Full disclosure: I'm not a Trump fan in the slightest. I don't spend an extraordinary amount of time talking about that fact on Reddit; but some of my comments do indeed express this view, either by way of serious commentary or lighthearted joking.
At the same time, I take impartial analysis and fact checking extremely seriously. I always push back against weak and/or unfounded accusations that are made against Trump, as I do for all other political figures — something I've done both on this account and on FactCheckHuman, my dedicated fact checking account.
Usually, my fact checks don't run much more than a couple of paragraphs. In some instances, though, I've done ultra–deep dives into an issue. This current post can certainly be considered one of these. As with any other fact check, the ultimate aim of these write-ups is simply to determine what is or isn't true; or what is or isn't likely to be true.
At the same time, this post also genuinely intends to persuade people of the speciousness and toxicity of the Trump campaign's current claims about voter fraud. To tell the truth, I kind of approached it as a synthesis of conversations I've been having with my conservative friends and family members, who are really on board with the Trump position on election integrity.
In any case, not everything is as simple as finding the facts and evidence, and letting these speak for themselves. Ideally that's how we want things to be; but often times there are a number of ambiguities that prevent this from being done so easily, in terms of varying interpretations that the evidence permits. In these instances, we basically have to make a reasonable judgment call about what's likely to be the case: educated guesses that try to fill in some of the gaps in the evidence.
Even here, though, I try to be similarly rigorous, and take a lead from what I call critical parsimony. In short, this tries to find the most "normal" and least sensational/conspiratorial explanation for something, while also bearing in mind some of the complexities and anomalies that might complicate the issue. Often times, these two different or seemingly contradictory aspects come together when we encounter some event or phenomenon that superficially seems exceptional and counterintuitive, but which turns out to be much less unusual than it appears to be. In short, this allows extraordinary events to be, well, rare.
In line with that last point, one of the most insightful things we can look at is events and situations, usually from the recent past, which can help contextualize and elucidate various things that have taken place in the current election — and things which have taken place in terms of people's reaction to this. So things like looking back to the 2016 or 2012 election can be crucial here, or other historical events that can give precedent for what's happening in 2020, and shed light on it.
I suppose the most obvious point of departure for this post is what we might describe as a main "narrative" that Donald Trump and the Trump campaign and its supporters have advanced in response to the election itself: that the election has been unusually fraught with irregularities and duplicitous/fraudulent intentions. Responsibility for these irregularities have almost always been placed at the feet of Democrats, and is clearly taken to represent an effort on Democrats' part to steal the election.
Obviously, I think a lot of Trump supporters and conservatives have accepted this narrative more or less at face value. Even before getting into some of the actual specifics of the claims of voter fraud, though, one thing that I've called attention to from the outset is how we might first consider the initial motivations behind the narrative itself a bit more critically, and how it comes together in the first place.
Not to get too philosophical or anything, but it's worth pointing out that whenever we have a political "narrative" like this, it's somewhat of an artificial construct. A bunch of different phenomena or allegations are brought together and crammed into one explanatory framework. Nuance or ambiguity becomes something secondary to promoting the narrative. Far too often, the cast is full of stereotyped protagonists and antagonists, divided along party lines.
Further, it's important not to lose sight of everything that's paved the way for such a bitter partisan narrative to emerge in the first place. The electoral process itself probably never been neutral affair, and is still intensely partisan in numerous aspects — from the emergence of the Electoral College itself, to the crafting and enforcing of state voting laws and guidelines. At lower levels, issues of gerrymandering have been a serious problem; and at all levels, different political parties have fought in the courts to try to influence voter eligibility and voter turnout in their own favor.
In tandem with this, beyond the judiciary itself, political parties also wage many of these same battles in the court of public opinion.
In this current instance, the overarching narrative in question — of Democrat attempts to unlawfully steal the election — indeed seems to target public opinion above all else. And it far predates the 2020 election itself, too. Even before running in 2015, Trump had previously suggested that President Obama's original election was assisted by fraudulent votes being cast by dead voters. During the 2016 Iowa caucus, Trump accused Ted Cruz and his campaign of having committed fraud, and called for a "new election" or that the results be nullified; and he leveled a similar accusation against Marco Rubio in the Florida primary, too.
In August of 2016, regarding the general election, Trump claimed that "[t]he only way we can lose . . . Pennsylvania . . . is if cheating goes on." He continued to frequent challenge the integrity of the election leading up to November; and even after his victory, he stated that he "won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally" — implying there had been upwards of 3 million "illegal" votes. Very closely echoing what we'd see in 2020, after the 2018 Florida Senatorial election, Trump stated that "[t]he Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!"
In May and June 2020, Trump began ramping up claims that fraudulent mail-in ballots would be printed in vast droves, both by domestic entities and "maybe by the millions by foreign powers." Again, this would be insisted on time and time again; and finally, echoing his sentiments in late November 2016, on November 7 Trump declared that "I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!", and later reiterating that he received 71,000,000 "legal" votes. (An exhaustive catalogue of Trump's allegations re: voter fraud can be found here.)
It's hard to deny that Trump's public-facing view has always proposed voter fraud and irregularities as ubiquitous things affecting a large number of elections. But it's precisely the one-sidedness of his seeing monsters in every shadow here that points toward another explanation. Trump's accusatory or even paranoid worldview can be seen as something like a microcosm reflecting a much wider trend in historical political rhetoric around elections.
Even when Trump is taken out of the picture altogether, the propagandistic function of allegations of election fraud has still been frequently noted by a number of scholars and historians who specialize in election studies. In a 2007 paper for the Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU School of Law, for example, American constitutional law scholar Justin Levitt calls attention to the emotional resonance that claims of voter fraud can elicit — and also notes its prevalence because of this:

Allegations of election-related fraud make for enticing press. Voter fraud, in particular, has the feel of a bank heist caper: roundly condemned but technically fascinating, and sufficiently lurid to grab and hold headlines. Perhaps because these stories are dramatic, voter fraud makes a popular scapegoat. In the aftermath of a close election, losing candidates are often quick to blame voter fraud for the results, and legislators cite voter fraud as justification for various new restrictions on the exercise of the franchise. ("The Truth About Voter Fraud," abstract)

Similarly, Raymond Gastil, writing in an article in the journal Studies In Comparative International Development in 1990, noted that

in many new or transitional countries, it is standard practice for the opposition to point out before the election how the government will "steal" the election. If the opposition loses, it will then make strenuous claims that the election was stolen. Thus the ARENA party in El Salvador has claimed fraud in each of the several elections in the 1980s; most recently it won the election and yet claimed that it was robbed of the greater win to which it was entitled. Claims and counterclaims of this nature are seldom subject to verification, even for those on the ground.

Although the U.S. obviously isn't a new or transitional country, it's impossible not to see close parallels to the accusations of Trump here — especially the similarity between the claim of having been "robbed of the greater win to which it was entitled" and Trump sweetening his electoral win by insisting that he won the popular vote, too, so long as "illegal" votes are deducted from the tally.
But when these claims are put to the test, in actuality, scholarly studies have long demonstrated that the prevalence of true voter fraud in general in U.S. elections is minuscule. A Brennan Center for Justice special report on voter fraud compiles and links to many if not most major studies on voter fraud in the U.S., concluding that together these studies paint a clear picture that voter fraud "very rarely happens." (See also my Endnote for more on this.)
So, statistics paints a much different picture than political rhetoric would have us believe.
If the bogeyman here is more of a phantasm than anything, however, it's still a powerful tool for influencing electorates: "voter fraud and voter suppression allegations are strongly used as a mobilization tool by parties during significant elections (Hasen, 2012; Levitt, 2007)." (This quote is taken from Fogarty, Kimball and Kosnik's article "The Media, Voter Fraud, and the U.S. 2012 Elections," published in the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. This article is especially worth reading to get a bit more background about some of the things that set the stage for the 2016 and 2020 elections and their rhetoric.)
One last thing: Population growth and other factors have led to a vastly increased number of voters over the past couple of decades. In 2000, just a little over 100 million people voted, while in the current election this number went up to 130 million. Further, the transition to electronic voting and the use of tabulating machines has increased significantly during this time, too.
Because of these things — all further complicated by COVID this year — both statistics and common wisdom alone should lead us to expect a large number of voting irregularities. But it's also important not to conflate irregularities with voter fraud. Irregularities are simply errors, that don't necessarily require bad human intentions at all. However, with realpolitik at its ugly peak in the election cycle, this offers an opportunity for political pundits to read deliberate ill intentions into these incidents, whether by innuendo or explicit accusation. But it should also be kept in mind that if irregularities are unintentional, and if political affiliation in the U.S. is split roughly equally, then these irregularities should also affect the two political parties roughly equally; probably in similar proportions.
Finally, the increasing partisan divide between media outlets, along with their selective coverage, probably makes it easy to overlook (or perhaps forget) the great number of lawsuits routinely filed by both Democratic and Republican attorneys, both in the lead-up to the election and in the wake of its inevitable irregularities: efforts to block or secure votes from voting populations likely to favor one or the other of the two parties. It should be clear here, then, that an overemphasis on irregularities and claims and fraud are often treated as rhetorical and legal tools in service of political self-interests.
With all these things considered — and again, even if we set the political situation in 2020 aside, along with some of the specific claims of voter fraud that are currently being made — this should still give us ample reason to rethink how accusations of voter fraud function more broadly: what's in it for those making these accusations, politically speaking; how these claimants often see little use for factual accuracy or measured analysis here; and how this perpetuates toxic discourse and bad-faith assumptions.
Claims of Election Irregularities and Fraud in 2020: A Catalogue and Commentary
So this second part of the post is going to be a sort of compendium of a lot of the major allegations of voting irregularities and voter fraud that have been circulating, followed by a critical analysis of these. While some of these irregularities are clearly broad and would affect both political parties, I'm pretty sure that almost every one of these claims has circulated widely in conservative and/or pro-Trump sources; and most have been interpreted as a partisan attack on election integrity. I'm sure that there have been other incidents or alleged incidents that have circulated on the left; but this post is already extremely long and took quite a while to write, and I don't want to make more work for myself.
I'll probably be updating this in the days to come, as more info on various things comes out.
Finally, as a sort of transition point between my probably-far-too-long prologue and the catalogue, I think it can be very instructive to take a look at a compendium of voting irregularities in 2016 — to help get some additional context and perspective for how similar issues can and did surface in the 2020 election.
Claim: It's suspicious how additional Biden votes have kept magically appearing, long after election day, pushing his total over Trump's prior total.
Response: I've put this in the initial position because it seems to be one of the most common observations of accusations: it was one of the first that Trump made, and which he continued to repeat. But among all the different accusations here, this has one of the most mundane explanations.
Prior to the election itself, and noting various state laws pertaining to the tabulation of mail-in votes, various commentators called attention to a likely phenomenon of delayed results for mail-in ballots — which have skewed heavily Democrat. Dave Wassermann noted, for example, that

in northern battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin . . . officials are not permitted to begin processing mail ballots until the day of the election (or, in Michigan's case, the day before). In those states, a "red mirage" of Trump-heavy Election Day votes could linger until larger metro counties report huge tranches of early ballots later in the evening.

