1200 he’ll be fringe Tier 2, with Hakeem or Kobe, the real question is how many games he has left. Multiple serious injuries to this point in his career, and it’s easy to forget he’s a legit 7 footer who’s going to be 30 next season, and the durability concerns that generally come with that. CARMELO was pretty spot on with his value this year, overestimated his decline just a touch, and he’s expected to be in the same range next year. After that, his value is projected in the above average wing range, similar to Jaylen Brown, KCP, and Kyle Korver this year, for the following three years; finally, two seasons in the Jeff Green/Buddy Hield range. Assuming he sticks at the 65-70 game range, that could look something like: 70 games at 25.0/6.5/5.0/1.0/1.0, 200 games at 21.5/4.0/5.5/1.0/1.0, and 130 games at 18.5/4.0/4.5/1.0/1.0, and Win Shares wise those sections should respectively net about 10, 21, and 9. Adding that onto his current career, his final profile would be:
1171 GP: 29.5k Point 8th All-Time ⋄ 7.3k Rebounds ⋄ 5k Assists ⋄ 1.3k Blocks ⋄ 1.3k Steals ⋄ 170 Win Shares ⋄ If his defense actually picks up to peak OKC levels, the Warriors win 3-4 titles in a row, or he has one or two more 30 point seasons, his profile will end up a lot stronger than this, but based on this year and his projections I think it’s as likely his career gets short by injuries or he doesn’t even get 400 more games. There’s a lot of variance with Durant, his metrics have always been kinda weird and the deeper this Warriors run goes you’d think his regular season games will drop, ultimately this seems reasonable.
Projected Ranking: Upper Tier 3 - Borderline Tier 2/3 Chris Paul
- 892 GP: 16.7k Points ⋄ 8.7k Assists 9th All-Time ⋄ 4k Rebounds ⋄ 2k Steals ⋄ 164.8 Win Shares ⋄
- 19.1 ppg/10.2 apg/4.6 rpg/1.9 spg: 56-26 record ⋄
- 8x All-NBA ⋄ 9x All-Defense ⋄ 4x Assist Leader ⋄ ROY ⋄
Best Career Comps: Magic Johnson, Steve Nash, Hakeem Olajuwon
Current Ranking: Lower Tier 3
Projected Career: Currently 538’s projections have CP logging two more seasons of similar quality to this year’s effort, where he put up 18.6/7.9/5.4/1.7 in 58 games, then two seasons at roughly Rubio production, before transitioning into a full time role player. Some notable comps are late career Chauncey and Stockton, betting on at least 4 more quality 60 game campaigns appears to be safe though. The first two let’s say at 17/7/4/1.5 and the back two at 13/7/3/1, which adds 240 GP, 3.6k Points, 1.7k Assists, .8k Rebounds, and .3k Steals. For the first two seasons add on 18 Win Shares and for the back two add 8 Win Shares (CP got 10 this year, Rubio had 5 for reference).That puts a safe estimate for Paul’s final tally at:
1132 GP: 20.3k Points ⋄ 10.4k Assists 3rd All-Time ⋄ 4.8k Rebounds ⋄ 2.3k Steals 5th All-Time ⋄ 190.8 Win Shares10th All-Time ⋄ Without getting into metrics and efficiency, and especially in a conversation generally very saturated with playoff accomplishments, it’s a bit complicated to establish Paul’s spot. Luckily I am using Win Shares and that stat displays a lot of what I’m talking about with CP3, specifically let’s compare him first to Wade, who holds an 100 game and 5000 point lead on Paul. Which hypothetically should give Wade a leg up in this metric, more game time and more pure production, but in actuality, Wade trails CP in this area by a margin of >50< Win Shares, or the equivalent of five ‘18 Chris Paul seasons (who lead the league in Win Shares/48), or two ‘72 Kareem seasons (the single season Win Share record); Pippen has 300 more games, more points, played for winninger teams, and is considered a better defender, but Paul has 25 more Win Shares (or two 2001 Allen Iverson seasons); Kobe has 300 more games and has doubled CP’s point total, yet only holds a 8 Win Shares advantage (that’s less than Paul had this year in a 58 game campaign); Nash has a 300 game edge, more Assists, and more Points, and is generally considered a better floor general, but even so trails CP by a staggering 40 Win Shares. Building on the abursdity of CP's Win Share collection, it’s not like Paul’s numbers are anything to look down on. There’s only 15 seasons on record with his career averages, of which he accounts for five, but it also doesn’t really seem acknowledged that he’s basically averaged 20/10 for a decade now. Honestly I kinda think it’s because he only averaged at least 20 for two of those seasons, and players aren’t really mentally benchmarked as elite scorers if they’re at 19.0ppg instead 21.5ppg. Regardless, Paul’s definitely up there already, honestly I’d have him tied with Wade in the 20s, and depending on his longevity going forward, he should pass Stockton. He won’t have the same longevity as Stockton, but the comparison between their peak seasons and longevity of peak is a joke, ultimately the 2nd PG All Time behind Magic is CP's for the taking. Game total and playoff success are working against him, and the clocks ticking, but I think he ends up passing Stockton and somewhere in the top 20. A consecutive decade with 19/10/4/2 on 48/38/88 as the premier defender at his position is just ludacris, his final act should add some much needed playoff success and resume padding.