(As for mail-in votes skewing highly Democrat, this also has mundane explanations. For reasons that are less than clear, on numerous occasions Trump strongly discouraged his supporters from voting by mail. Unfortunately I don't have the room to fully get into this, though there's certainly some interesting/surprising data about just how overwhelmingly blue mail-in voting skewed even in a number of red strongholds.)
Further, sometimes this claim has appeared in the bit more specific iteration, suggesting that it wasn't just suspicious how Biden votes kept coming in to counteract Trump's tally, but also how precisely Biden's total crept past Trump — as if it was known exactly how many votes Biden needed to just barely scrape past him. But this also has a deceptively simple explanation: the extremely slim margin of victory for Biden in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania basically mirrored the same ultra-slim margin of victory for Trump in these same states in 2016, but now just the other way around. Honing in on PA, for example, we can also see how Biden just marginally outperformed Clinton in terms of cutting into Trump's lead in many red areas.
Even the 2016 election in Georgia saw a significant blue shift, especially in the Atlanta metropolitan area — which presaged Biden's performance in 2020, also bolstered by the efforts of those like Stacey Abrams to register an enormous number of new GA voters.
Claim: Some counties saw a suspicious or even impossible ratio of votes for Biden.
Response: The most widespread claim of this pertained to Michigan returns as posted by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) in the early morning of November 4. A screenshot of the returns at two different times here appeared to show the DDHQ vote tally for Biden go up by 128,000 votes from the previous update, but with no change at all to Trump's total.
Later that morning, it was clear what had happened: shortly after the original entry error (in Shiawassee County), DDHQ had subtracted the erroneous inflated vote update for Biden — something that obviously required no alteration of the tally for Trump. However, the screenshot that circulated gave the misleading impression that it was an addition of Biden votes, instead of a subtraction. (My original detailed explanation of this can be seen on FactCheckHuman/.)
A similar claim has been made around the same time in the Wisconsin totals. Here a chart is linked, and it's suggested that there was a huge vertical surge of votes for Biden in the hour or so before 6:00 am, but with no change at all in Trump votes. But the explanation here is almost goofy in its simplicity: as seen at other points in the chart, the blue Biden line actually covers the red Trump line at various points. The big vertical Biden vote jump in question is almost certainly simply covering up a smaller vertical jump for Trump, and then continues to obscure it until it ends (otherwise we'd be able to see the horizontal trajectory of the red line). I've lost the original source of this, but I had actually saved another chart which shows the same phenomenon of big vertical leaps, only this time with the red Trump line obscuring the blue Biden line.
Claim: The significantly lower number of total votes for Democratic Senators compared to Biden votes in individual states is indicative of something sketchy — when compared to the much smaller mismatch between Trump/Senator votes.
Response: Several articles — e.g. "Swing States Show Biden Votes Suspiciously Far Exceeding Democrat Down-Ticket Votes" — note that there was a significant difference in the ratio of Trump votes to GOP Senator votes in Michigan and Georgia (nearly an equal number of votes in both), compared with the ratio of Biden votes relative to votes for the Democrat Senator in these states (significantly lower).
But this seems to be part of a wider trend of Democrats failing to pay a similar interest in down-ballot candidates. In the 2016 Georgia election, the ratio difference was significantly more drastic: 2,089,104 votes for Trump and 2,135,806 for Isakson, versus 1,877,963 for Clinton but only 1,599,726 for Barksdale — some 275,000 fewer votes for Barksdale than for Clinton. In Wisconsin, there were nearly 75,000 more votes for Ron Johnson than Trump, but 20,000 fewer for Russ Feingold. In PA in 2016, there were 20,000 fewer votes for the GOP Senator as for Trump, compared to 60,000 fewer for the Democratic Senate candidate than for Clinton. (Surprisingly, I haven't been able to find any commentary on this phenomenon. If anyone knows any, please direct me to it.)
Presumably having tabulated similar data from the other states, Trump attorney Sidney Powell has recently noted that there were 450,000 ballots "in the key states that miraculously only have a mark for Joe Biden on them and no other candidate." But based on what I've noted above, I'd be willing to bet that this isn't truly miraculous. Also, as a fascinating fact, in the 2016 election, 1.75 million (!) voters refrained from voting for a Presidential candidate entirely, only voting down-ballot. And frankly, I find it easier to imagine someone only voting for a Presidential candidate, than only voting down-ballot.
Claim: There have been over 3,000 instances of voter fraud in Nevada, with non-NV residents voting in the NV election.
Response: According to the official Nevada Secretary of State site, "Nevada residents who are students in another state or are otherwise temporarily residing in another state may vote in the 2020 Nevada general election." Similarly, apparently a look at the complete list of 3,000+ voters here turns up a number of overseas military personnel; though when I took a look at that, I didn't really see many. Even further, a fact check of this same claim by PolitiFact also notes that "[p]eople who move within 30 days before an election can cast a vote in their new state, or in their prior state of residence, in-person or via absentee ballot." (In this regard, one of the statements by former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt may also be of interest, which was a bit more specific in noting that "[w]e are also certain there are thousands of people whose votes have been counted who have moved out of Clark County during the pandemic" — emphasis mine.)
Finally, perhaps also worth noting is that there are actually allegations of irregularities in the attainment of information in the first place — at least in the version of the criminal referral to AG William Barr that Trump campaign spokesperson Tim Murtaugh submitted.
Claim: The votes of those in Arizona who filled out a ballot by hand using a Sharpie were/would be invalidated.
Response: Various Arizona county officials have disputed that this would automatically invalidate a vote. That being said, there are indeed reports of tabulating machines rejecting votes after voters used Sharpies and noted a bleed-through of the ink. This finds some additional support from the official Pima County Twitter, where it was written that "[f]elt pens are discouraged because the ink can bleed through." However, another source states that

According to a video Maricopa County published on Oct. 24, Sharpies — at home and at the ballot box — are compatible with their scanners, and were actually the best choice for filling out ballots, due to their fast-drying ink.

Claim Some of the votes of those in Maricopa County, Arizona were rejected due to stray marks or (possibly) ink bleed-through; yet some poll workers seemed unable to help voters remedy this and cast a valid vote, due to their own confusion about how the tabulating machines worked.
Response: This is the subject of a lawsuit by the Trump campaign and RNC, etc.; and from a cursory read of the complaint, it seems to be well-founded. I have no clue what the remedy for this would be, though.
Claim: Poll workers have seen brazenly filling out ballots themselves.
Response: Several PolitiFact fact checks (1, 2) have already covered this. In short, it's standard operating procedure for the voting choices of damaged ballots to be transferred/transcribed onto a new, non-damaged ballot. This can even happen on a massive scale, as this report on the 2012 Florida election notes:

During the election, the county’s ballot printer sent out around 60,000 absentee ballots with a typo that could not be read by the county’s tabulation machines. Because of this mistake, county workers had to copy about 35,000 of the votes by hand onto new ballots.

This also intersects with Arizona's SharpieGate slightly: one fact check re: SharpieGate noted that

According to the state's elections procedures manual, if a felt-tip pen mark does bleed through, the ballot will likely get sent for duplication. An election worker will fill out a new ballot using the voter's choices that will be read properly by tabulation machines.

I'm not sure what measures are in place to ensure that the poll workers don't switch the votes in these instances (besides any poll observers who could see this); but in any case, the "risk" of one's vote being switched seems to be equal for Democrat and Republican voters — something that was also noted by the Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (Republican).
In any case, as for more on spoiled ballots: a Project Veritas article (which I can't link due to a Reddit-wide ban) claims that its journalists had found 8 to 10 spoiled ballots in Quakertown, PA. I'm mentioning this here because I had been sort of curious what's supposed to be done with spoiled ballots; and apparently, as the article notes, "Pennsylvania law requires spoiled ballots to be held for 22 months after an election." I know a 22 months retention for some election materials is indeed found in federal law, though I haven't seen anything else that specifies what's to be done with spoiled ballots.
Claim(s): Donald Trump and others shared reports that there had been some sort of unspecified reporting error in a batch of votes in Fulton County, GA. Later it was stated in ambiguous language on ABC7's Twitter account that this reporting error "has taken @JoeBiden's lead in Georgia from 4,000 votes to 7,000 votes." This was interpreted by many to mean that the (correction of this) error was actually in Biden's favor.
Response: What actually appears to have happened is that the reporting error pertained to votes within the batch that originally had given Biden a 3,000 vote lead — but it wasn't that there were actually 3,000 votes that were mistabulated. The true number of affected votes within the batch appears to have been 342; and there's actually no information as to what the Biden/Trump split here was.
Claim: Glitches in voting machine software should cause things like crashes, and not the sort of vote switching that's been reported.
Response: Due to the complicated nature of some of the tabulation errors, etc., news reports have sometimes mistakenly ascribed these to software glitches — when later, more accurate info comes out which gives other causes. For example, a Detroit Free Press article originally suggested that the results of a local race in Oakland County, MI had been overturned when it was discovered that a "computer error" or "technical glitch" had accidentally given votes to the Democratic candidate, and not the Republican one.
But an article in the NYTimes from yesterday actually reiterates how this and several other reported errors actually have human error as the primary or sole cause here. Re: that local election in Oakland County, it notes that

County election workers had mistakenly counted votes from the city of Rochester Hills, Mich., twice, according to the Michigan Department of State. The workers later spotted the error.

That being said, it's also not exactly true that things like vote-flipping can only be caused by human error. In the section "The Challenge of Aging Machines" in a 2014 Brennan Center report on voting machine risks, for example, this discusses instances of vote-flipping that come from calibration errors caused by touch screens that shift and degrade over time. An NPR article from 2016 makes similar observations, while also reporting on how this led to widespread accusations of these votes instead being deliberately "rigged."
[Edit:] I figured it was worth it to actually expand this section by looking back at incidents prior to 2020 wherein one candidate's votes were mistakenly given to another (and other related phenomena) in initial tallies — whether this was due to human error, machine error, or sometimes both in conjunction.
It's actually somewhat hard to paint a comprehensive picture of previous Election Night reporting errors like this. Those having never made the news in the first place were probably quickly forgotten. Perhaps there's a trove of early reports of these left to be (re)discovered on Twitter; but this can only take us back so far, considering its fairly recent rise in popularity. However, we can still find records of these in various publications. This internal report by CBS News on its Election Night 2000 coverage, discussing the reporting of votes from various FL counties, for examples, notes that

Vote reports from Volusia County severely understated Gore’s actual total when a faulty computer memory card reported votes that were off by thousands. That precinct, Number 216, subtracted more than 16,000 votes from Gore’s total and added votes to Bush’s total. In addition, an apparent reporting error in Brevard County reduced Gore’s total by an additional 4,000 votes.

It also briefly notes other errors, too, such as

In Massachusetts, 30,000 votes were left uncounted in 51 precincts because of human error.
In New Mexico, election officials thought that a handwritten notation about absentee votes from one precinct indicated 120 votes for Gore, when the actual number was 620.

An article in the Denver Post re: the 2016 Colorado primary notes "a reporting error on caucus night":

The problem . . . occurred when a volunteer at Byers Middle School in Denver punched the wrong vote tallies from 10 precincts into the party’s interactive voice response system for the presidential preference poll.
The state party’s website reported March 1 that Sanders won 14,624 votes, or 54 percent, in Denver County and Clinton took 12,097 votes, or 45 percent.
But the corrected numbers for Denver County give Sanders 15,194 votes, or 56.5 percent, and Clinton with 11,527, or 43 percent, according to official party results.

A Brennan Center report on voting machine failures includes a very long list of human and machine errors in various U.S. elections. Among some of the most significant of those listed include the 2002 Alabama gubernatorial election, where

The Birmingham News and the New York Times reported that an error in the way officials downloaded vote data from a computer cartridge led to an incorrect initial tally of votes in the gubernatorial election. The initial tally of the votes showed that the Democratic incumbent had received 19,070 votes in Baldwin County. A reexamination of the vote tallies showed that the incumbent received only 12,736 votes, which gave the victory to his Republican challenger.

Further, in the 2004 Presidential and congressional elections,

local officials discovered an error in eight Diebold scanners that had been used on 208,446 absentee ballots. According to the North County Times, votes were miscounted in both the Democratic presidential primary race and the primary race for the Republican U.S. Senate seat. A recount was conducted, revealing that “2,821 absentee ballots cast for Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry were actually counted for Dick Gephardt.” Similarly, in the Senate race, 68 votes for one candidate and six votes for another were credited to a third candidate. The Union Tribune reported that multiple scanners caused the error, feeding data into the tabulation system at once.

An article on irregularities in the 2018 midterms in GA begins

To find a clue about what might have gone wrong with Georgia’s election last fall, look no further than voting machine No. 3 at the Winterville Train Depot outside Athens.
On machine No. 3, Republicans won every race. On each of the other six machines in that precinct, Democrats won every race.

Claim: A very serious instance of (electronic) vote-flipping has taken place in Antrim County, MI, where 6,000 Trump votes were accidentally flipped to Biden. This has been one of the most widely reported instances recently, usually accompanied by a note that 47 other counties in Michigan used the same faulty software as that responsible for the vote-flipping in Antrim County.
Response: More accurately, the actual votes themselves weren't switched at all here; and for that matter, the error seems to have been more human than electronic. What appears to have happened is that a county clerk hadn't manually updated the software which was responsible for compiling the votes for reporting; and consequently, "even though the tabulators counted all the ballots correctly, those accurate results were not combined properly when the clerk reported unofficial results."
[Edit:] A while after writing this, by chance I came across some more info which either sheds more light on all this, or makes the whole thing a bit more complicated (or both). According to this AP article, the President of the company who made the voting software explained that "a minor correction was made to a ballot that caused additional compounding changes to how the software totals and presented the data"; and an article in the NYTimes similarly states that election security experts and state officials concluded "that an election worker had configured ballot scanners and reporting systems with slightly different versions of the ballot."
Claim: There was suspicious activity around items and containers brought into a Detroit absentee ballot counting center in the early hours of November 4, after the deadline for these to arrive.
Response: This claim — including video footage and pictures — was shared by Eric Trump; and in it it's been intimated that these were fraudulent absentee ballots. However, the man in the video footage has been identified as an employee of Detroit's ABC affiliate WXYZ; and the items in question were his camera equipment.
I'm right at the character limit here — continuing in a comment below.

Thank you to everyone who participated in this year's contest! There were a lot of great books released last year and I think all of them were nominated in our Best of 2020 contest. Here are the winners for the Best Books of 2020!
Just a quick note regarding the voting. We've locked the individual voting threads but that doesn't stop people from upvoting/downvoting so if you check them the upvotes won't necessarily match up with these winners depending on when you look. But, the results announced here do match what the results were at the time the threads were locked.