Projected Ranking: High Tier 3 Part 2: All-Time Peak, Short on GP Title explains.
James Harden
- 687 GP: 15.8k Points ⋄ 4.1k Assists ⋄ 3.5k Rebounds ⋄ 1k Steals ⋄ 106.7 Win Shares ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 5x All-NBA ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄ 1x 6MOY ⋄
- 29.7 ppg/10.0 apg/6.6 rpg/1.6 spg: 120-46 record ⋄
Comparable Peaks: Larry Bird, Shaquille O' Neil + Steve Nash, Oscar Robertson
Projected Career: First things first, Harden’s individual peak season, either last year or this year depending on playoff performance, is Tier 2 level. 30 ppg and 10 apg on his efficiency is plain absurd, the only better perimeter scorer seasons are Jordan and Lebron. The main two things working against him at the moment is it taking him 3 years to reach high volume numbers and lack of playoff accolades, so even though his peak is already better than Kobe's, it would take a great deal to pass him everything else considered. Next thing to note is a bit of a quirk in Harden’s CARMELO projections, his top ten closest comps include prime Grant Hill, Deron Williams, and Magic Johnson, as well as ‘91 Jordan and ‘10 Wade. Grant Hill had a steep drop off due to injuries, Magic had a medical situation that cut his prime short, Williams just fell off, Jordan took two years off for baseball, and Wade was at the tail end of his prime. It seems like those specific comps curbed his projections, because considering his durability and non-athletic dependent skillset I wouldn’t expect that much of a drop in production for another 3ish years when he hits 31-32. With those caveats out of the way, and a note that he overperformed his projection this year, CARMELO gives him three more years at around a Paul George/Derozan/Beal level and the three after that in Teague range. Next three years assume he stays in the 75 GP a year range, and I’m going with a line of 26.5/7.5/4.5 which... is low looking at his past 3 years and a tad generous looking at the CARMELO projections, but uhh.. can’t please everyone. That adds 6k Points, 1.7k Assists, and 1k Rebounds to his total, with roughly 35 Win Shares. That takes him through his 31 year old season, and for the following three years I’m gonna be a bit more generous in relation to the CARMELO numbers, for years 32-34 I think 65 GP with 23.5/9/4 is well within reason. This gives him another 4.6k Points, 1.8k Assists, and .8k Rebounds, plus 25 Win Shares going into year 15, where he’d be at 1107 career games. He’ll probably play longer than that but projecting that far gets dicey so his final talley here is:
1107 GP: 26.4k Points ⋄ 7.6k Assists ⋄ 5.3k Rebounds ⋄ 156.7 Win Shares ⋄ That’s a stronger profile straight up than Wade, Erving, Pippen, and Nash, and very much comparable to Barkley. 3 MVP level seasons with around 8x All-NBA and 1000GP is something only a handful of perimeter players have accomplished.
Projected Ranking: Tier 3 Stephen Curry
- 14k Points ⋄ 4k Assists ⋄ 2.8k Rebounds ⋄ 1k Steals ⋄ 93.3 Win Shares ⋄
- 30.1 ppg/6.7 apg/5.4 rpg/2.1 spg/50-45-90 splits: 73-9 record ⋄ MVP first ever unanimous ⋄ Finals Runner-Up ⋄
- 2x MVP ⋄ 5x All-NBA ⋄ 1x Scoring Leader ⋄ 3x NBA Champion ⋄
Comparable Peaks: Dwanye Wade, Steve Nash, Jerry West, Dirk Nowitizki
Projected Career: If Curry retired tomorrow he would go down as the greatest shooter to ever play the game and he already holds one of the best offensive seasons ever, putting up 30 a game on a ridiculous 67%TS/63%eFG (the only player with a season of that volume and efficiency) with an equally absurd 125 OffRating in 2700 minutes. Curry’s peak puts him in the Tier 1-2 conversation and in the top 5 point guard conversation, assuming he can start stacking games to bolster his resume. The main blemishes here are a good, but not great, first MVP season(24/8/4/2, 67 wins, title), no FMVP(he deserved Iguodala's), and not really breaking out till he was 24-25. He’s smack in the middle of his prime right now though, he could hypothetically double his game count depending on how he ages. There’s also at the very least, one more year of this Warriors run, but probably longer and while the Rockets are a very real threat, that team isn’t built for the long term. Point being, Curry could feasibly end up with 4-5+ titles, alongside 2 MVPs, a ton of wins, greatest shooter ever, and that’s looking like a resume that could start rivaling Magic. Bringing in the CARMELO, he’s projected to be pretty steady for the next six years; he underperformed this year because he only played 51 games, but is expected to stay at the same effectiveness next year, before marginal a drop, three years at that level, and another two after another small drop. It’s a close enough overall range I’m just going to combine all six of those seasons, 65 games a piece (he’s, somewhat surprisingly, only played less than 74 twice but playing full seasons as the Warriors age seems unlikely +leveraging in case of injuries) at 24.0/6.5/4.5/1.5. That point total may seem low, but that includes his age 34-35 seasons where you’d assume a dip in production of some kind; in terms of increasing Curry’s career stats, from this scenario he adds; 390 GP: 9.4k Points ⋄ 2.5k Assists ⋄ 1.8k Rebounds ⋄ .6k Steals and 55 Win Shares or so. Given that, we’re looking at a final tally of:
1,015 GP: 23.4k Points ⋄ 6.5k Assists ⋄ 4.6k Rebounds ⋄ 1.6k Steals ⋄ 143.3 Win Shares ⋄ A total like that with a peak as strong as his gets into Tier 2 range with enough wins and playoff success. I think his profile is a touch stronger than Durant given the two MVPs, 73 win season, and Championship prior to Durant joining. I’m not going to project titles or playoff success, but with his head start accolade wise and their success from here on out being tied, I give him a little bit stronger chance to end up Tier 2, especially if he ever nabs at least one FMVP.
Projected Ranking: Borderline Tier 2/3 Part 3: Toss Up A bit more vague, but I explain the reasoning on why they're not in the tier up in their projections.
Russell Westbrook
- 748 GP: 17k Points ⋄ 5k Rebounds ⋄ 6k Assists ⋄ 1.3k Steals ⋄ 90.1 Win Shares ⋄
- 1x MVP ⋄ 7x All-NBA ⋄ 2x Scoring Leader ⋄ 1x Assist Leader ⋄
- 31.6 ppg/10.4 apg/10.7 rpg/1.6 spg: 47-35 record ⋄ MVP ⋄
Projected Career: Well, this is definitely an interesting one, back-to-back triple double seasons, an MVP, a few deep playoff runs with Durant, but about to hit 30 with the very legitimate possibility he doesn’t sniff the Finals again. Despite a few notable scoring seasons, he only actually has 3 seasons above 25 ppg and his career average is somehow only 23 ppg despite a
career usage of 32.7%. And yet, an MVP and 1000GP is close to automatic entry to this very definitive, scientific ranking; ultimately failing to pick up a title with Durant is probably going to hurt his resume a good bit when he’s lacking in so many other areas. Taking a step back from narrative and context, let’s see how his stats could measure out; CARMELO gives him two more elite seasons and then four really good seasons and Russ generally does play full seasons, so that could work in his favor. 150 games at 27.0ppg/8.5rpg/8.5apg/1.5spg with 18 Win Shares, and the four season period after that a very slight less game load where he’ll be ages 32-35, so 280 games at 24.0ppg/8.5apg/6.0rpg/1.5spg and 28 Win Shares. His new total given this is:
1,178 GP: 27.8k Points 9th All-Time ⋄ 8k Rebounds ⋄ 9.7k Assists 7th All-Time ⋄ 1.9k Steals ⋄ 136.1Win Shares ⋄ Everything said prior and acknowledging the holes in his game and legacy, that’s a damn impressive career profile. Top ten in scoring and assists, and he has a shot at steals too, basically the pure counting stats would have him in, but no 60 win or title seasons as The Guy is sorta damaging. “Best Player on a Bunch of Sub-50 Win Teams, Only 1 Finals Appearance with Prime Durant” isn’t a generous reading per say, but also wouldn't be particularly untrue to point out. There’s definitely a threshold where his numbers are so ridiculous he gets in though, and the MVP is a very strong accolade, so wait and see?