Best Debut of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	My Dark Vanessa	Kate Elizabeth Russell	Exploring the psychological dynamics of the relationship between a precocious yet naïve teenage girl and her magnetic and manipulative teacher. Alternating between Vanessa’s present and her past, My Dark Vanessa juxtaposes memory and trauma with the breathless excitement of a teenage girl discovering the power her own body can wield. Thought-provoking and impossible to put down, this is a masterful portrayal of troubled adolescence and its repercussions that raises vital questions about agency, consent, complicity, and victimhood.	warpedlucy
1st Runner-Up	Shuggie Bain	Douglas Stuart	Shuggie Bain is the unforgettable story of young Hugh "Shuggie" Bain, a sweet and lonely boy who spends his 1980s childhood in run-down public housing in Glasgow, Scotland. Thatcher's policies have put husbands and sons out of work, and the city's notorious drugs epidemic is waiting in the wings. Shuggie's mother Agnes walks a wayward path: she is Shuggie's guiding light but a burden for him and his siblings. A heartbreaking story of addiction, sexuality, and love, Shuggie Bain is an epic portrayal of a working-class family that is rarely seen in fiction.	nursingasmallmadhope
2nd Runner-Up	Luster	Raven Leilani	Luster sees a young black woman figuring her way into life as an artist and into love in this darkly comic novel. She meets Eric, a digital archivist with a family in New Jersey, including an autopsist wife who has agreed to an open marriage. In this world of contemporary sexual manners and racial politics, Edie finds herself unemployed and living with Eric. She becomes hesitant friend to his wife and a de facto role model to his adopted daughter. Edie is the only black woman young Akila may know.	lentixular

Best Literary Fiction of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	The Vanishing Half	Brit Bennett	The Vignes twin sisters will always be identical. But after growing up together in a small, southern black community and running away at age sixteen, it's not just the shape of their daily lives that is different as adults, it's everything: their families, their communities, their racial identities. Many years later, one sister lives with her black daughter in the same southern town she once tried to escape. The other secretly passes for white, and her white husband knows nothing of her past. Still, even separated by so many miles and just as many lies, the fates of the twins remain intertwined. What will happen to the next generation, when their own daughters' storylines intersect? Weaving together multiple strands and generations of this family, from the Deep South to California, from the 1950s to the 1990s, Brit Bennett produces a story that is at once a riveting, emotional family story and a brilliant exploration of the American history of passing.	candlesandpretense
1st Runner-Up	Piranesi	Susanna Clarke	Piranesi's house is no ordinary building: its rooms are infinite, its corridors endless, its walls are lined with thousands upon thousands of statues, each one different from all the others. Within the labyrinth of halls an ocean is imprisoned; waves thunder up staircases, rooms are flooded in an instant. But Piranesi is not afraid; he understands the tides as he understands the pattern of the labyrinth itself. He lives to explore the house. There is one other person in the house—a man called The Other, who visits Piranesi twice a week and asks for help with research into A Great and Secret Knowledge. But as Piranesi explores, evidence emerges of another person, and a terrible truth begins to unravel, revealing a world beyond the one Piranesi has always known.	dampdrizzlynovember
2nd Runner-Up	Transcendent Kingdom	Yaa Gyasi	Gifty is a fifth-year candidate in neuroscience at Stanford School of Medicine studying reward-seeking behavior in mice and the neural circuits of depression and addiction. Her brother, Nana, was a gifted high school athlete who died of a heroin overdose after a knee injury left him hooked on OxyContin. Her suicidal mother is living in her bed. Gifty is determined to discover the scientific basis for the suffering she sees all around her. But even as she turns to the hard sciences to unlock the mystery of her family's loss, she finds herself hungering for her childhood faith and grappling with the evangelical church in which she was raised, whose promise of salvation remains as tantalizing as it is elusive.	warpedlucy

Best Romance of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	Beach Read	Emily Henry	Augustus Everett is an acclaimed author of literary fiction. January Andrews writes bestselling romance. When she pens a happily ever after, he kills off his entire cast. They're polar opposites. In fact, the only thing they have in common is that for the next three months, they're living in neighboring beach houses, broke, and bogged down with writer's block. Until, one hazy evening, one thing leads to another and they strike a deal designed to force them out of their creative ruts: Augustus will spend the summer writing something happy, and January will pen the next Great American Novel. She'll take him on field trips worthy of any rom-com montage, and he'll take her to interview surviving members of a backwoods death cult (obviously). Everyone will finish a book and no one will fall in love. Really.	assholeinwonderland
1st Runner-Up	Take a Hint, Dani Brown	Talia Hilbert	Danika Brown knows what she wants: professional success, academic renown, and an occasional roll in the hay to relieve all that career-driven tension. But romance? Been there, done that, burned the T-shirt. Romantic partners, whatever their gender, are a distraction at best and a drain at worst. So Dani asks the universe for the perfect friend-with-benefits—someone who knows the score and knows their way around the bedroom. When brooding security guard Zafir Ansari rescues Dani from a workplace fire drill gone wrong, it’s an obvious sign: PhD student Dani and ex-rugby player Zaf are destined to sleep together. But before she can explain that fact, a video of the heroic rescue goes viral. Now half the internet is shipping #DrRugbae—and Zaf is begging Dani to play along. Turns out, his sports charity for kids could really use the publicity. Lying to help children? Who on earth would refuse? Dani’s plan is simple: fake a relationship in public, seduce Zaf behind the scenes. The trouble is, grumpy Zaf’s secretly a hopeless romantic—and he’s determined to corrupt Dani’s stone-cold realism. Before long, he’s tackling her fears into the dirt. But the former sports star has issues of his own, and the walls around his heart are as thick as his... um, thighs.	Klutzy_While_3950
2nd Runnder-Up	You Had Me at Hola	Alexis Daria	After a messy public breakup, soap opera darling Jasmine Lin Rodriguez finds her face splashed across the tabloids. When she returns to her hometown of New York City to film the starring role in a bilingual romantic comedy for the number one streaming service in the country, Jasmine figures her new “Leading Lady Plan” should be easy enough to follow. After his last telenovela character was killed off, Ashton is worried his career is dead as well. Joining this new cast as a last-minute addition will give him the chance to show off his acting chops to American audiences and ping the radar of Hollywood casting agents. With their careers on the line, Jasmine and Ashton agree to rehearse in private. But rehearsal leads to kissing, and kissing leads to a behind-the-scenes romance worthy of a soap opera. While their on-screen performance improves, the media spotlight on Jasmine soon threatens to destroy her new image and expose Ashton’s most closely guarded secret.	chchchcher

Best Mystery or Thriller of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner TIED	Mexican Gothic	Silvia Moreno-Garcia	After receiving a frantic letter from her newly-wed cousin begging for someone to save her from a mysterious doom, Noemí Taboada heads to High Place, a distant house in the Mexican countryside. She’s not sure what she will find—her cousin’s husband, a handsome Englishman, is a stranger, and Noemí knows little about the region. Her only ally in this inhospitable abode is the family’s youngest son. Shy and gentle, he seems to want to help Noemí, but might also be hiding dark knowledge of his family’s past. For there are many secrets behind the walls of High Place. The family’s once colossal wealth and faded mining empire kept them from prying eyes, but as Noemí digs deeper she unearths stories of violence and madness. And Noemí, mesmerized by the terrifying yet seductive world of High Place, may soon find it impossible to ever leave this enigmatic house behind.	CrazyCatLadyForLife
Winner TIED	The Guest List	Lucy Foley	On an island off the coast of Ireland, guests gather to celebrate two people joining their lives together as one. The groom: handsome and charming, a rising television star. The bride: smart and ambitious, a magazine publisher. It’s a wedding for a magazine, or for a celebrity: the designer dress, the remote location, the luxe party favors, the boutique whiskey. The cell phone service may be spotty and the waves may be rough, but every detail has been expertly planned and will be expertly executed. But perfection is for plans, and people are all too human. As the champagne is popped and the festivities begin, resentments and petty jealousies begin to mingle with the reminiscences and well wishes. The groomsmen begin the drinking game from their school days. The bridesmaid not-so-accidentally ruins her dress. The bride’s oldest (male) friend gives an uncomfortably caring toast. And then someone turns up dead. Who didn’t wish the happy couple well? And perhaps more important, why?	book0saurus
1st Runner-Up	The Thursday Murder Club	Richard Osman	In a peaceful retirement village, four unlikely friends meet weekly in the Jigsaw Room to discuss unsolved crimes; together they call themselves The Thursday Murder Club. Elizabeth, Joyce, Ibrahim and Ron might be pushing eighty but they still have a few tricks up their sleeves. When a local developer is found dead with a mysterious photograph left next to the body, the Thursday Murder Club suddenly find themselves in the middle of their first live case. As the bodies begin to pile up, can our unorthodox but brilliant gang catch the killer, before it’s too late?	anchgu739

Best Short Story Collection of 2020

Place	Title	Editors	Description	Nominated
Winner	The Fight of the Century	Michael Chabon and Ayelet Walden	The American Civil Liberties Union began as a small group of idealists and visionaries, including Helen Keller and Jane Addams. A century after its founding, the ACLU remains the nation’s premier defender of the rights and freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution. In collaboration with the ACLU, prize-winning authors Michael Chabon and Ayelet Waldman have curated an anthology of essays about landmark cases in the ACLU’s 100-year history. In Fight of the Century, bestselling and award-winning authors present unique literary takes on historic decisions like Brown v. Board of Education, the Scopes trial, Roe v. Wade, and more. Contributors include Geraldine Brooks, Michael Cunningham, Jennifer Egan, Dave Eggers, Louise Erdrich, Neil Gaiman, Lauren Groff, Marlon James, Viet Thanh Nguyen, Morgan Parker, Ann Patchett, Salman Rushdie, George Saunders, Elizabeth Strout, Jesmyn Ward, Meg Wolitzer, and more.	sbonkers

Best Graphic Novel of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	Solutions and Other Problems	Allie Brosch	Solutions and Other Problems includes humorous stories from Allie Brosh’s childhood; the adventures of her very bad animals; merciless dissection of her own character flaws; incisive essays on grief, loneliness, and powerlessness; as well as reflections on the absurdity of modern life.	lydiardbell
1st Runner-Up	The Loneliness of the Long-Distance Cartoonist	Adrian Tomine	What happens when a childhood hobby turns into a lifelong career? The Loneliness of the Long-Distance Cartoonist, Adrian Tomine's funniest and most revealing foray into autobiography, offers an array of unexpected answers. When a sudden medical incident lands Tomine in the emergency room, he begins to question if it was really all worthwhile: despite the accolades, awards, and opportunities of a seemingly charmed career, it's the gaffes, humiliations, slights, and insults he's experienced (or caused) within the industry that loom largest in his memory. But as those memories are delineated in excruciatingly hilarious detail, a different, parallel narrative plays out in the background. In between chaotic book tours, disastrous interviews, and difficult interactions with other artists, life happens: Tomine fumbles his way into marriage, parenthood, and an indisputably fulfilling existence. While mining his conflicted relationship with comics and comics culture, Tomine illustrates the amusing absurdities of life and how we choose to spend our time.	Groodfeets

Best YA of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	A Deadly Education	Naomi Novak	There are no teachers, no holidays, and no friendships, save strategic ones. Survival is more important than any letter grade, for the school won’t allow its students to leave until they graduate… or die! The rules are deceptively simple: Don’t walk the halls alone. And beware of the monsters who lurk everywhere. El is uniquely prepared for the school’s dangers. She may be without allies, but she possesses a dark power strong enough to level mountains and wipe out millions. It would be easy enough for El to defeat the monsters that prowl the school. The problem? Her powerful dark magic might also kill all the other students.	book0saurus
1st Runner-Up	The House in the Cerulean Sea	TJ Klune	Linus Baker leads a quiet, solitary life. At forty, he lives in a tiny house with a devious cat and his old records. As a Case Worker at the Department in Charge Of Magical Youth, he spends his days overseeing the well-being of children in government-sanctioned orphanages. When Linus is unexpectedly summoned by Extremely Upper Management he's given a curious and highly classified assignment: travel to Marsyas Island Orphanage, where six dangerous children reside: a gnome, a sprite, a wyvern, an unidentifiable green blob, a were-Pomeranian, and the Antichrist. Linus must set aside his fears and determine whether or not they’re likely to bring about the end of days. But the children aren’t the only secret the island keeps. Their caretaker is the charming and enigmatic Arthur Parnassus, who will do anything to keep his wards safe. As Arthur and Linus grow closer, long-held secrets are exposed, and Linus must make a choice: destroy a home or watch the world burn.	DunderMifflinthisisD
2nd Runner-Up	Cemetery Boys	Aiden Thomas	When his traditional Latinx family has problems accepting his true gender, Yadriel becomes determined to prove himself a real brujo. With the help of his cousin and best friend Maritza, he performs the ritual himself, and then sets out to find the ghost of his murdered cousin and set it free. However, the ghost he summons is actually Julian Diaz, the school's resident bad boy, and Julian is not about to go quietly into death. He's determined to find out what happened and tie off some loose ends before he leaves. Left with no choice, Yadriel agrees to help Julian, so that they can both get what they want. But the longer Yadriel spends with Julian, the less he wants to let him leave.	wenises3