Projected Ranking: Fringe Tier 3 Anthony Davis
- 410 GP: 9.6k Points ⋄ 4.2k Rebounds ⋄ .7k Assists ⋄ 1k Blocks ⋄ .5k Steals ⋄ 62.5 Win Shares ⋄
- 28.1 ppg/11.1 rpg/2.3 apg/2.6 bpg/1.5 spg: 48-34 record ⋄
- 3x All-NBA ⋄ 3x All-Defense ⋄ 3x Block Leader ⋄
Projected Career: Little fun fact about Anthony Davis, he is a full 25 years of age, and won’t turn 26 until -next- March. He led the league in PER at age 21 and should reasonably be in his prime for another seven years, even with some nagging injury concerns. Because of the day-to-day nature of following the league, it’s easy to forget perspective when looking at players, especially younger ones with prodigious talent. Anthony Davis averaged 28 and 12 with All-NBA defense when he was 23, and we’ve seen big men who didn’t fully blossom until they’re 28 or later. The sky is absolutely still the limit for AD basically, his metrics and the Pels defensive stats lag, suggesting that his team defense has room for improvement, he’s already added a 3pt shot this year, and now it looks like the Pels should be playoff competitors through Holiday and (possibly)Boogie’s primes with AD. CARMELO has Davis staying in the same range of production until he’s 30, but the model doesn’t go past there, I’m gonna give him to age 35 though with a guesstimate drop. This is projecting the farthest so even though the numbers will probably easily be in Tier 2 or 3, it’s not definitive. For these next six years, his production should be similar and should actually increase, but in the interest of being conservative here, 70 games a year at 27.0/11.5/2.0/2.0/1.0 with 11.5 Win Shares. Through his first six years he’s played 410 games, so it’s only a small uptick, but if he’s healthy from here on out that number should be higher too. At that point he’ll be 31 with five seasons till he’s 35, and a lot of great bigs still played full time into their late 30s, but given the modern NBA I’m going to drop him to 65 games a year for those years at 23.0/9.5/2.0/1.0 and 8.0 Win Shares. It is entirely reasonable to expect him to blow those numbers out of the water though, but even with that let’s take a look at his new profile, with an added; 745 GP: 18.8k Points ⋄ 7.9k Rebounds ⋄ 1.5k Assists ⋄ 1.5k Blocks ⋄ .7k Steals ⋄ 97.5 Win Shares. On top of his current numbers, that gives him a final line of:
1,155 GP: 28.4k Points9th All-Time ⋄ 12.1k Rebounds ⋄ 2.2k Assists ⋄ 2.5k Blocks
10th All-Time ⋄ 1.2k Steals ⋄ 160.0 Win Shares ⋄ Moral of the story being that if AD stays healthy and stops improving he could sleepwalk into top ten All-Time in points and blocks. He’s at a point where he legitimately could have two more leaps though, on top of the possibility of him having a crazy long career, ala Dirk/Kareem; as well as the fact that during his real prime (generally ages 28-31): Lebron will be on the wrong side of 36 and the Warriors will be broken up or see some age regress as Curry and Durant head towards 35, so there could be some legit playoff success. He could end up anywhere in the top 25, and I would bet on him making it into there in some fashion.
Projected Ranking: Assuming health, floor is Tier 3. Outside that, who knows? Part 4: Too Soon to Tell
This is seriously way-way-way too soon, however, there’s a few players who have historically impressive early careers and should be given a cursory glance.
Giannis Anteokounmpo Why He’s Notable: This should go without saying, but averaging 27/10/5/1.5/1.5 with 12 Win Shares at age 23 is extremely impressive. Giannis could’ve gotten a profile, AD only has one more actual season on him, but AD has been producing like a cornerstone for four years now and Giannis has only been at this level for just two seasons, including the most recent campaign. He’s the youngest player in the modern era to have at least 25/9/4 in a season, so this is another sky’s the limit player, however I would say Tier 1 is likely out of reach though. He’s made a major leap every year in the league and is about six years short of his prime at the moment, so even though his first two seasons could weigh down his eventual career profile, he could very easily catch up to a lot of Tier 3 guys who had injury periods or weren’t first options large parts of their career. Depending on who the Bucks bring in to coach, Giannis could have Tier 1 peak as soon as next year if the Bucks defensive numbers tick back up and their win total starts to match their talent.