Best Sci-Fi of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	Axiom's End	Lindsay Ellis	A well-timed leak has revealed that the US government might have engaged in first contact. Cora Sabino is doing everything she can to avoid the whole mess, since the force driving the controversy is her whistleblower father. Even though Cora hasn’t spoken to him in years, his celebrity has caught the attention of the press, the Internet, the paparazzi, and the government—and with him in hiding, that attention is on her. She neither knows nor cares whether her father’s leaks are a hoax, and wants nothing to do with him—until she learns just how deeply entrenched her family is in the cover-up, and that an extraterrestrial presence has been on Earth for decades. Realizing the extent to which both she and the public have been lied to, she sets out to gather as much information as she can, and finds that the best way for her to uncover the truth is not as a whistleblower, but as an intermediary. The alien presence has been completely uncommunicative until she convinces one of them that she can act as their interpreter, becoming the first and only human vessel of communication. Their otherworldly connection will change everything she thought she knew about being human—and could unleash a force more sinister than she ever imagined.	newenglandredshirt
1st Runner-Up	Network Effect	Martha Wells	You know that feeling when you’re at work, and you’ve had enough of people, and then the boss walks in with yet another job that needs to be done right this second or the world will end, but all you want to do is go home and binge your favorite shows? And you're a sentient murder machine programmed for destruction? Congratulations, you're Murderbot. Come for the pew-pew space battles, stay for the most relatable A.I. you’ll read this century.	pennydrdful
2nd Runnder-Up	The Space Between Worlds	Michaiah Johnson	Multiverse travel is finally possible, but there’s just one catch: No one can visit a world where their counterpart is still alive. Enter Cara, whose parallel selves happen to be exceptionally good at dying—from disease, turf wars, or vendettas they couldn’t outrun. Cara’s life has been cut short on 372 worlds in total. On this Earth, however, Cara has survived. Identified as an outlier and therefore a perfect candidate for multiverse travel, Cara is plucked from the dirt of the wastelands. She works—and shamelessly flirts—with her enticing yet aloof handler, Dell, as the two women collect off-world data for the Eldridge Institute. So long as she can keep her head down and avoid trouble, Cara is on a sure path to citizenship and security. But trouble finds Cara when one of her eight remaining doppelgängers dies under mysterious circumstances, plunging her into a new world with an old secret. What she discovers will connect her past and her future in ways she could have never imagined—and reveal her own role in a plot that endangers not just her world, but the entire multiverse.	OliviaPresteign

Best Fantasy of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	Rhythm of War	Brandon Sanderson	After forming a coalition of human resistance against the enemy invasion, Dalinar Kholin and his Knights Radiant have spent a year fighting a protracted, brutal war. Neither side has gained an advantage, and the threat of a betrayal by Dalinar's crafty ally Taravangian looms over every strategic move. Now, as new technological discoveries by Navani Kholin's scholars begin to change the face of the war, the enemy prepares a bold and dangerous operation. The arms race that follows will challenge the very core of the Radiant ideals, and potentially reveal the secrets of the ancient tower that was once the heart of their strength. At the same time that Kaladin Stormblessed must come to grips with his changing role within the Knights Radiant, his Windrunners face their own problem: As more and more deadly enemy Fused awaken to wage war, no more honorspren are willing to bond with humans to increase the number of Radiants. Adolin and Shallan must lead the coalition’s envoy to the honorspren stronghold of Lasting Integrity and either convince the spren to join the cause against the evil god Odium, or personally face the storm of failure.	Pepe_Silviaa
1st Runner-Up	Piranesi	Susanna Clarke	Piranesi's house is no ordinary building: its rooms are infinite, its corridors endless, its walls are lined with thousands upon thousands of statues, each one different from all the others. Within the labyrinth of halls an ocean is imprisoned; waves thunder up staircases, rooms are flooded in an instant. But Piranesi is not afraid; he understands the tides as he understands the pattern of the labyrinth itself. He lives to explore the house. There is one other person in the house—a man called The Other, who visits Piranesi twice a week and asks for help with research into A Great and Secret Knowledge. But as Piranesi explores, evidence emerges of another person, and a terrible truth begins to unravel, revealing a world beyond the one Piranesi has always known.	warpedlucy
2nd Runnder-Up	The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue	V. E. Schwab	France, 1714: in a moment of desperation, a young woman makes a Faustian bargain to live forever and is cursed to be forgotten by everyone she meets. Thus begins the extraordinary life of Addie LaRue, and a dazzling adventure that will play out across centuries and continents, across history and art, as a young woman learns how far she will go to leave her mark on the world. But everything changes when, after nearly 300 years, Addie stumbles across a young man in a hidden bookstore and he remembers her name.	OliviaPresteign

Best Nonfiction of 2020

Place	Title	Author	Description	Nominated
Winner	Promised Land	Barack Obama	In the stirring, highly anticipated first volume of his presidential memoirs, Barack Obama tells the story of his improbable odyssey from young man searching for his identity to leader of the free world, describing in strikingly personal detail both his political education and the landmark moments of the first term of his historic presidency—a time of dramatic transformation and turmoil. A Promised Land is extraordinarily intimate and introspective—the story of one man’s bet with history, the faith of a community organizer tested on the world stage. Obama is candid about the balancing act of running for office as a Black American, bearing the expectations of a generation buoyed by messages of “hope and change,” and meeting the moral challenges of high-stakes decision-making. This beautifully written and powerful book captures Barack Obama’s conviction that democracy is not a gift from on high but something founded on empathy and common understanding and built together, day by day.	pineapplesf
1st Runner-Up	The Splendid and the Vile: A Saga of Churchill, Family, and Defiance During the Blitz	Erik Larson	On Winston Churchill's first day as prime minister, Adolf Hitler invaded Holland and Belgium. Poland and Czechoslovakia had already fallen, and the Dunkirk evacuation was just two weeks away. For the next twelve months, Hitler would wage a relentless bombing campaign, killing 45,000 Britons. It was up to Churchill to hold his country together and persuade President Franklin Roosevelt that Britain was a worthy ally--and willing to fight to the end. Erik Larson shows how Churchill taught the British people "the art of being fearless." It is a story of political brinkmanship, but it's also an intimate domestic drama, set against the backdrop of Churchill's prime-ministerial country home, Chequers; his wartime retreat, Ditchley, where he and his entourage go when the moon is brightest and the bombing threat is highest; and of course 10 Downing Street in London.	candlesandpretense
2nd Runner-Up	Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents	Isabel Wilkerson	Beyond race, class, or other factors, there is a powerful caste system that influences people’s lives and behavior and the nation’s fate. Linking the caste systems of America, India, and Nazi Germany, Wilkerson explores eight pillars that underlie caste systems across civilizations, including divine will, bloodlines, stigma, and more. Using riveting stories about people—including Martin Luther King, Jr., baseball’s Satchel Paige, a single father and his toddler son, Wilkerson herself, and many others—she shows the ways that the insidious undertow of caste is experienced every day. She documents how the Nazis studied the racial systems in America to plan their out-cast of the Jews; she discusses why the cruel logic of caste requires that there be a bottom rung for those in the middle to measure themselves against; she writes about the surprising health costs of caste, in depression and life expectancy, and the effects of this hierarchy on our culture and politics. Finally, she points forward to ways America can move beyond the artificial and destructive separations of human divisions, toward hope in our common humanity.	mleftpeel

Thank you for everyone who participated in this year's contest and especially thank you for bringing so many great books to our attention so we can add them to our reading lists! If you'd like to see more of the best books of 2020 here are the links to the individual contests:

If you'd like to see our previous contests, you can find them in the suggested reading section of our wiki.

I made a list of every Unus Annus video name. Posting this here because someone wanted to see it and a comment doesn't allow more than 1000 characters.

November 15th - Unus Annus
(note- The Very Start.)

November 15th - Cooking with Sex Toys
(note- 365 Days Left)

November 16th - Purging Our Sins with a Net Pot

November 17th - Hot Dog'd to Death

November 18th - Making Our Own Sensory Deprivation Tank

November 19th - The Good Kind of Cupping

November 20th - The Bad Kind of Cupping

November 21st - The Worst Kind of Cupping

November 22nd - Ethan Will Be Kicked in the Balls

November 23rd - Doing Each Other's Makeup in the Dark

November 24th - Baby Hands Operation

November 25th - Mark and Ethan Summon a Ghost

November 26th - 2 Truths and 1 Lie -- Waxing Edition

November 27th - Poopsie Sparkly Critters (a slime surpise...)

November 28th - Play-Doh Thanksgiving

November 29th - Helium Therapy

November 30th - Drawing Memes From Memory

December 1st - 1 Man 100 Accents

December 2nd - An A.I. Predicts How We're Going to Die

December 3rd - Mark Turns Ethan into a Mummy to Prepare Him for the Great Beyond

December 4th - The Cubby Gummy Challenge

December 5th - We Buy a Professional Hypnosis Video and React To It

December 6th - Mark and Ethan Attempt and Escape Room

December 7th - Ethan Destroys Mark's Van with a Bat

December 8th - There's Still Hope...

December 9th - Ethan Gives Mark a Viking Funeral

December 10th - The Great Meat Mistake

December 11th - Acupuncture Is NOT Painful

December 12th - Floating in a Real Sensory Deprivation Tank

December 13th - Mark Reviews The Impossible Burger But There's a Looming Sense of Impending Doom
(note- Paintball gun)

December 14th - We Made Nude Pictures of Eachother

December 15th - You made Beautiful Music for The Barrel... But Only One Could Win

December 16th - We Had To Drink Each Other's Pee
(note- The first of the Pee Trilogy)

December 17th - Ethan Explores Mark's Haunted Basement

December 18th - Giving Away Our 1,000,000 Subscriber Gold Play Button

December 19th - Ethan's Relaxing and Totally Normal Naul Salon

December 20th - Taped and Afraid

December 21st - What Was The Most Painful Thing We've Ever Endured?

December 22nd - Donating Toys to charity w/ JackSepticEye

December 23rd - Harnessing Our Dogs' Unlimited Energy

December 24th - Santa's Mukbang (Drinking 1 Gallon of Eggnog)

December 25th - Forcibly Turning Mark Into Santa Claus Against His Will

December 26th - Preserving Ourselves In Wax
(note- JackSepticEye was also here!)

December 27th - Beating Inanimate Objects to Death

December 28th - Emotional Pain vs Physical Pain... Which is worse?

December 29th - Duct Tape Crusifixion (Amy, Please Don't Watch This Video)

December 30th - You Blink You Lose

December 31th - 2 Grown Men Attempt the Presidential Fitness Test

January 1st - We Took The Polar Plunge

Janurary 2nd - Hiding Out Sins from Amy's Holy Peepers

January 3rd - We Eat Bugs

January 4th - DIY Bungee Jump (Please don't try this)
(note- Disclamer Song Origin)

January 5th - We Have The BEST Thumbnails on Youtube and No One Can Tell Us Otherwise

January 6th - Who Can Make Themselves Taller?

January 7th - The Sensory Overload Tank

January 8th - Recreating Ourselves as a Cursed Mannequin

January 9th - We Took an IQ Test

January 10th - Ethan Fianlly Becomes a MAN

January 11th - Mark and Ethan Go Casket Shopping

January 12th - We Take a Lie Detector Test to Uncover Our Darkest Sins

January 13th - Learning to Breathe Underwater

January 14th - Fixing Mark's Hole with Ramen but Every Time We Add Glue We Get 5% Closer to God
(note- The hole made in the video where Mark punched a hole in the wall)

January 15th - Mark Steals Ethan's Face

January 16th - You Breathe You Die

January 17th - 2 Absolute Beginners Experience the Dancing Glory that is Salsa

January 18th - DIY Geriatric Simulator

January 19th - This Is How We'll Die...

January 20th - We Cryogenically Freeze Ourselves

January 21st - This is What Being Tased Feels Like

January 22nd - What Happens When A Youtube Channel Dies?

January 23rd - Bad Bad Beans

January 24th - We hired a Real Hypnotherapist to Analyze Our Darkest Dreams

January 25th - We Turned Our Bodies Into Art
(note- painting each other naked)

January 26th - Mark and Ethan Lean About The Human Body

January 27th - Mark Punishes Ethan

January 28th - Strange (and legal) Things You Can Do With Your Body After Death

January 29th - DIY Cheese

January 30th - Hacking The Very Fabric of the Universe

January 31st - Looking at Long Lost Memes

February 1st - Discovering the Secret to Eternal Life

February 2nd - Turning Mark Into an E-Boy

February 3rd - Ethan Redefines Male Beauty

February 4th - Professional Fire Cupping (Going Even Further Beyond)

February 5th - An Extremely Sour, Not-at-all Sour Meal

February 6th - Literally Eating Fire

February 7th - Unregulated Axe Throwing

February 8th - Literally Laying On Broken Glass

February 9th - Making an Indoor Tornado to Flex on Mother Nature

February 10th - Nutball: The Most Dangerous Game
(note- First of the Nutball Trilogy)

February 11th - Becoming a Master of Mime

February 12th - Discussing the Idea of Murdering Each Other bit It's Just a Joke and Definitely Not Serious Haha

February 13th - Are We Already Dead?