Ben Simmons Why He’s Notable: Simmons statline this year was a startlingly impressive for a rookie,
81 GP- 15.8ppg/8.1rpg/8.2apg/1.7spg/0.9bpg/9.2 Win Shares, 52-30 record.
Well actually, the rookie qualifier isn’t even necessary to illustrate the rarity of his season, there have only ever been 16 seasons in the history of the NBA with a 15-8-8 line and of those 16 seasons, Simmons is not only the youngest but ranks second in DRPM and third in Defensive Win Shares. Include his 1.5 Steals a game and it’s an even more exclusive club with just seven seasons putting up that line. He is already 21 and the free throwing shooting is a concern, but even if he barely improved and averaged 18.5ppg/8.5apg/8.5rpg/1.5spg/1.0bpg/10 Win Shares as a top ten defender for the next 13-14 years, that’s an all time career. The fact that he’s already putting up All Time numbers bodes very well for the 76ers, his start was legitimately strong enough that Tier 2 is within the realm of possibility if he makes any major leap within the next 3-4 years.
Devin Booker Why He’s Notable: Booker is one of 9 players to ever average 24.5ppg by age 21, and that’s honestly the only noteworthy accomplishment he has, but points are pretty important so note this accomplishment I have. Issue projecting Booker is his playoff and team success in the next decade is an complete unknown and and he could reasonably hit 6,000 Points before he’s 23, a near lock (health presuming) for the All-Time Points leaderboard. which deserves a mention at the very least. For reference, Kobe’s first four seasons netted him 4,240 Points, Dirk’s left him with 5,383; and Malone and Jordan played their rookie seasons at age 22. That’s the 3rd, 6th, 2nd, and 4th All-Time scoring leaders respectively, and Booker is absolutely in range to have a huge head start on a point total if he’s a legit 25 a game scorer moving forward.
Karl Anthony Towns Why He’s Notable: KAT also falls in the prior mentioned group of sub-22 year olds with a 25 ppg season, doing so last year before the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. He has a couple of legs up on Booker when looking at their production to date: KAT has so far not missed a game in his career, his rookie season was a great deal more impressive, and his comical efficiency. He’s already sitting at 5,307 Points through his first three seasons, averaging 21.6 ppg at age 22 with these shooting percentages: 54/39/84 & eFG/TS of 58/62. Basically off to a strong enough start at a young enough age that the sky's the limit scoring wise, as well as nearly 12 boards a game for his first three seasons and a solid collection of metrics. It seems like his stock has taken a hit the past year, especially last few weeks, but all he’s shown so far in his career is machine-like levels of durability and production. His full potential could be held back by playing next to multiple high usage perimeter guys, though on the flip side maybe that will be offset by increased early playoff success.
That's That
From my research I'd say there's at least 5 of the 25 best players ever in the league now, playing at a high level, and possibly as many as 11. Safe bet seems like 8 seems, it's hard to imagine at least one of BookeRuss/KAT/Simmons as well as Davis and Giannis busting hard enough to knock them off the path they've set for themselves and once the Lebron era finishes up the standard will be raised a good amount.
Chesterfield, Scunthorpe, Rochdale and Fleetwood went up from League Two last time round. Here are the week-by-week fixtures for the Sky Bet League Two for season 2014-2015. League Two Final. Sunday 26 th May 2019. 15.00. League One Final. Monday 27 th May 2019. 15.00. Championship Final Sky Bet EFL 2020/21. Transfer window opens - Monday 27 July 2020; Transfer windown closes - Monday 5 October 2020 (international transfers) / Friday 16 October 2020 (domestic transfers) *fixture dates are subject to change League One and League Two have voted to end their respective seasons - but what does that mean for the play-offs? Express Sport looks at who is involved, how it will work and when the games will ... The Sky Bet EFL play-offs are here and we have all the key information for the semi-finals and finals, including dates and fixtures, for Championship, League One and League Two. Performance dates and tickets for SKY BET LEAGUE 2 PLAY-OFF FINAL - BURTON The Football League has confirmed the dates of the Sky Bet League 2 play-off semi-finals and final. The semi-final first legs will take place on Saturday, May 9 (7.45pm) and Sunday, May 10 (6.35pm). League Two play-offs 2020: Dates, kick-off times, venues, live on Sky Sports. Sky Sports to broadcast Sky Bet League Two play-offs from June 18; coverage of all 15 EFL play-off games across the ... Sky Bet Championship play-offs: The Race for the Premier League 19:34 · WED May 09, 2018 Take a look at the full schedule for the Sky Bet EFL play-offs along with key stats and match odds. The Sky website has dates and times for the Football League play-offs. At the moment, though, it doesn't say which games will be League One and which games will be League Two. Thu 3 Championship Play-Off Semi-Final, 1st Leg (7.45pm) Fri 4 Championship Play-Off Semi-Final, 1st Leg (7.45pm)
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