February 14th - Our Perfect (and last) Valentine's Day

February 15th - Drunk College Party Simulator

February 16th - 10 Strange Amazon Paroducts Ethan Bought Mark Because He Doesn't Know How To Spend Money Responsibly

February 17th - Chickens Teach Us About Life and Death

February 18th - 3 Big Boys Attempt the Kings Royal Fitness Test

February 19th - Being Attacked by a Fully Trained Bodyguard Dog

February 20th - Learning the Ancient Art of Chinese Archery

February 21st - The Ultimate Trolley Problem

February 22nd - Goat Yoga

February 23rd - Edible Slime was a Mistake

February 24th - Granting Acces Into Heaven's Sweet Gates

February 25th - Long Hair, Do We Dare?
(note- With Marks Quarintine Hair, yes, he did dare)

February 26th - We Wrote a Hit Pop Song in 30 Minutes

February 27th - Mark and Ethan go on a "Drum Date"

February 28th - Blowing Our Souls Into Some Hot Glass

February 29th - Top 10 Worst Things Your Friend Could Possibly Spend Their Money On

March 1st - Nutball Extreme: Taser Edition
(note- Second of the Nutball Trilogy)

March 2nd - REAL Ghost Hunting at an Abandoned Zoo

March 3rd - We Bought a Camera That Can Look Inside Us

March 4th - Becoming the World's Greatest DJs

March 5th - Who Can Teach Their Dog a Trick the Fastest?

March 6th - Middle School Science Experiment Teaches Us About Life and Death
(note- Owl pellets)

March 7th - DIY Chiropractor

March 8th - Mark and Ethan Get Into a Fight

March 9th - The Barrel - Offical Music Video

March 10th - We Got Pepper Sprayed

March 11th - We Give Each Other Tattoos Blindfolded

March 12th - What Does Astrology Say About Our Friendship?

March 13th - Mark and Ethan Get a Full Body Scan to See What Secrets Lay Hidden Within (and learn their body fat)

March 14th - Mark Needs To Rub Ethan and Only His Mom Can Help Him

March 15th - 2 Idiots Get Crushed by 18-Foot Giant Snakes

March 16th - Beer Sauna: Turning a Portable Sauna into a Portable Hell
(note- The video where Pee Sauna was first mentioned)

March 17th - Mark and Ethan Hunt The World's Most Wanted Criminals

March 18th - Unus Annus Carves the Roast Beast

March 19th - 5 Weird Apps That Predicted Our Death

March 20th - We Tried a Labor Pain Simulator

March 21st - Recreating the Miracle of Childbirth

March 22nd - Mark and Ethan Are Now Fathers

March 23rd - We Force James Charles to Run a Military Obstacle Course

March 24th - Desperately Trying To Not Touch Our Faces
(note- Start of Quarintine videos)

March 25th - Reddit 50/50: Two Player Edition

March 26th - Going on an Internet Scavenger Hunt

March 27th - Having an Adventure In VR Chat Becuase We Can't Go Outside

March 28th - Amazon Shopping for the Apocalypse

March 29th - Whom Would Eat Whomst First in a Zombie Apocalypse?

March 30th - Ultimate Youtuber Boxing Showdown

March 31st - The Deep End of Omegle: Risky Boogalo
(note- This video was deleted for an unknown reason)

April 1st - Where in the World is Unus Annus?
(note- Timer was at 401 days)

April 2nd - Mark Builds a Pillow Fort for the Very First Time

April 3rd - Mark's 1 Weird Talent Leaves Ethan Absolutely Speechless

April 4th - Wikifeet: A Tale of 2 Tootsies

April 5th - We Made Every YouTuber Battle in the Hunger Games

April 6th - We Google Each Other to Find Our Darkest Forgotten Sins

April 7th - We Played Mad Libs and Ran It Through Google Translate

April 8th - Mark and Ethan Desperately Try and Nae a Single State in the USA

April 9th - Speed Reading 1000+ WPM To Gain a Complete Understanding of All Human Knowledge

April 10th - What is the Least Viewed Video on YouTube

April 11th - We Found Websites That The World Forgot About

April 12th - The Scariest True Stories on the Internet

April 13th - How to NOT be the Perfect Boyfriend

April 14th - Mark and Ethan Find The Lost City of EL Dorado

April 15th - Mark and Ethan Bet Everything on a Wikipedia Race

April 16th - The Creepiest Videos on Youtube

April 17th - Help Us Break a YouTube World Record
(note- The birth of Norbert Moses. The video was called "Subscribe to Norbert Moses")

April 18th - 2 Men 200 Accents

April 19th - The Illuminati... Do They Really Exist?

April 20th - Using Google Maps to Find the Lost City of Atlantis

April 21st - Reading YOUR Scariest True Stories

April 22nd - Mark and Ethan Take a Personality Test

April 23rd - Will AI Soon Take Over Humanity As We Know It?

April 24th - Running Internet Drama through Google Translate

April 25th - The Secret Unus Annus NO-Touchy-Touchy Hand Shake

April 26th - Two Male Men Judge Female Women on Their Beauty

April 27th - Bored? Press This Button.

April 28th - Don't Go in the Ocean... Ever.

April 29th - We Explore the Most MYSTERIOUS Mysteries of our Wildy Mysterious Mystery Moon of Mysteries

April 30th - We Looked at Unus Annus Memes

May 1st - Is Mark a Masochist?
(note- yes.)

May 2nd - What the Hell is a Pink Trombone?

May 3rd - Professional Fetish Scientists Rank the Best/Worst Fetishes of 2020

May 4th - Mark and Ethan Desperately Attempt to Feel Something

May 5th - An A.I. Generates Out Worst Nightmare

May 6th - Are Reptilian Humanoids Living Among us?

May 7th - Like It or Not... This is What The New Human Looks Like

May 8th - Eating Only Onions for 24 Hours: How Many Onions Does it Take to Kill a Man?

May 9th - Unus Annus ASMR

May 10th - We Attempted to Create THICC Water

May 11th - Making Our Own Gravestones to Prepare For Our Inevitable Demise

May 12th - How Tall Can A Human Get?: An Impartial Review by 2 Average Height Men

May 13th - Mark Teaches Ethan Korean

May 14th - Bigfoot is Real and It Ate My Friend

May 15th - The End of Unus Annus is Almost Here...
(note- The Halfway point)

May 16th - We Explore the Unus Annus Subreddit for Your Delicious Memes

May 17th - How Big Can a Nuke Get?

May 18th - How Much Caffeine Does It Take to Kill a Man?

May 19th - Drinking Real THICC Water... How Bad Does It Taste?

May 20th - We Played Strip Poker
(note- Mark lost so badly. Ethan also cheated on the first game)

May 21st - Harnessing Our Yodeling Power to End the World aAs We Know It

May 22nd - Mark Cooks Blindfolded While Ethan Guides Him Through FaceTime

May 23rd - We Played the Newlywed Game While Consuimg That Which Will Kill the Other

May 24th - DIY Boob

May 25th - We Have the Best Bellies on Youtube

May 26th - The Unus Annus Confessional Booth

May 27th - DO NOT OPEN UNTIL 2080
(note- Mark will be 90 and Ethan will be 83)

May 28th - Only UNUS-es May Watch This Video
(note- Unus vs Annus. Most Likes to Win.)

May 28th - Only ANNUS-es May Watch This Video
(note- Annus vs Unus. Most Likes to Win.)

May 29th - Only Watch from 2:15 to 6:11 --- DO NOT WATCH ANY OTHER PART OF THE VIDEO
(note- Annus Won)

May 30th - DIY Wine

May 31st - Tearing a Phone Book in Half with Our Huge Manly Muscles

June 1st - 2 Complete Amateurs Enter a Body Building Competition

June 2nd - BLACK LIVES MATTER. Resources and How You Can Help in the Description.
(note- This video was 8 Minutes and 47 seconds of silence)

June 3rd - Crushing Watermelons Betwixt Our Mighty Thighs

June 4th - Morphing Our Bodies Into Superhero Poses

June 5th - Reacting to Your Hilarious Green Screen Memes

June 6th - Mark Teaches Ethan to Read with Hooked on Phonics

June 7th - Ethan Roasts Mark of 15 Minutes Straight

June 8th - There's Something Horribly Wrong with This Picture...
(note- When they made their own creepy photos)

June 9th - Attempting to Build IKEA Furniture Without Instructions

June 10th - Mark and Ethan Become United State Citizens

June 11th - We Made Fanart for Each Other

June 12th - Our Fans Try and Scare Us with Their Homemade Creepypasta

June 13th - Recreating Childhood Photos

June 14th - Will We Break the Boards... Or Will They Break Us?

June 15th - Finding the Most Cursed Image on the Internet

June 16th - Learning to Cry on Command to Increase Our YouTube Views

June 17th - Pee Sauna
(note- The end of quarintine videos. Second of the Pee Trilogy)

June 18th - Building IKEA's Hardest Piece of Furniture Without Instruction is Impossible

June 19th - Becoming One With the Horse

June 20th - The Ultimate Paper Airplane Showdown

June 21st - Creating Mark FISHbach
(note- Origin of Mermer

June 22nd - Leaning How to Lock Pick (FBI Please Don't Watch)

June 23rd - The Most Dangerous Shave

June 24th - Ethan Traps Mark's Soul in the Palm of his Hand

June 25th - Bear Trapping 101: An Elegant Knot For An Elegant Beast

June 26th - 2 Men In a Trench Coat Teach You How to Save Money at the Movies

June 27th - Building the World's First IKEA Boat

June 28th - Ethan Teaches Mark How to Swim

June 29th - 10 Miracle Products to Give YOU the Thiccest Jaw on Planet Earth

June 30th - 2 Dirty Boys Wash Their Filthy Mouths Out with Soap

July 1st - Mark is Guilty. Ethan Has the Proof.

July 2nd - Recreating Mark's Childhood

July 3rd - We Put an Apple Watch in a Rock Tumbler

July 4th - Dummy Thicc for Dummies | A Tale of 2 Butts | Pushing Our Butts Even Further Beyond

July 5th - Reverse Engineering a Kite to Steal the Idea of Electricity From Benjamin Franklin

July 6th - The Candy Bra Challenge

July 7th - Mark and Ethan Look at a Puppy for 10 Minutes

July 8th - Unus Annus Try Pole Dancing

July 9th - This Is Hiding On Your Body RIGHT NOW.

July 10th - Tasting Weird Food Combos: Pickles and Chocolate? Ice Cream and Soy Sauce?

July 11th - The Unus Annus Space Program

July 12th - The Egg Smashing Game

July 13th - Can You Bake a Cookie from Cookie Dough Ice Cream?

July 14th - Bleachus Annus

July 15th - Dunking Oreos In Literally Anything But Milk

July 16th - Preparing a 5-Star Meal for Our Youtube Famous Dogs

July 17th - DIY Teeth

July 18th - How to Escape from a Hostage Situation

July 19th - Does This Magnetic Skincare Routine Really Work?

July 20th - DIY Bed of Nails : OH GOD, PLEASE DON'T EVER TRY THIS

July 21st - The Human Mop

July 22nd - Can Sound Therapy Heal All Wounds?

July 23rd - This Is The Most Dangerous Children's Toy Ever Made

July 24th - Would Chica Save Us From Drowning?

July 25th - We Do It Better Than Icarus Ever Could

July 26th - The Beginning of The End
(note- 110 days left. Start of the Desert videos)

July 27th - The Annual Unus Annus Dunk Contest

July 28th - Ultimate Horseshoes

July 29th - A Serious Conversation Under the Stars
(note- Last of the Desert videos)

July 30th - Recharging Our Phones Using Only Brute Strength

July 31st - 5 Products to Grow Your Patchy Beard

August 1st - Mark Teaches Ethan How to Play the Trumpet

August 2nd - Playing Cards: The World's Deadliest Weapon

August 3rd - We Lubed Our Floor For a Sliding Competition

August 4th - Breaking Glass With Our Screams

August 5th - This is Goodbye
(note- 100 Days Left)

August 6th - Mark and Ethan Share a Drink

August 7th - The Wubble

August 8th - Mark and Ethan Shave Chica

August 9th - DO NOT TRY THIS UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES

August 10th - Judging Your Terrible Unus Annus Ideas

August 11th - Hydro Dipping a Baby

August 12th - Popping Popcorn with a High-Powered Laser

August 13th - Puberty Simulator

August 14th - Grip Strength Test: Loser Becomes the Winner's Butler for a Day
(note- Ethan "won" but Mark never became his Butler)

August 15th - Transforming Mark into the 8th Wonder of the World

August 16th - Momiplier Teaches Self-Defense

August 17th - Playing Children's Games in Total Darkness

August 18th - We're Better Than Dogs

August 19th - The Koala Challenge: TikTok's Intimate Couple's Trend

August 20th - 1 Gallon of Jello Nearly Broke Us

August 21st - Too Many Pickles
(note- The Video before the start of Camp Unus Annus)

August 22nd - Pitching a Tent in the Woods But There's a Bear 15 Feet Away
(note- Start of Camp Unus Annus. Mark was Blind while Ethan was Deaf)

August 23rd - How to Rescue a Cat from a Tree

August 24th - A Bear Attacked Us in the Middle of the Night

August 25th - How to Safely Bury Your Friend

August 26th - Team Building for 2: Trust Fall, Tug-of-War, and More!

August 27th - How to Start a Fire (except don't...)
(note- The infamous video where Unus appears at the window before Mark kills Ethan)

August 28th - Mark's Outdoor Escape Room

August 29th - Hunting HeeHoo

August 30th - Was 2020 a Bad Year for Unus Annus?
(note- End of Camp Unus Annus)

August 31st - Mark Gives Ethan a HOT (stone) Massage

September 1st - We Smell Every Smell

September 2nd - How Many Slaps Does It Take to Cook a Chicken?

September 3rd - 2 Boys 2 Poops

September 4th - Mark Teaches Ethan How to March in a Marching Band

September 5th - We Finally Drank Our DIY Wine

September 6th - 2 Adults Take a 4th Grade Math Test

September 7th - Making Snow Cones With Literally Anything but Normal Flavors

September 8th - We Attempts Pottery Without Amy's Help

September 9th - Can Plants Feel Pain?

September 10th - How Far Can We Chuck a 16lbs Rock?

September 11th - We Pierced Each Other's Ears

September 12th - We Ate Dog Treats So You Don't Have To

September 13th - We Accidentally Made an SCP While Amy Was Away

September 14th - BEYBLADE NUTBALL
(note- The Finale of the Nutball Trilogy)

September 15th - Making the Ultimate Unus Annus Burger

September 16th - Making Soda With Literally Anything But Soda

September 17th - Pee Soda
(note- The Finale of the Pee Trilogy)

September 18th - Learning to Use The Force

September 19th - Brick Soccer

September 20th - We Attempt to Make Holy Water

September 21st - Amy Sent Us a Mystery Box

September 22nd - Mark Knows What Ethan Did...
(note- Ethan cheated on the Grip Test Video)

September 23rd - This Video Will Never Make Sense

September 24th - We Attempt to Make UNHOLY Water

September 25h - We Will Churn Thy Butter

September 26th - Ethan Teaches Mark Gymnastics

September 27th - The Great Ice Cream Cake Race

September 28th - Mark Teaches Ethan to Wrestle

September 29th - Ethan Watches as Mark Achieves the Impossible

September 30th - Consuming the World's Hottest Chip

October 1st - This Video Went Completely Out of Control

October 2nd - The 1000 High Five Challenge

October 3rd - Bobbing For Apples But the Water Keeps Getting Thiccer

October 4th - Mark Breaks His Nose On An Aerial Hoop
(note- Was the second time in one week)

October 5th - Mark and Ethan Milk a Goat

October 6th - Shooting Archery ON A HORSE

October 7th - DIY Minesweeper

October 8th - Literally Finding a needle in a Haystack

October 9th - Drawing on Each Other's Backs in Total Darkness

October 10th - This is For FUN and NOT a Fetish
(note- They were in black bags with a vacuum to such out the air)

October 11th - Mark Conquers His Fear of Night Swimming
(note- Birth of the Gongoozler)

October 12th - The Painful Wolrd of Aerial Silks

October 13th - We Bought Every Grinch Costume on Ebay

October 14th - Pumpkin Taste Tier List

October 15th - Learn to Jump Higher in 16 Minutes and 16 Seconds

October 16th - Bobbing for Literally Anything but Apples

October 17th - This Video is Completely Unedited
(note- This is the video where they shoved Wax up their nose and Marks got stuck)

October 18th - Momiplier Tells Us True Scary Stories from Korea

October 19th - Pumpkin Spice "Challenge"
(note- Similar to the Cinnamon Challenge excpet with Pumpkin Spice and don't do this please)

October 20th - Mark and Ethan Build a Scarecrow

October 21st - Preassure Waching Our Sins Away

October 22nd - We Force Mark to Swin in the Ocean (HIS GREATEST FEAR)
(note- First of the Two Boat videos)

October 23rd - Fighting Fish to the Deathin in the Deep Blue Sea
(note- Second of the Two Boat Videos

October 24th - Cryptid Olympics

October 25th - Phasmophobia in Real Life
(note- Ghost hunt time)

October 26th - Edward Pumpkin Hands
(note- First Video in big spooky house)

October 27th - Blood Bath

October 28th - The Unus Annus Annual Costume Contest
(note- Second Video in big spooky house)

October 29th - Ethan Turns Mark into a Werewolf

October 30th - Ethan Kidnapped Mark
(note- Third Video in big spooky house. Ethan made Mark an escape room)

October 31st - The Truth of Unus Annus
(note- Final Video in the big house. They open the Custom Coffin and change from their clothes into their suits. 13 Days Left)

November 1st - Accepting the Truth
(note- They Accept they are going to die. They remain in their suits from this point onward)

November 2nd - The Unus Annus Last Supper

November 3rd - Being Brutally Honest with Each Other
(note- Mark cries)

November 4th - Recreating Every Single Unus Annus Video
(note- 45 minutes and 11 seconds. Longest video)

November 5th - All Our Video Ideas That Never Happened

November 6th - Who's Cutting Onions In Here???

November 7th - The 1st Annual Unus Annus Roast

November 8th - God's Fitness Test

November 9th - Saying Goodbye to All Our Guests

November 10th - Everything's Legal If You're Dead
(note- Cooking with Sex Toys 2)

November 11th - 7 Minutes in Heaven | 7 Minutes in Hell
(note- Ethan got heaven, Mark got hell)

November 12th - The Unus Annus Annual Sleepover
(note- The final video.)

November 13th - Goodbye.
(note- The final livestream.)

What the fuck is happening in Washington, D.C. right now?

The Christmas/New Years season is ripe for political strife in America's government, these Winter Congressional fights already led to shutdowns under Trump in 2018.
A lot of what happened this time is developing really quickly, and right now the clock is on McConnell to decide how to proceed next.
tl;dr Trump is pressuring McConnell and Congressional Republicans with government shutdowns on his way out the door to spite them for giving up on his bid to overturn the election. Democrats play their cards right and may be able to deliver increased stimulus & Democratic controlled Senate in 2021.
Here's the timeline.
--Dec. 20 - Dem's break through on Stimulus, Pelosi & Schumer reach deal with McConnell & Top Senate Republicans on critical covid relief, plan to attach the relief to Federal Spending Bill after Republican's mostly ignored Democrats calls for Stimulus in 2020.
After months of careful planning by Democrats, and a lot of nothing from Republicans, a bipartisan agreement reached for a stimulus deal that is attached to a largely unchanged Federal Funding Bill. The stimulus includes $600 payments to many Americans, funding for various programs from the CARES act, such as a $300/week for the PEUC Federal Unemployment program (only half the amount passed in the extremely effective package in March 2020) , $300 Billion to the substantially flawed Payment Protection Program (PPP), with the rest of the bill going towards critical funding to deal with the pandemic and providing stimulus to specific economic sectors.
This comes after tough debate over Stimulus checks and Federal Covid Aid in Congress, "Ron Johnson blocks $1200 Stimulus check amendment in Senate, Dec. 18 2020." just days before Senate sent the bill to the President's desk.
--Dec. 22, - Congress rushes to pass Federal Funding with Economic Stimulus, McConnell takes a win over Democrats as he largely gets his way in new Federal spending and meager economic stimulus.
After pretty much not negotiating with Democrats on stimulus after passing the CARES Act early in 2020, McConnell was able to pass a very slim economic stimulus (one in which large portions are going to the bad programs, aiding Republicans) without much play from the Democrats, who are working from behind since Republicans still control the Senate and the Presidency, until Jan. 20 2020, when Joe Biden will be sworn in as President.
--Dec. 22, 7:15 pm, Trump rebukes Congressional Republicans; calls for $2000 stimulus and budget cuts, President Donald Trump, in effort to help Georgian Senate Republicans, sends Federal funding bill back to congress and demands more direct payments and budget cuts.
Taking a break from his attempt to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election, Donald Trump posts a video on twitter calling for Congress to amend the Federal spending bill to include increased payments to Americans, and budget cuts, many of which his own administration requested for their budget. This is almost certainly in attempt to help Georgia Senate Republicans in their special election on Jan. 5 2021, after their Democratic opponents have called for $1200 payments, the same number in the CARES Act passed early in 2020.
--Dec. 22, 8:33 pm, Top Dems call Trump's bluff instantly, putting Rep. Leadership on the spot; Democratic House and Senate leaders almost instantly came in support of the President's proposal, stiff-arming McConnell and Republican leadership into a lose-lose situation.
https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1341557535732604935 https://twitter.com/SenSchumestatus/1341562357433163776
After months of Democrats counting their chickens and playing offense with little movement, Donald Trump, intentionally or not, has put a kink in McConnell's armor by forcing him to chose his own shitty outcome. From this point on, there are only a few avenues McConnel can go down.

Resend the Bill to Trump, risking a veto, ensuring a Government shutdown and 0 stimulus, and take the heat from Republicans & Democrats, endangering the chances for Republicans to win the Senate runoffs in Georgia.
Cave not only into not only Democratic Demands, but more than 3 times the amount you just passed through Congress, hoping it will give Republicans the boost they need or dare losing the senate.

Pelosi and Schumer have been keeping their hand secret mostly, allowing for some Progressive democrats to become frustrated at how long the stimulus was taking to negotiate, and how little the actual stimulus was. The Democrats' sentiment around Congress was mostly that another $1200 stimulus payment was the minimum American's needed to begin to address the Covid problem. Pretty hilariously though, even with tensions brewing between the Moderate and Progressive Democrats, on Dec 22, 11:18 pm https://twitter.com/SenSchumestatus/1341599067516907520, Schumer was publicly backing congresswomen AOC and Rashida Tlaib, progressive House leaders, in their aim to amend the Federal spending bill to include $2000 payments instead of $600.
--Dec. 23, Trump's threat to Funding Bill bring Federal Shutdown into question; Trump's call for Congress to renegotiate the federal spending bill could lead to the U.S. government having a partial shutdown on Dec. 23, as Trump prepares to leave Washington.
Now, we are to the present day. Don't get comfortable because we wont be here for long. Trump's unpredictable response has us leading to a possible government shutdown in less than a weeks time. If Congress can not get a bill on the President's desk to sign before Friday, large portions of the government will go unfunded on Monday, leading to layoffs of thousands of federal works, and slim chance a stimulus bill will be passed before the end of the year.

All of this is overshadowing the largest Senate Race in America History.
Incase you may have missed it, there is a Runoff election occurring in Georgia Right now for 2 Senate seats that will determine the Majority party in the Senate, and the American agenda at least until the 2022 Midterm elections.
Senators David Purdue Kelly Loeffler face Democratic opponents Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, where the two pairs share the same ticket in the Jan. 5 2021 elections.
Both Democratic candidates have backed Trump's call for $2000 stimulus payments to Americas, both Republican senators have refused to call for any Stimulus payments.
So.. what's next?
Its really unclear what is going to happen. If you are looking to bet on it, the safe choice is to assume that the Funding bill will eventually make it through congress, but will mostly likely be delayed by a week or two.
What's exactly next is up to McConnell, really. If he wants to cave to Trump, he can get it passed without a problem, but if he doesn't want to take the hit then he has the ability to let Trump let it take its time. Alternatively, McConnell may want to repass the law to make sure there is no fallout for the Georgian Republicans to deal with in their approaching election. In that case, Trump may just pocket veto the bill, and allowing the government to shutdown anyway.
All of this news is going by at the speed of light because of Twitter. It's amazing how fast the political battles are fought now. It's almost hard to keep it all straight.
I'm going to keep this updated as we learn more about everything going on. Gonna be a fun ride.
For this stretch of the journey, live updates from the House can be seen at https://live.house.gov/ they will have a livestream of all in session activity.
--Dec 23, 9:32 pm, https://twitter.com/GOPLeadestatus/1341934700219277313 House Republican's respond to House Democrat's amendment with statement that they will be countering with their Unanimous consent that includes desired Budget cuts
--Dec 24, 9:12 am, https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1342110985298075651 House Republican's deny Unanimous Consent, leading us into worst case for Republicans, No robust Stimulus before Georgia Runoff elections, giving Democrats powerful ammunition.

Dec 23 10 am,
- https://thehill.com/policy/finance/531565-house-gop-rejects-unanimous-consent-on-2000-direct-payments House GOP begin feeling pressure from Public over blocking quickest path to $2000 stimulus increase.
- https://twitter.com/i/events/1342121921836544001 News outlets react to conflicting Unanimous Consent agreements from Dems. and Reps., putting the first roadblock up for the federal funding bill.

--Speaker says House will meet again Monday Dec 28th

Bernie Sanders narrowly won the New Hampshire Democratic primary by a margin of about 4,000 votes, or less than 2 percentage points, over Pete Buttigieg, according to an NBC News projection.
Sanders, who represents neighboring Vermont, had been leading in the polls, so his victory wasn’t a surprise. But he and Buttigieg were closely bunched with the third-place candidate, Amy Klobuchar, allowing all three to claim either victory or solid momentum going into the next round of voting.
At the same time, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., were headed toward poor showings and failed to get any delegates, NBC News projected.

Submissions that may interest you

SUBMISSION	DOMAIN
Sanders edges Buttigieg in New Hampshire, Dem front-runners	apnews.com
Bernie Sanders Wins The New Hampshire Democratic Primary	huffpost.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary	thehill.com
Hey Everyone, Bernie Is 2-0': Sanders Wins First-in-the-Nation Primary. After nabbing popular vote victory in Iowa, Sanders takes the Granite State. "What we have done together here is nothing short of the beginning of a political revolution," Sanders declared.	commondreams.org
Bernie Sanders Has Won The New Hampshire Primary. What’s Next?	rollingstone.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Primary	nytimes.com
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire	nytimes.com
Sanders wins New Hampshire Primary	nbcnews.com
Socialist Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire	dailywire.com
New Hampshire primary: Bernie Sanders wins, CBS News projects	cbsnews.com
Sanders projected to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary	jpost.com
New Hampshire Feels the Bern: Sanders Wins First-in-the-Nation Primary	commondreams.org
Bernie Sanders projected to win New Hampshire primary: NBC News	cnbc.com
New Hampshire primary: Bernie Sanders projected to win as Democrats look to clarify muddled race	abc7ny.com
Bernie Sanders wins the New Hampshire Democratic primary	nbcnews.com
Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg locked in another tight race in New Hampshire	cnn.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary, making him the new national frontrunner	businessinsider.com
Bernie Sanders just won the all-important New Hampshire primary	vox.com
NBC News Exit Poll: Income divides Sanders and Buttigieg supporters in New Hampshire primary	nbcnews.com
New Hampshire: Bernie Sanders leads in early results from key primary	theguardian.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Democratic primary	sbs.com.au
Bernie Sanders sweeps New Hampshire, eyes oligarch	njtoday.net
Sanders wins New Hampshire primary in narrow victory over Buttigieg	marketwatch.com
'Hey Everyone, Bernie Is 2-0': Sanders Wins New Hampshire Primary	commondreams.org
With New Hampshire Behind Him, Sanders Looks to Nevada Workers as Vegas Union Bosses Rally Against Him	theintercept.com
Sanders on NH victory: Win is 'beginning of the end for Donald Trump'	thehill.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire Democratic primary; Buttigieg, Klobuchar are top moderate candidates	washingtonpost.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary - 'We are putting together an unprecedented, multi-generational, multi-racial movement, and this is a movement from coast to coast'	independent.co.uk
Sanders wins three-way contest in New Hampshire primary	wsws.org
Another split decision: Sanders narrowly beats Buttigieg in New Hampshire - Amy Klobuchar captures headlines with strong third-place finish; Warren and Biden far back in fourth and fifth	salon.com
Democratic field narrows after New Hampshire but race is far from settled - The Democratic presidential primary now appears to be a battle between Bernie Sanders and any candidate who can stop him	theguardian.com
Sanders edges Buttigieg in New Hampshire, cementing Democratic front-runners	denverpost.com
Bernie Sanders' uneasy New Hampshire win	axios.com
Sanders Wins In New Hampshire, Narrowly Beating Buttigieg	aljazeera.com
Bernie takes New Hampshire as Buttigieg, Klobuchar fight to be his main opponent - Sanders emerges as frontrunner, but dropoff from 2016 suggests his campaign falls far short of a "revolution"	salon.com
Sanders wins vote; Buttigieg leads in total delegates	cnn.com
Bernie Sanders has crushed his Left-wing rivals while moderates fight each other - The battle among centrists to find an alternative is further boosting Bernie Sanders	telegraph.co.uk
How Sanders Held Off Buttigieg And Klobuchar In New Hampshire	fivethirtyeight.com
Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely	fivethirtyeight.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary, narrowly beating Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar	latimes.com
Bernie Sanders a limp leader after barely squeaking by in New Hampshire	nypost.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire, DOJ turmoil and Westminster names new top dog: The Morning Rundown	nbcnews.com
Sanders Is Winning Because He's Popular - Voters like the senator from Vermont—it’s socialism that makes them nervous.	theatlantic.com
Bernie Sanders Got More Young Voters in New Hampshire Than Everyone Else Combined	vox.com
Fueled by Diverse Working Class Voters, Sanders' New Hampshire Win Celebrated as 'Major Victory for Progressive Movement'	commondreams.org
Did Bernie Sanders underperform in New Hampshire?	vox.com
Watching Bernie Sanders Claim Victory In New Hampshire	newyorker.com
New Hampshire resident tells MSNBC that its anti-Bernie Sanders coverage made her 'angry,' inspired her to vote for him in primary	theblaze.com
With Back-to-Back Wins for Sanders, Pundits Proven Wrong in Iowa and New Hampshire	commondreams.org
What New Hampshire's exit polls tell us about the primary - Bernie Sanders cleaned up among younger voters but was spurned by older ones. For Amy Klobuchar, it was the opposite.	politico.com
Sanders rolls forward amid moderate divide - His triumph in New Hampshire also illuminated his vulnerabilities.	politico.com
In New Hampshire and Beyond, Medicare for All Is Fueling Sanders’s Rise	truthout.org
Ex-Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein laid into Bernie Sanders after his New Hampshire win, saying he'll wreck the economy and let Russia 'screw up the US'	businessinsider.com
'Do They Never Learn?': Progressives Rip Media Attempts to Downplay Bernie Sanders Win in NH Primary	commondreams.org
Why Bernie Sanders's New Hampshire primary win should terrify you	washingtonexaminer.com
Former Goldman Sachs CEO rips Sanders after NH win: 'He'll ruin our economy'	thehill.com
Democrats eye Nevada, South Carolina after Sanders wins in New Hampshire	reuters.com
Bernie Sanders’ New Hampshire Victory Is a Big Deal for Socialism in America. Here's What To Know About the History of the Idea	time.com
Analysis: Bernie Sanders' New Hampshire win ups pressure on moderates to coalesce	pressdemocrat.com
Bernie Sanders lost among New Hampshire voters focused most on beating Trump New Hampshire shows Bernie Sanders still has an “electability” problem.	vox.com
What changed for Sanders in New Hampshire since 2016? The electorate, for one.	washingtonpost.com
Health Insurance Giant Reacts to Bernie Sanders' Slim Win	finance.yahoo.com
Bernie Sanders claimed victory in the New Hampshire primary. Here's what that win means	abc.net.au
Progressives to Voters Skeptical of Bernie Sanders: This 'Big Tent' Movement Is a Winning and Practical Choice — "Sanders is much more pragmatic and less ideological than his opponents would like to admit."	commondreams.org
Bernie Sanders’ New Hampshire Win Was Fueled By the Sunrise Movement . Organizers with the Sunrise Movement and New Hampshire Youth Movement mobilized the youth vote in New Hampshire, helping Bernie Sanders win the primary.	teenvogue.com
New Hampshire 2020: In Supreme Irony, the Horse Race Favors Bernie Sanders	rollingstone.com
What revolution? New Hampshire results show Bernie Sanders base of support shrinking	washingtonexaminer.com
Bernie Sanders wins New Hampshire primary; Buttigieg leads in delegate count	fox8.com
The Night Socialism Went Mainstream - Bernie Sanders’s victory in the New Hampshire primary marks a turning point for Democratic politics.	theatlantic.com
Elon Musk tweeted a bizarre 'Sonic'-themed meme of Bernie Sanders after he won the New Hampshire primary	businessinsider.com
SC’s Joe Cunningham slams Bernie Sanders’ ‘socialism’ ahead of 2020 Democratic primary	postandcourier.com
Investors bet on Sanders after New Hampshire win as Biden plummets: Smarkets	finance.yahoo.com
Bernie Sanders and No One are tied for winning the Democratic Primary according to 538	projects.fivethirtyeight.com
'South Carolinians don’t want socialism': Democrat slams Bernie Sanders ahead of state primary	washingtonexaminer.com
Sanders Would Bring the Center-Left’s Collapse to U.S.: Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic nomination wouldn’t be a freakish occurrence outside the experience of other advanced democracies.	politico.com
‘Terrified of Bernie’: Sanders’ socialism spooks swing-district Democrats	washingtontimes.com
AOC’s Speech Snub, ICE Remarks Rankle Bernie Sanders Campaign- AOC’s people were said to be unhappy at being called on the carpet and expressed concern over Sanders’s Joe Rogan embrace—but now AOC is back on the stump in New Hampshire.	vanityfair.com
Bernie Sanders's New Hampshire Win Confirms He is the Front-runner, Like It or Not	teenvogue.com
Why Does Mainstream Media Keep Attacking Bernie Sanders as He Wins?	gq.com
Bernie Sanders on His Big Win in New Hampshire	msnbc.com

My guess is that, no, that won't happen. It's not like we have evidence of congressional successes on behalf of either progressive candidates, or candidates who support progressive policies, in 2018 and 2020 or anything. Or like we watched an openly declared socialist rise to become a political icon in 2015.
2022:
Like I said in the title, regardless of reality, Republicans are fucking livid right now. And not the wussy Democrat "blue wave" brand of livid, but a level of anger I have not seen since the rise of the Tea Party / Freedom Caucus, which flipped twice as many house seats as the blue wave in 2018.
If I had to guess, I would say that this anger will first be present in the two senate races in Georgia, in early January, similar to the Democrats' victory with Doug Jones in 2017. Will the Democrats' success in Georgia in 2020 inspire more to turn out for their two senate candidates? For sure. But will the shocking loss of Georgia, and the need for two special elections, wake a lot of Georgia Republicans who feel like they fell asleep at the wheel? Definitely.
2022 will most likely be a bloodbath. Gerrymandering disproportionately already benefits Republicans overall, and the revenge vote is going to be something to behold. Also, Republicans tend to do consistently better in non-presidential election years, spanning all the way down to county and local elections, as well.
For anyone who remembers Obama's victory in 2008, nobody, if asked in mid-to-late 2009, would ever guess that Republicans were going to come back with the force of 1000 suns and nuke the House of Representatives. And that was just due to backlash over Obamacare / ACA for Christ's sake. Trump received 10 million more votes as the incumbent, and the majority of these people (I can't find the source, but it's somewhere around 68%) genuinely believe many elections are fraudulent BS.
2024:
With 2024, who knows. If Biden steps down, giving us Kamala Harris, she is tremendously unpopular and unlikable, and will most likely run in a manner similar to Biden: by hiding, staying low, using platitudes, and being vague. I strongly suspect Biden cannot withstand four more years of cognitive decline, and especially not while fulfilling such a stressful position.
Reinforcing and Expanding Class-Based Progressive Policies:
However, back to 2022, if I had to bet, I would guess that Republicans take full congressional control, transitioning from a split congress, to a fully opposed congress. Short of bipartisan bills, the Biden (and later potentially Kamala) presidency is going to be similar to Obama from 2011-2017, where little of any significance gets done short of that which can be managed through executive orders.
The only hope of preventing a 2022 bloodbath may be replicating Bernie's platform, and running on economically progressive policies (with dashes of popular socially progressive policies, too). Poor- and working class-oriented economically progressive policies seem to be the best bet here. And lord knows, any help will be needed, because I haven't seen Republicans like this since 2010, and that is saying a lot for a party whose supporters are in a near-permanent state of being furious.

PsychoMarket Recap - Wednesday, November 4, 2020
Stocks rose today, continuing the week’s rally, as investors took in developments from the 2020 presidential election, which has so far produced no clear winner. The presidential race is extremely close, with a number of consequential battle states, like Pennsylvania and Nevada unlikely to produce results until at least tomorrow. The flurry of news made for a volatile overnight session, that at one point saw the Nasdaq futures spike from being slightly down to over 4% up.
The Nasdaq (QQQ) finished the day 3.85% up, the S&P 500 (SPY) finished 2.18% up and the Dow Jones (DIA) finished the day 1.35% up.
As of this afternoon, according to the Associated Press, Joe Biden has 248 electoral votes to Pres. Trump’s 214. Candidates need 270 votes to win. However, because of the surge in mail-in ballots this election due to the pandemic, counting the votes is expected to take longer than normal. Despite the race being to close to call, last night, President Trump falsely declared victory while simultaneously questioning the veracity of the election process, due to the ongoing count of mail-in ballots. Trump indicated that he was willing to challenge attempts by states to keep counting ballots after election night, despite it being well known that the surge in mail-in ballots would cause complications and slow counting. “We’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop,” Trump said to a crowd of supporters at the White House. “We don’t want them to find any ballots ... and add them to the list. We’re were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.” Biden’s campaign has suggested it would be willing to fight Trump in court.
Joe Biden also too expressed confidence that the vote would go his way. “We feel good about where we are. We really do. I’m here to tell you tonight we believe we’re on track to win this election.”
In the Senate elections, the so-called “blue wave” many pundits predicted did not happen. As of this morning, Democrats only managed a net gain of one seat, whereas they needed at least three to establish a majority. Democrats missed opportunities to flip seats where they could. South Carolina and Montana were rated toss-ups, and Texas was only rated slightly Republican. If Democrats broke through in one or more of those races, it would have likely portended a good night for them. Instead, Republicans appear to have won all of them handily:
Highlights

California voters carried Uber and Lyft to victory, overwhelmingly approving Proposition 22, a ballot measure that allows gig economy companies to continue treating drivers as independent contractors. Uber, Lyft, and the delivery service DoorDash designed the measure to exempt the companies from a state labor law that would have forced them to employ drivers and pay for health care, unemployment insurance, and other benefits. As a concession to labor advocates, the initiative offers a wage floor and limited benefits to drivers.
Health-care stocks led in the 30-stock Dow, with UnitedHealth Group rallying 9% and Amgen up more than 6%. Industrials including Caterpillar and Dow Inc. The index was up more than 550 points, or 2%.
The communication and information technology sectors of the S&P 500 performed very well today also.
The Nasdaq extended its gain to more than 4%, as each of Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet, Apple, Netflix, and Microsoft surged
Trading volumes in currency markets were unusually low for an election night, Mr. Tew said, in part because investors and traders were reluctant to put on new positions given the uncertainty.
Bank shares dropped Wednesday, a sharp departure from the broader market as investors bet that another round of stimulus relief will be hard to come by. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index was down 3.3% around midday. The broader S&P 500 rose 3.1% in volatile trading.
Biogen Inc (BIIB) shares rose for the day because FDA briefing documents showed the company had provided enough data to support the approval of its Alzheimer's drug. Which is a pretty big deal, shares were halted at one point finishing up the day about 45%.
Cassava Sciences (SAVA) share were also training higher, finishing 25% up after presenting positive phase 2b data on Alzheimer's study.
AGCO (AGCO) had target raised by:
- Morgan Stanley $84 to $95 EQUAL WEIGHT
- BMO Capital Markets $90 to $110 OUTPERFORM
- Royal Bank of Canada $88 to $104 OUTPERFORM
Alibaba (BABA) had a price target raise by Raymond James from $320 to $335 at STRONG BUY.
Booking (BKNG) had a price target raise by Credit Suisse GRoup from $2,150 to $2,200 at OUTPERFORM. Notable because stock is at $1,670.
Catalent (CTLT) had several price target raise by:
- Morgan Stanley from $98 to $115 OVERWEIGHT
- Royal Bank of Canada from $98 to $105 OUTPERFORM
- Jefferies Financial Group $107 to $115 BUY
- UBS $105 to $115 at BUY
Humana (HUM) had a price target raise by:
- Oppenheimer from $440 to $460 OUTPERFORM
- Stephens from $450 to $490 OVERWEIGHT
Amazon (AMZN) had an upgrade by China Renaissance Securities from HOLD to BUY and a price target raise from $3,360 to $4,000
Baidu (BIDU) had a nice upgrade from Barclays from EQUAL WEIGHT to OVERWEIGHT, and a price target raise from $140 to $170
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had a nice UPGRADE from Goldman Sachs (GS) from NEUTRAL to BUY and price target raised from $84 to $96. Nice call, will be keeping an eye on this one.
Sysco (SYY) with target raise by Credit Suisse from $76 to $80 at OUTPERFORM. Stock currently around $60
Alleghany (Y) with price target increase by Deutsche Bank (DB) from $785 to $800. Notable because the stock is around $580 right now.

"The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" - Winston Churchill

Introduction

Welcome to the /politics polling discussion thread for the general election. As the election nears, polling of both the national presidential popular vote and important swing states is ramping up, and with both parties effectively deciding on nominees, pollsters can get in the field to start assessing the state of the presidential race. Please use this thread to discuss polling and the general state of the presidential or congressional election. Below, you'll find some of the most recent polls, but this is by no means exhaustive, as well as some links to prognosticators sharing election models.
As always though, polls don't vote, people do. Regardless of whether your candidate is doing well or poorly, democracy only works when people vote, and there are always at least a couple polling misses every cycle, some of which are pretty high profile. If you haven't yet done so, please take some time to register to vote or check your registration status.

Polls

Below is a collection of recent polling of the US Presidential election. This is likely incomplete and also omits the generic congressional ballot as well as Senate/House/Gubernatorial numbers that may accompany these polls. Please use the discussion space below to discuss any additional polls not covered. Additionally, not all polls are created equal. If this is your first time looking at polls, the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings page is a helpful tool to assess historic partisan lean in certain pollsters, as well as their past performance.
Several polls are in the field, so we won't have a full picture of the field until next week when more are expected to be released. Until then, here are the polls since August 16th.

Poll	Date	Type	Biden	Trump
USC Dornsife	8-30	National	54	39
YouGov	8-29	National	47	41
Morning Consult	8-29	National	50	44
Morning Consult	8-29	National	52	42
USC Dornsife	8-29	National	52	40
Emerson College	8-28	Massachusetts	69	30
Trafalgar Group	8-28	Michigan	45	46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-28	National	48	38
Franklin & Marshall College	8-27	Pennsylvania	49	42
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-26	National	47	38
Ipsos	8-26	National	44	37
Benenson Strategy Group	8-26	National	50	39
Rasmussen Reports	8-26	National	46	45
YouGov	8-26	National	50	41
Roanoke College	8-26	Virginia	53	39
Ipsos	8-26	National	47	40
Change Research	8-26	Wisconsin	49	44
Change Research	8-26	Arizona	49	47
Change Research	8-26	Michigan	50	44
Change Research	8-26	Florida	49	46
Change Research	8-26	National	51	43
Change Research	8-26	North Carolina	48	47
Change Research	8-26	Pennsylvania	49	46
Trafalgar Group	8-25	Wisconsin	45	46
Public Policy Polling	8-25	Delaware	58	37
Public Policy Polling	8-25	New York	63	32
Public Policy Polling	8-25	Florida	48	44
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Léger	8-24	National	49	40
Morning Consult	8-24	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-24	North Carolina	49	46
Public Policy Polling	8-24	Texas	48	47
Trafalgar Group	8-24	Louisiana	37	54
YouGov	8-24	National	50	39
TargetSmart	8-24	Ohio	47	46
YouGov	8-23	National	52	42
Morning Consult	8-22	National	52	43
Morning Consult	8-22	National	51	43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-22	National	49	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Pennsylvania	48	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Florida	49	41
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	North Carolina	44	46
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Michigan	50	38
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Wisconsin	49	39
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-21	Arizona	47	38
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-21	National	46	38
Civiqs	8-21	Wisconsin	51	45
Civiqs	8-21	Pennsylvania	51	44
Civiqs	8-21	Michigan	49	46
Civiqs	8-21	Ohio	47	47
DKC Analytics	8-21	New Jersey	52	33
Saint Anselm College	8-20	New Hampshire	51	43
Muhlenberg College	8-20	Pennsylvania	49	45
Global Strategy Group	8-20	Texas	47	45
Echelon Insights	8-20	National	51	38
Echelon Insights	8-20	National	53	39
Data for Progress	8-20	National	50	41
Morning Consult	8-20	National	47	36
Morning Consult	8-20	National	49	39
Trafalgar Group	8-19	Minnesota	46	46
Ipsos	8-19	National	48	40
Ipsos	8-19	National	45	36
ALG Research	8-19	Louisiana	43	50
Rasmussen Reports	8-19	National	48	44
YouGov	8-19	National	50	40
Harris Insights & Analytics	8-18	National	45	39
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Wisconsin	47	47
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Florida	49	49
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Pennsylvania	50	46
OnMessage Inc.	8-18	Arizona	48	51
GQR Research (GQRR)	8-18	Michigan	52	43
Léger	8-17	National	51	35
Morning Consult	8-17	National	50	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	43
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-17	National	51	42
Morning Consult	8-17	Wisconsin	49	43
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	8-17	National	48	40
Landmark Communications	8-17	Georgia	44	47
YouGov	8-17	National	49	38
YouGov	8-17	National	50	41
YouGov	8-17	Texas	40	47
ABC News	8-17	National	54	44
ABC News	8-17	National	53	41
ABC News	8-17	National	53	41
SSRS	8-16	National	50	46
YouGov	8-16	National	52	42
East Carolina University	8-16	North Carolina	46	46
NBC News	8-16	National	50	41

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Prognosticators are folks who make projected electoral maps, often on the strength of educated guesses as well as inside information in some cases from campaigns sharing internals with the teams involved. Below are a few of these prognosticators and their assessment of the state of the race:

Cook Political Reports - Charlie Cook's race ratings are well regarded in the political field, and he's been in the business for a while. Cook is known to incorporate both public and nonpublic (ie. internal polling) information in his projections. Also covers (and is perhaps better known for) Senate and House races.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato has also been in the political prediction business for a while now, and the team at the UVA Center for Politics has been fairly successful in past cycles. Towards the end of the election cycle, Sabato has a policy of making a call in each state, refusing to leave any race in the tossup category. Also covers Senate and House races.
Inside Elections - Inside Elections, run by Nathan Gonzales, is the successor to Stu Rothenberg's Rothenberg Political Reports, which used to be a part of Roll Call. This prognosticator did fairly well in 2018, though Rothenberg himself boldly (along with some other pundits) predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump's path to the presidency was nonexistent. Also covers Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Presidential numbers aren't up yet but they have Senate, House and Gubernatorial races.
RRH Elections - Red Racing Horses Elections is a site founded by former conservative-leaning members of the Swing State Project community. Despite the conservative nature of the commentary, like DKE, the race predictions tend to be fairly neutral, if slightly bearish for Republicans. Like the Crystal Ball, RRH will call all races before the election so that none are left in the tossup category. The presidential rankings have not been published but they do cover Senate, House, Gubernatorial and Row Officer (statewide elected officials, such as state Attorney General, Secretary of State etc.) races.
Media predictions - CNN | U.S. News | NPR | POLITICO

Polling Models

Polling models are similar to prognosticators (and often the model authors will act like pundits as well), but tend to be about making "educated guesses" on the state of the election. Generally, the models are structured to take in data such as polls and electoral fundamentals, and make a guess based on research on prior elections as to the state of the race in each state. Below are a few of the more prominent models that are online or expected to be online soon:

FiveThirtyEight - after months of work, the model is live! 538's team of analysts have put together a beast of a forecast for 2020. It runs 40,000 simulations of the election and uses that data to come up with a projected winner out of 100 sampled outcomes. It also breaks down the projection to show potential electoral college results, popular vote share, tipping point state likelihood, and it can even be broken down into state-level analytics.
Princeton Election Consortium - this is the model run by Dr. Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University. This model has run in the past two cycles as well, though Sam Wang famously said he'd eat a bug if Donald Trump won the election because his model predicted no path to victory for the eventual winner of the 2016 election. Also includes projections for Senate and House.
JHK Forecasts - the earliest model on the scene this cycle. Jack Kersting's model is one of the newer ones this year and also includes projections for Senate and House.
The Economist - this is the model run by G. Elliott Morris, who previously had a midterm election model under The Crosstab.
Niskanen Center - Rachel Bitecofer's projection, which only seems to update a couple times a cycle. Part of this has to do with Bitecofer's central argument that there are generally no swing voters, and electoral fundamentals drive the outcome of the election. This was put to the test in the 2018 midterms, where Bitecofer very early on predicted a Democratic pickup of 40-45 seats in the House, which fell about where the election ended up.
Lean Tossup - a foreign model from Canada. This model did relatively well in the 2019 Canadian election, but this appears to be the first time they've tried forecasting the US Presidential election. Also includes Senate and House projections.
Primary Model - Helmut Norpoth's model does not actually change with inputs anymore. The outcome it predicts, stated as a 91% chance for President Trump to win reelection, is premised entirely on the primary vote totals in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries from earlier this year. Despite being a bit of an outlier against other models, this one was among the only to forecast that then-candidate Donald Trump was a favorite to win election in 2016, and has been applied to correctly predict the winner of 5 of the past 6 presidential elections.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are betting markets where people put money on the line to estimate the likelihood of one party winning a seat or state. Most of these markets will also tend to move depending on polling and other socioeconomic factors in the same way that prognosticators and models will work. Predictit and Election Betting Odds are prominent in this space, although RealClearPolitics has an aggregate of other betting sites as well.

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GSA Tells Biden That Transition to Presidency Can Finally Begin, r/politics and r/news Reacts™ and Over a Thousand Comments Get Removed as a Result

politics

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4: COMMUNISM SCHOMMUNISM

And just like that, an election was stolen and our Republic has begun its decline to communism. Trump was the last hope and even he doesn't have a backbone it seems.

"You have no idea what communism even is. Holy shit."

"The distribution of wealth. Aka, welfare, ubi, and ultimately economic failure"

CODA/POST-CREDITS

news

Passage 1

Passage 2

Passage 3

EXITUM (YAWN)

The Trump Campaign's Accusations of Voter Fraud: An Exhaustive Analysis and Fact Check

The Best Books of 2020 Winners!

Best Debut of 2020

Best Literary Fiction of 2020

Best Romance of 2020

Best Mystery or Thriller of 2020

Best Short Story Collection of 2020

Best Graphic Novel of 2020

Best YA of 2020

Best Sci-Fi of 2020

Best Fantasy of 2020

Best Nonfiction of 2020

A list of every Unus Annus video name

There's a political fight to write in the history books cooking up in Washington, D.C. right now; Pelosi and Schumer just outplayed McConnell by latching onto Trump's call to raise Stimulus to $2000, spiting senate republicans in the process.

What the fuck is happening in Washington, D.C. right now?

Megathread: Bernie Sanders in narrow win over Buttigieg in the New Hampshire Democratic primary

Submissions that may interest you

Regardless of reality, the revenge of Republicans who believe they were cheated is going to be biblical in 2022 and possibly 2024. Looking at the success of progressive candidates in 2020, moving Democrats leftward may be the only hope.

Here is a Market Recap for today Wednesday, November 4, 2020. Please enjoy!

General Election Polling Discussion Thread (August 30th, 2020)

Introduction

Polls

Election Predictions

Prognosticators

Polling Models

Prediction Markets

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